Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[J. J.]

I'm increasingly thinking that Santorum may lose this to Ron Paul.

Maybe, but I don't think it will have a great impact on Tuesday.

[J. J.]

Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

[J. J.]

Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

Nate Silver seemed to think high turnout would help Santorum or possibly Paul.

It doesn't seem to be helping Santorum.

[J. J.]

It's looking like Romney, with a very weak Santorum showing.

[J. J.]

CNN:
8% in
Romney: 31%
Paul: 27%
Santorum: 24%
Gingrich: 14%

Cautious

It shouldn't be a major  influence on Super Tuesday.

[J. J.]

I'm amused that the three small counties in the SE corner have gone for three different candidates.

Considering that second place went to three different people as well.

[J. J.]

All the big Santorum counties still out - but so is King. Even if Santorum gets some solid results, it's not going to be enough to overtake.

It is starting to look grim for Santorum.

[J. J.]

Does each precinct select delegates to the convention? Does each precinct have one delegate, or how are they selected? Is it first by the post in each precinct, or proportional, or what?  I read Green Papers, and these are the questions I had.

At the convention, are delegates to the convention chosen proportionately?

I think these are delegates to a state convention that then chooses delegates to the RNC.

[J. J.]

I don't see Santorum making a comeback.  It'd even be a really far longshot for Paul.  I'm guessing the networks will be calling it soon.

They should call it now.  This is a small bloodbath.

Fortunately, for Santorum, it won't make too much of a difference for Super Tuesday.

It is a very good night for Mittens.

Congratulations Politico!

[J. J.]

Romney declared by CNN.  Double digits with Paul in second.

[J. J.]

Congratulations Politico Winfield!

Fixed.

Congratulation Politico and Winfield.  

[J. J.]

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Santorum's beaten Paul in every moderately sized county, on both sides of the mountain. None of the counties outstanding fit the profile of the counties that Paul has beaten Santorum.

Spokane. 

[J. J.]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

Actually, a number of the early Mormons were of German extraction (including a few distant relatives).

[J. J.]

Aren't the odds of Paul coming in second close to about 90% now?  Chalin is an empty county no?  What Pierce has left given the totals of what it had with 43% in, is anemic compared to King, with 50% out.

It has a population of 66,000.

[J. J.]

It looks like Romney by 11 points.

[J. J.]

It looks like Romney by 11 points.

More, if anything.  Romney is outperforming his state average in both King and Pierce (+9% and +5%, respectively).  Based on a simplistic extrapolation, the remaining vote probably splits about 57% King, 35% Pierce and 8% Chelan.

Strong night for Romney, even if he's likely to barely beat his Colorado showing.

If this is the precursor to Super Tuesday, the race could well be effectively over.

[J. J.]

Chelan:

Romney 209
Santorum 194
Paul 181
Gingrich 99
Uncommitted 44
Other 1

Told you that you could make a good case for Romney, Santorum or Paul winning Chelan

AP doesn't have it yet.

[J. J.]

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Then Santorum stands in third, and he's still not showing well out west.

80% of Pierce is in.  Paul is still leading Santorum by 0.6 points.  Romney is leading Paul by 11.

[J. J.]

Isn't it a little suspicious that the GOP is able to release the King County results in exactly 25% margins?

No.

[J. J.]

Pierce now 100% reported, and the last results were good enough for Santorum that he now trails Paul by just 178 votes statewide.

All remaining votes are now in King County, where there have been two dumps: one a modest win for Paul over Santorum, and one a Paulslide.

If it holds, Santorum drops and Romney increases.

The good news for Santorum is that this is a Saturday, with other news and it probably will have limited effect on Super Tuesday.

The bad news is, it is probably reflective of momentum.

[J. J.]

Isn't it a little suspicious that the GOP is able to release the King County results in exactly 25% margins?

No.

Well I guess that settles that!

Alcon explained perfectly.

[J. J.]

Well, Romney's pal Ron Paul managed to get 2nd place. Could this primary be over after Tuesday?

Fox reported Paul was running anti-Romney commercials.

Also, congratulations to the WA GOP on a freakishly accurate turnout estimate.  They predicted 50,000 people and 50,764 people voted.

Yes, there was a lot of freakishly accurate stuff in WA.

[J. J.]

The story was third on NBC, with the focus on Ohio.  Santorum got a break there.