Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[bgwah]

I had a dream that Newt Gingrich won, complete with a legislative district map.

[bgwah]

I'm kind of tempted to go just because it's probably the only chance to see my precinct's result. But I wouldn't want to vote, just watch!

[bgwah]

I'm kind of tempted to go just because it's probably the only chance to see my precinct's result. But I wouldn't want to vote, just watch!

Before the WA-GOP "adjusts" the result, you mean?

Of course. Part of the adjustment is making detailed results unavailable.

[bgwah]

Apparently someone sent out a robocall saying the caucuses were cancelled. No idea who it is/who was targeted.

So we're already out-shenaniganing the other caucuses. Before voting even starts. Take that, Nevada!

[bgwah]

Unofficial results of the combined caucus at the school I was at: 96 santorum, 89 Romney, 68 Paul, 36 Gingrich.

Is this Snohomish County or Cheney?

[bgwah]

The results I'm seeing on Twitter look good for Romney.

Eastern Seattle suburbs "heavy for Romney"

Lakwood HS, Marysville: Santorum 96, Romney 89, Paul 68, Gingrich 36

Garfield City, Whitman County: Romney 24, Santorum 23, Gingrich 6, Paul 4

Reports from Tri-Cities of strong Romney support, little Santorum

Selah caucus in Yakima County split between Romney and Santorum

Mill Creek seems Romney/Paul split with some Gingrich and Santorum supporters

Ugh, yeah... That sounds like a Romney win. I always regret being brave and bold with my predictions.

[bgwah]

David Irons says Romney got 60-70% in Sammamish.

[bgwah]

Yeah, this looks over already. Hopefully I'm wrong. Losing 2 points in my own state, how embarrassing.

[bgwah]

Redmond looking like another Romney win.

[bgwah]

Redmond: Romney 133, Paul 109, Santorum 45, Gingrich 21, undecided 6, Colbert 1.

[bgwah]

Heritage HS (Vancouver): Paul at 200, Romney 188, santorum 147, 46 Gingrich, 15 undecided

Bremerton: Split between Romney and Paul, poor showing by Santorum

[bgwah]

We're getting reports of delegates from some areas, and actual voters from others. I'm guessing that explains much of the discrepancy.

[bgwah]

Here's my map from 2008, for reference:

[bgwah]

^ It's possible some of the numbers are out of date... Do you have a source?

[bgwah]

Okay, I've updated Pacific and Klickitat's percentage.

[bgwah]

Starting the Atlas-style map:

[bgwah]

G=Gingrich
R=Romney
P=Paul
S=Santorum

[bgwah]

Starting the Atlas-style map:

updated

[bgwah]

The % reporting is probably inaccurate. King County has small precincts (and a lot less Republicans), distorting the number a bit.

[bgwah]

Whatcom for Santorum. lol Lynden.

[bgwah]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

[bgwah]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

You can still use polls to determine who has the momentum. Santorum had the momentum going into Iowa, hence my >20% Santorum prediction. Polling showed us momentum was going to Romney hard in WA and I ignored it.

[bgwah]

OK, trying to answer my own question on Mormons.....

This map:

link

claims to show the %age of people in (nearly) each county in the USA who are Mormon.  Not a perfect correlation, but those southeastern counties where Romney is winning big seem to be the most Mormon.  The most Mormon county in the state is Adams, and Romney has a whopping 58% of the vote there (which I think might be his highest %age in the state).  So I presume that explains the divide between northeastern and southeastern Washington.

Sorry for answering sooner, but yes, that's largely correct.

Another big boost for Romney in that area stems from the fact that much of it is majority Hispanic. Adams County is 59% Hispanic, much of it recently established (still mostly immigrants and/or under 18). So 13% Mormon is probably something like 1/4th or 1/3rd of the voting eligible population. And then of course an even higher proportion of Republicans, and even higher proportion of people who would bother to go to a caucus.

[bgwah]

I forget if this has been confirmed --- are they using old or new districts?

[bgwah]

Does anyone remember what turnout was in the 2008 Democratic caucus? The official numbers we have on Atlas are delegate totals, not turnout.