Caused by the resignation of Marsha Singh on the 2nd of March 2012.
Bradford West covers the north western third of the Yorkshire city of Bradford, a former centre of the textile industry that once gloried (?) in the nickname of Worstedopolis. It is a working class constituency with a huge Asian population (mostly from Azad Kashmir) and a long and utterly depressing list of social problems. There are some more suburban (and whiter) middle class areas in the west of the constituency, but these don't greatly alter its general tone. Bradford West is, as you would expect, currently a safe Labour constituency (majority of 14pts in 2010) and the by-election is not expected to be all that competitive. Most of the interest is likely to surround the battle to be selected as the Labour candidate.
Attentive readers will have noted the word 'currently'. Bradford West's status as a safe Labour seat dates from 2010 when Singh nearly doubled his majority. This is not a particularly common state of affairs and requires some explanation, meaning that the past must be explained before the present can be described.
The current constituency of Bradford West only really dates from 1974, but the name is much older. Bradford West was the name of ILP leader Fred Jowett's Manningham-based constituency from 1906 until 1918, and also of a largely suburban and generally Tory constituency that existed from 1955 until 1974. Bradford lost a seat in the early 70s and the resulting remap threw together the Labour incumbent for Bradford East (Edward Lyons) and the Conservative incumbent for the old Bradford West (John Wilkinson) triggering a tight contest - an important one given the closeness of the February 1974 election - that was won by Lyons, who went on to more than double his majority in a re-match in October. Lyons, who very much on the Right of the Party, was an attentive constituency MP and greatly increased his majority again in 1979 as Asian voters turned out in unprecedented numbers in reaction to certain comments made by Margaret Thatcher on the issue of immigration. Lyons might have been popular with his constituents, but had a difficult relationship with most Party activists in the city and defected to the SDP in 1981. He was defeated in 1983 (polling 27% of the vote; the SDP ran someone else in 1987 and polled 11%) with Max Madden (formerly the MP for Sowerby) reclaiming the constituency for Labour. It is probably fair to say that Madden was not an especially high profile MP even in his own constituency, but by 1992 Bradford West looked like the rock-solid seat its demographics would suggest it to be. But things took a turn for the surreal before the 1997 election:
Bradford West ended up being one of only two constituencies to record a swing to the Tories in 1997, with the Labour majority falling from 19.4% to 8.5%. The constituency spent the next decade on the list of marginals, though was never truly close. Exactly why this happened is something of an open question, but certain facts can be established with a degree of certainty. The first is that unusual electoral patterns began to manifest themselves in parts of the constituency before the selection farrago was resolved (Toller ward was something like the only Tory gain from Labour in the entire country in 1995). The second is that both things were clearly linked to the existence of
biradari (spellings vary) networks (essentially male kinship networks) amongst the Kashmiri community in Bradford. The third is that the selection of a Sikh was perhaps slightly controversial to some people in the constituency. The fourth is that poll rigging has been an issue in Asian communities in Britain since the early 1990s at least, while the fifth is that the extent of this is hard to prove one way or the other.
Normality (or something that looked like it; perhaps not quite the same thing) began to return with a minimum of obvious fuss in 2006 as most Asian wards in the city started swinging towards Labour (despite national conditions) a process that continued with the General Election result in the constituency. At which point it becomes possible to describe the present.
At the core of Bradford West are three inner city wards; City, Manningham and Toller. All three wards are extremely working class and heavily Asian, all three wards now vote heavily Labour. City is slightly different to the others as it includes the University and large numbers of students, but that's just a detail. When people think of Bradford, they're usually just thinking of these three wards. The other wards in the constituency have less in common. Clayton & Fairweather Green is basically a working class residential area and is still pretty white; it's an essentially Labour ward that has sometimes been lost in dreadful years (though not always). The BNP have polled well in the past. Heaton is a bit of an odd duck; it used to be utterly middle class and very Tory, but has changed a great deal in recent years. It had a brief spell as a Green stronghold in local elections, but has been solidly Labour recently. Thornton & Allerton is a slice of middle class white flight suburbia and has normally been a rock solid Tory ward, though the BNP mounted a shockingly close challenge in 2006.
Time for a few random statistics.
Past Results
2010: Labour 45.3, Con 31.1, LDem 11.7, BNP 3.4, RUC 3.1, Green 2.3, UKIP 2, DN 1.1
2005: Labour 40.1, Con 31.7, LDem 18.2, BNP 6.9, Green 3.1
(notional Lab 39.7, Con 31.4, LDem 19)2001: Labour 47.9, Con 37.1, Green 6.9, LDem 6.3, UKIP 1.1, AL 0.5
1997: Labour 41.5, Con 33.0, LDem 14.8, SLP 3.4, Ref 2.9, Green 1.9, BNP 1.8, Trot 0.5
Majorities before 1997
1992 Lab 19.4, 1987 Lab 15.2, 1983 Lab 6.8, 1979 Lab 17.2, 1974O 11.3, 1974F 4.6
Will add majorities for previous constituencies in the same area at a later date.
2001 Census Stats
% Muslim - 37.6
% Pakistani - 34.9
% White British - 49.9
% in Managerial Occupations - 10.8 (England figure was 15.2)
% in Professional Occupations - 9.4 (England figure was 11.2)
% in Process, Plant & Material Moving occupations - 12.4 (England figure was 8.4)
% in Elementary Occupations - 16.4 (England figure was 11.
% Employed in Manufacturing - 17.6 (England figure was 14.
% Socially Rented - 19.5 (about average)
% Born outside EU - 21.9 (
much higher than average, obviously)
Unemployment Statistics
Unemployment Rate: 9.0
JSA Claimant Count: 7.4
JSA Claiments per Vacancy Available: 7.3
Total Economically Inactive: 41.8
Earnings
Gross weekly pay for full time workers: £394.6p (national average: £503.1p).
Candidates
Early days yet, so all is speculation. Well, the name of a
certain Manchester councillor has been linked with a possible vacancy here for months. The Deputy Leader of Bradford Council (Imran Hussain; represents Toller) is also known to be interested. And by 'interested' I mean that all the Labour councillors in Bradford West have already endorsed him. I think we can be fairly sure that the candidate will be Asian and will be Muslim.
Don't know for other parties.
*The British General Election of 1997, p. 192.
