Bradford West by-election - 29th March

[YL]

Here are the 2011 (from the Council website, repeated from the other thread), 2010 (also from the Council website) and 2008 (from Andrew Teale's website) Council election results in the constituency:

City
2011: Lab 64%, Con 28%, Green 5%, LD 3%
2010: Lab 64%, Con 21%, LD 8%, Respect 4%, Green 3%, UKIP 1%
2008: Lab 64%, Con 21%, LD 9%, Green 6%

Clayton & Fairweather Green
2011: Lab 56%, Con 30%, Green 8%, LD 6%
2010: Lab 40%, Con 27%, LD 17%, BNP 11%, Ind 6%
2008: Con 37%, Lab 31%, BNP 21%, LD 9%, UKIP 2%

Heaton
2011: Lab 48%, Con 26%, Green 21%, LD 4%
2010: Lab 37%, Con 30%, Green 17%, LD 11%, Respect 4%
2008: Con 37%, Green 32%, Lab 21%, LD 10%

Manningham
2011: Lab 72%, LD 20%, Green 5%, Con 3%
2010: Lab 60%, LD 28%, Con 8%, Green 5%
2008: Lab 43%, LD 40%, Respect 7%, Con 5%, Green 4%, Norman Scarth 1%

Thornton & Allerton
2011: Con 47%, Lab 38%, Green 12%, LD 3%
2010: Con 39%, Lab 30%, LD 15%, BNP 11%, UKIP 4%
2008: Con 42%, BNP 25%, Lab 20%, LD 11%, Democratic Nationalist 1%

Toller
2011: Lab 81%, Con 12%, Green 5%, LD 2%
2010: Lab 57%, Con 31%, LD 6%, Respect 3%, Green 2%
2008: Con 36%, Lab 36%, LD 24%, Green 5%.  (Con majority was 8.  The Tory councillor elected has since defected to Labour.)

Going further back, it gets weirder; as I said in the other thread, in 2004 (which had all up elections, so each ward elected three councillors) all six wards in the current constituency elected at least one Tory.  (Thornton & Allerton and Clayton & Fairweather Green elected three Tories each; Manningham elected one each of LD, Lab and Con; City and Toller both 2 Con, 1 Lab; Heaton 2 Con, 1 Green.

[YL]

If Galloway runs, he'll push the Liberals into 4th.

Given what happened in the last Yorkshire by-election, the Lib Dems might be quite pleased with that.

On the other hand, if they were beaten by Norman Scarth...

[YL]

If Galloway runs, he'll push the Liberals into 4th.

Really? Respect never have neverhad much support in Yorkshire, and GG's almost a liability these days IMHO

Both true; I find it a bit surprising they never had much success in Bradford, but they didn't: the highest Respect share I can find in a Bradford ward is 11% in Little Horton in 2007.  They didn't even have that many candidates.

However he might not need that much to beat the Lib Dems.  Look at those 2011 results: pathetic everywhere but Manningham, and poor enough there given they were defending it.  I don't think their deposit is safe.

[YL]

Via UKPollingReport, UKIP have a candidate: one Sonja McNally, who was the Green (!) candidate in Heaton in 2010 and 2011.

[YL]

Galloway's candidacy confirmed according to Look Leeds North.

[YL]

Via Andrea on UKPollingReport:

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Alan Hope is also supposedly going to stand for the Raving Loonies (he's listed on the Wikipedia page, and mentioned on UKPR).  So at the moment we have Green, UKIP, Respect and Loony in addition to the big three.

[YL]

Anyways, what chance of another lost deposit for the LibDems? Worse, what chance of finishing below the Incredible Human Cat?

How well is Galloway actually likely to do?  His candidacy seems thoroughly opportunistic (when has he previously shown any interest in Bradford?) but he obviously still has high name recognition and might (I don't know) have some appeal in some parts of the community in the inner city areas.  (If he doesn't, his opportunism looks misjudged, as he could end up with an embarrassingly bad result.)  Third place wouldn't surprise me.

As for the Lib Dems, they ought do do better than in Barnsley -- they have some history here, even if they did do awfully in 2011, and have chosen a Bradford councillor who apparently has some profile in the area -- so I'm minded to think they will keep their deposit, but not by that much.

