MA-SEN: Scott Brown leads by 8

[nkpatel1279]

Even if Scott Brown gets re-elected in 2012, he is likely to face another tough re-election campaign in 2018.  US Rep Joseph Kennedy 3rd.

[nkpatel1279]

Even if Kerry decides to retire in 2014. The likely Democratic nominee will be either Patrick-D who is going to complete his 2nd and final term as Governor or Liz Warren-D- her loss in 2012 is going to be by a narrow margin and she is running against a popular charismatic incumbent. 2014 is going to be an open seat election and the likely Republican nominee is not going to have the same stature and charisma Brown-R has.
The Republican nominee is either going to be Charlie Baker or Richard Tisei.
Kennedy is less likely to run for higher office after 1 term in the US House.

[nkpatel1279]

Brown-R is popular at a personal level but he is facing his first US Senate re-election campaign in a Presidential Election campaign where Democratic voter turnout is going to be high. Against Romney-R, Obama-D is going to win the popular vote in MA with less than 60 percent of the popular vote. (57-42)
Brown-R will defeat Warren-D with less than 55 percent of the popular vote. (52-47).
If Obama-D recieves over 60 percent of the popular vote in MA then Brown-R is going to have a much tougher time getting re-elected.