Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Here are the threads on the 2008 caucus fiasco, in case you're feeling nostalgic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70234.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70313.0

Summary?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

They turned away a third of the voters?

Good grief... why the hell would you do that?  You can always figure out a way to fit more people.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The results I'm seeing on Twitter look good for Romney.

Eastern Seattle suburbs "heavy for Romney"

Lakwood HS, Marysville: Santorum 96, Romney 89, Paul 68, Gingrich 36

Garfield City, Whitman County: Romney 24, Santorum 23, Gingrich 6, Paul 4

Reports from Tri-Cities of strong Romney support, little Santorum

Selah caucus in Yakima County split between Romney and Santorum

Mill Creek seems Romney/Paul split with some Gingrich and Santorum supporters

Ugh, yeah... That sounds like a Romney win. I always regret being brave and bold with my predictions.

Brave and bold was how I won Iowa.  It's also how I lost Maine and Michigan (My HOME STATE!).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Does anyone know what time official numbers will start coming out?

They tweeted "around 5 PM" two hours ago.  But I'm not sure if they mean 5 PM EST or PST...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Does anyone know what time official numbers will start coming out?

They tweeted "around 5 PM" two hours ago.  But I'm not sure if they mean 5 PM EST or PST...

PST. It is a PST state.

Correct.  They just tweeted me back!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Wait, is it possible that Paul wins this? Or are we just looking at a strong second over Santorum?

If Paul wins, I'll even be more pissed.  I thought about predicting him, but after Maine, decided not too.  If he actually wins Washington, I'll have lost all hope in my predicting talent.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

From somewhere in Whitman County, allegedly.  Too many votes to be a precinct; my guess is it's the Pullman caucus site.  I like "Willard"

And like Morden said - the Paul voters are more likely to show good results.  It's safe to assume this is a Paul supporter uploading results.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Paul wins, should I be happy we get 4 people on the map or sad that I don't get 2 points?

That was my thought before Maine (although I'd have gotten the points)... it hasn't happened with the GOP since 1968, I believe.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I haven't seen Uncommitted totals reported much so far, although that might explain the cryptic "Yacl" on the right end of the Whitman County paper.

It's "Und" for Undecided.

It's time for a new prescription, Alcon...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Twitter feed is now filling up with Ron Paul stolen election complaints.

'Twas inevitable.

Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Apparently, the Bellevue-based 41st had a total turnout of 130.  These turnout reports don't quite gel...

What is that - a precinct?  Is that high or low?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

Not if supporters of some candidates were more likely to show up early or shove their way to the front than supporters of others.

The die-hard Paul supporters would get there early.  The college kid Paul supporters would show up late.

Again, I said hypothetically.  But I really don't think it has a huge impact on the result.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

Nate Silver seemed to think high turnout would help Santorum or possibly Paul.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

The twitterverse. No guarantees, I suppose.

WSRP's twitter said 5:00.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Do we have a feature on the site where you can do county map generation, or do you still have to do it with Paint/some other image editor?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Not looking good for Santorum.  I think I blew this one pretty badly.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Is there anybody giving good results other than CNN?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Is there anybody giving good results other than CNN?

Google, as always.

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results/2012/gop-primary/wa

I often find Google to be behind CNN.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm amused that the three small counties in the SE corner have gone for three different candidates.

Yes.  Santorum, Romney, Paul, going from west to east.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Looks good for Romney.  Looks good for Santorum to at least finish in 2nd too though.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I don't see Santorum making a comeback.  It'd even be a really far longshot for Paul.  I'm guessing the networks will be calling it soon.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

You can still use polls to determine who has the momentum. Santorum had the momentum going into Iowa, hence my >20% Santorum prediction. Polling showed us momentum was going to Romney hard in WA and I ignored it.

That is true... although Colorado is still unexplained.  Plus, I thought PPP's Romney momentum was overstated in WA, due to what I considered was too high of Mormon numbers and I thought the momentum from AZ/MI wouldn't play as much of a factor today as it did in PPP's poll.