If there's no BNP or similar candidate, UKIP could do quite well with some of the more racist voters in the west of the constituency.  Third wouldn't surprise me for them either.

[YL]

It looks like the candidates so far mentioned in this thread are the only ones, so there are eight: Hussain (Lab)
Whiteley (Con)
Sunderland (LD)
Galloway (Respect)
Islam (Green)
McNally (UKIP)
Hope (Raving Loony)
Craig (Democratic Nationalists)

(The BBC Yorkshire political reporter, Len Tingle, has a Twitter feed which implies he's seen the official list and mentions the Democratic Nationalist as the 8th.)

We should get confirmation later today.

[YL]

This by-election has not been especially high profile.

Not many of the ones in this parliament have been, to be honest.  They've all been fairly predictable; the seat's recent history suggested there was a chance this one might not have been, but it doesn't seem to have worked out that way.  (Egg on my face if George Galloway triumphs next Thursday )

[YL]

According to someone on Twitter Ladbrokes have cut the odds for Galloway winning to 10-1.  It would be amusing (though still I suspect unlikely) if he beat the Tories.

[YL]

Galloway's letter for Bradford Muslim voters
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/50087/george_the_muslim%3F.html

That's bizarre.  I still hope he beats the Tories though...

William Hill apparently have Galloway at 3-1 to win.  I'd presume this isn't because they know something the rest of us don't, just that he's been hyped up and people have started betting on him.

[YL]

From Twitter:

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[YL]

When will we most likely have a result?

Labour List says between 1 and 2am; I suspect that is optimistic.

[YL]

Turnout very low. Possible low 30s. "Noticably large heaps" of postal votes for Galloway.

Someone on Twitter says the Tories say that it's 60-40 Galloway/Labour on postal votes.  Not the most reliable source.

[YL]

BBC report just now suggests that there isn't really much information yet.  More tweets suggesting Galloway doing well, but what Al said.

[YL]

Sorry to sound like a complete and utter hack, but if Labour are doing so badly tonight, I can't imagine what the numbers'll be like for the ConDems...

I suspect some Tories may have voted Galloway in the hope of embarrassing Labour.

A few years ago I'd have been ambivalent, but I am hoping Labour hold it.  That Galloway letter doesn't deserve to be part of a winning campaign, and a Labour embarrassment in a seat like this (even if it could easily be written off as a seat with a history of weird swings) would give the Government a break they don't deserve.

[YL]

Another tweet dodgy rumour says 1. Respect 2. Labour 3. UKIP 4. Tories.  I suspect this isn't based on a representative sample: remember the constituency is quite diverse.

[YL]

Sky seem to think that Galloway is going to win.

[YL]

Still Twitter, but suggestions that Labour have conceded.

[YL]

Sky just now with rumours of Galloway near 50%, winning "three Muslim wards" (presumably City, Manningham, Toller).

[YL]

The BBC report was much more cagey than Sky.  I suspect Galloway has indeed won, but there have been past examples of premature media "calls".  I also remember Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding in 2005 (when he won, of course).

[YL]

A 37% swing would put Respect 32% ahead of Labour.  So we could be looking at something like Respect 53%, Lab 21%, Con 13%, rest 13%.

(Obviously that's assuming that Sky's sources are close to reliable.)

[YL]

I've been doing other things and stuff seems random and contradictory; can someone write what the latest is know to be?

Anyways, if there's one thing this has confirmed (no matter the actual placings or whatever) is that solid is not actually solid if also significantly Muslim; the capacity to produce huge votes sometimes does not equal serious party loyalty in general and we're wrong to assume otherwise. Of course in the case of this area that was known anyway even if the general direction this time is a surprise.

Known?  Nothing, I think.

Rumoured (and presented as close to fact by Sky News): Galloway winning by a mile.

[YL]

Galloway is on Sky now saying he won "every part" of the seat.

[YL]

Did anyone turn out in the suburban part of the constituency? Looks like the Tower Hamlets mayoral election.

Galloway claimed that "I have won a big victory in every part of the constituency, including in areas many people said I should not even compete."  I'm not sure we'll ever know exactly what happened, but I think there must have been a tendency for Tory supporters to vote to embarrass Labour.  Note that huge fall in the Tory share of the vote, even bigger than the Labour fall.  Some of that will be the evaporation of their vote in the inner city, but I don't think that explains them going down to 8%.