Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Wisconsin+17]

I was surprised when I saw the PPP polling with Santorum doing so well. My model had WA in the Romney column 6 months ago.

Any idea why the polls were so far out? These results show WA as pretty close to ME which is what you would expect.

[Wisconsin+17]

Who thought he could win this?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Santorum. They look like different colors because one is shaded very weak and one is very strong. Seen enough.

Calling WA for Romney. Congrats Romney.

[Wisconsin+17]

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WA's been in my safe Romney column for quite some time now. I was surprised by PPP's calls for Santorum. Didn't seem to square with his support in general.

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Not sure how that dump is good news for Santorum.

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All the big Santorum counties still out - but so is King. Even if Santorum gets some solid results, it's not going to be enough to overtake.

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WA is crazy.

Santorum - 51 percent

Romney - 58 percent

Ron Paul - 52 percent

Santorum is in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
Paul is in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
Romney is in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 2 percent out of 4th in Klickitat.
Gingrich is in 2nd,3rd, and 4th.

The only thing left is a county where Gingrich is in 1st, and Romney is in 4th.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Given an effective range of 5 percent? About 1/4k or so, for the exact match.

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Big. Up 30 percent.

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I'm not from WA, but why on earth is the state so polarized?

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If King and Pierce are in and Santorum is tied with Paul, he should have no problem getting there.

Kitsap was 2-1 Santorum over Paul. All the Santorum strong counties are all that's left out there, with King in.

[Wisconsin+17]

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True, surprised they haven't already.  Turnout is really high. All the Romney areas are in but Santorum's areas are all outstanding. This is frontloaded Romney at his best.

Oh, Paul's not going to finish second - all his areas are in and Santorum is beating him in King + Pearce.  

[Wisconsin+17]

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The only areas that have gone solidly Paul are sparsely populated areas. Spokane is a large rural city. Even in Seattle and the environs - also heavy Paul areas. he's not getting any margin vs Santorum. He's up, by what 1 vote in King? He's not going to win vs Santorum unless he beats Santorum in heavily populated areas.  

All the areas outstanding voted Bush in Bush vs Gore, and are fairly heavily populated areas, matching up with Kitsap.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Look at the county by county results. Some of Romney's highest support is on the other side of the mountains, and some of Santorum's highest support is in bordering counties. If you look at 2008 results, it's positively schizophrenic.

Nowhere have we seen 3 candidates getting 50+ percent in a county and finishing last in another different county.

If the mountain effect were at work, we'd expect to see what we saw in Michigan - heavily Romney on the coast, heavy Santorum in the interior.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I called it at 8 percent.

So far I've not missed a state.

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Santorum's beaten Paul in every moderately sized county, on both sides of the mountain. None of the counties outstanding fit the profile of the counties that Paul has beaten Santorum.

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Yep. Congrats Politico.

People asked me how it was possible for Mitt to win the nomination with less that 40 percent? Example A - Washington.

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Conspiracy!

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ANH.

I'm very much an Alec Guinness Kenobi, and not a Liam Neeson Kenobi.

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Politico wins the Internets.

That is *exactly* how I picture you two.

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All we have are unofficial stuff on Spokane. Plus I'm questioning whether Spokane is Paul territory to.

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And there we go Whatcom.

What was I saying again?

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Really? Shows you how often I've seen the prequels.

Ah, the other Scottish dude. Ewan McGregor.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Indeed. I was wrong about Snohomish. I didn't expect Snohomish to break for Paul over Santorum. However, Santorum has just equalized. So unless the votes outstanding break for Paul, I don't think Paul can win this.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I haven't even seen the Prequels other than the last one.

For me there are 4 star wars videos.