Bradford West by-election - 29th March

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If Galloway runs, he'll push the Liberals into 4th.

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The proposed new Bradford West is essentially a different constituency to this one. And more of a joke than I realised at first; Toller with Bingley Rural? lol.

Just looking at the notional numbers. 40-34-13, that's the Tories at 40. That alone tells me it's a joke boundary.

Would probably go for Labour in a general tomorrow, mind. It's one of their "must wins" in 2015.

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If Galloway runs, he'll push the Liberals into 4th.

Really? Respect never have neverhad much support in Yorkshire, and GG's almost a liability these days IMHO

Both true; I find it a bit surprising they never had much success in Bradford, but they didn't: the highest Respect share I can find in a Bradford ward is 11% in Little Horton in 2007.  They didn't even have that many candidates.

However he might not need that much to beat the Lib Dems.  Look at those 2011 results: pathetic everywhere but Manningham, and poor enough there given they were defending it.  I don't think their deposit is safe.

Yeah, the Libs have been down (on average) by about 6% in the by-elections this parliament. Easily far enough to fall to 4th here if Respect get a big name, and i'm assuming that there was a lingering (by that, I mean tiny) anti-war still with the LDs in 2010, left over from 2005.

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Galloway's candidacy confirmed according to Look Leeds North.

UKIP got 2% in 2010, they could possibly hold their deposit (or come close) here. Libs in 5th

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Wouldn't be shocked if they finished behind Galloway and UKIP, to be fair.

Have nominations closed or are the BNP just not bothering? Such a sign of how much in dire straights they are that they can't find someone (or can't afford to run someone?) in Bradford.

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If anyone's interested, here's the data for all the by-elections so far in this parliament. Of course, freakish results like the massive Lab-Lib tactical vote in Oldham East & Saddleworth mess this up quite a bit.


An election projection, just for fun, if these results were to happen at a general election (on the proposed boundaries, with notional gains):
Labour - 344 (+113)
Conservatives - 193 (-104)
Liberal Democrats - 40 (-8)
Plaid - 1 (-1)
SNP - 6 (nc)


And, of course:

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Manchester Central'll be up next. Liberal Democrat gain, yeah?

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(This one's a joke).

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According to someone on Twitter Ladbrokes have cut the odds for Galloway winning to 10-1.  It would be amusing (though still I suspect unlikely) if he beat the Tories.

Any particular reason? This campaign seems dull as anything. Wouldn't be shocked if he finished a solid second though.

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Galloway down to 7/1. Surely he won't win, but he'll almost definately push the Liberals into 4th (or 5th, depending on UKIP's showing).

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Postal votes are rumoured to be "50/50".

Labour spin doctors doing some expectations management. There's no way, whatsoever, of anybody knowing that.

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This is real....

http://www.twitvid.com/LGVHY

Baffled by that...

But, then again.

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Sky journo at Bradford West predicting on Twitter
Labour
George
Tories

Although, anyone could've seen that one coming. Personally, i'm predicting a struggle for 4th as well.

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LabourList concurring with Sky journo's prediction.

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Win or lose, i'm still predicting a swing from the Tories and the Liberals to Labour.

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http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/50087/george_the_muslim%3F.html

Just lovely.

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When will we most likely have a result?

Media being told 1am.

So... probably more towards 2 or 2:30ish.

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Turnout very low. Possible low 30s. "Noticably large heaps" of postal votes for Galloway.

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Sorry to sound like a complete and utter hack, but if Labour are doing so badly tonight, I can't imagine what the numbers'll be like for the ConDems...

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"An MP": George is doing "very well".

From Sky journos.

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Sorry to sound like a complete and utter hack, but if Labour are doing so badly tonight, I can't imagine what the numbers'll be like for the ConDems...

I suspect some Tories may have voted Galloway in the hope of embarrassing Labour.

A few years ago I'd have been ambivalent, but I am hoping Labour hold it.  That Galloway letter doesn't deserve to be part of a winning campaign, and a Labour embarrassment in a seat like this (even if it could easily be written off as a seat with a history of weird swings) would give the Government a break they don't deserve.

Galloway never ceases to disgust me. As someone descended from Pakistani Muslims, that letter is just downright... disgusting. Vile.

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Imran getting thrashed in Toller (his ward) apparently. Apparently George has a 2:1 advantage (WTF!?).

LabourList reminds us the Respect generally does better in postal votes.

Hmph, this is the seat that swung to the Tories in 1997.

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Liberal rumoured for 5th place.

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BBC saying it's Labour. Rumors saying the Libs have lost their deposit (shocker).

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BTW, change08, are you a muslim yourself? Or is your Pakistani heritage only part of a larger 'package' ?

Not a muslim myself, but a fair portion of my family are including grandparents and a few aunts and uncles.