Bradford West by-election - 29th March

[You kip if you want to...]

37% swing. Record?

Second highest since universal sufferage after Simon Hughes in Bermondsey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bermondsey_by-election,_1983

[netzero19]

37% swing. Record?

Second highest since universal sufferage after Simon Hughes in Bermondsey.

Wow that's got to be a black eye moment..

[Hash]

What can this huge upset be attributed to?

[Leftbehind]

Galloway's vote share is the highest for this constituency since at least 1970 (Wikipedia doesn't have the figures from 1955-1966).

1959
56.24% Conservative & National Liberal
43.76% Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Swings are kind of meaningless when minor parties are involved.

What can this huge upset be attributed to?

Galloway's campaign was focused on Afghanistan and related issues and it appears that this was a sort of protest vote over that.

There have been some vague hints about certain other things already, but they would only have had an impact on the margin (rather than the result as such) and it would be better if we avoid mentioning them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a minor point of trivia, only two constituencies recorded swings to the Tories in 1997: Bethnal Green & Bow and Bradford West. Both have now been represented (if that's the right word and I'm fairly sure that it is not) by Galloway.

[doktorb]

Anyone who bet on George at 33/1 is drinking tonight....

[doktorb]

37% swing. Record?

Largest increase in share of the vote since Bermondsey

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Awesome to see the moderate heroes in the Labour Party spanked by Galloway.

[YL]

Did anyone turn out in the suburban part of the constituency? Looks like the Tower Hamlets mayoral election.

Galloway claimed that "I have won a big victory in every part of the constituency, including in areas many people said I should not even compete."  I'm not sure we'll ever know exactly what happened, but I think there must have been a tendency for Tory supporters to vote to embarrass Labour.  Note that huge fall in the Tory share of the vote, even bigger than the Labour fall.  Some of that will be the evaporation of their vote in the inner city, but I don't think that explains them going down to 8%.

[joevsimp]

Anyone who bet on George at 33/1 is drinking tonight....

Aye, wish I had, just like this time last year when Ireland beat England in the cricket world cup

although I did actually think that could happen, this on the other hand..........!

maybe whoever did can chip in for some pie for the rest of us

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyone who bet on George at 33/1 is drinking tonight....

Aye, wish I had, just like this time last year when Ireland beat England in the cricket world cup

although I did actually think that could happen, this on the other hand..........!

maybe whoever did can chip in for some pie for the rest of us

I wonder if anyone was crazy enough to predict not just that Galloway would win but that he would break 55%?

[afleitch]

So yeah, that election was historic. I guess what we should be considering is why, in a largely forgotten by-election the turnout was so high and the result was so suprising. There are of course a 'variety' of explanations are there not?...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So yeah, that election was historic. I guess what we should be considering is why, in a largely forgotten by-election the turnout was so high and the result was so suprising. There are of course a 'variety' of explanations are there not?...

Indeed there are, but as the Honourable Member for Bradford West has a liking for gentlemen who take silk, it would be for the best if further speculation on this matter is kept as cursory as possible.

[minionofmidas]

Did anyone turn out in the suburban part of the constituency? Looks like the Tower Hamlets mayoral election.

Where do you think Hussein's vote came from?

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, hadn't Hussain been considered a very strong candidate early on in this thread? Hmmm...

[You kip if you want to...]

Someone's been courting the BNP vote.

[minionofmidas]

And the LD barchartophile vote!

[2952-0-0]

Someone's been courting the BNP vote.

Just an aside, haven't all right-of-centre European parties been doing this for a while now?

[minionofmidas]

Someone's been courting the BNP vote.

Just an aside, haven't all right-of-centre European parties been doing this for a while now?

They always have.

[Silent Hunter]

Bit of a nasty surprise to hear this result. One can't draw too much from this of course, but it's certainly going to be well remembered.

[You kip if you want to...]

Patronising how the Tories always trot out Baroness Warsi in seats with high levels of minorities, int'it?

[You kip if you want to...]

I should hope Labour start manning the barricades in Hodge Hill, given Byrne's announcement. Although, of course, it's not exactly nailed on that he'll be the candidate for mayor.

[minionofmidas]

I just hope Brum will elect Salma Yaqoob and not George Galloway. 'cause who knows, maybe he'll be continuing his tour of Labour Britain and not stand for reelection in Bradford West?

[Silent Hunter]

Channel article on the two bigger swings against Labour

Worth pointing out Respect got half the total number of votes in 2010 than they did in 2005.