The Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Political Junkie Material (for printing out):

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC%20News_2012%20Super%20Tuesday%20Guide_FINAL.pdf

I don't think their poll closing time is correct on North Dakota.  If I have time, I'll post more detailed poll closing time information tonight, including specifics on the caucus states.

[Mr. Morden]

Current national weather map:

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/nationalforecast/index.html

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So, rain/snow in Idaho?  Well, doesn't really matter one way or the other, as Romney's going to win it regardless.  Show also in Alaska, but looks like nice weather in the rest of the Super Tuesday states.

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the details I can find on the times for the caucus states:

North Dakota

The state is split between Central and Mountain time.  Instructions here:

http://www.northdakotagop.org/caucus/

indicate that people can show up at their caucus between 5:30 and 8pm local time, with 8pm corresponding to either 9pm or 10pm ET, depending on which time zone.  It says they'll post live results starting at 8:30pm Central / 9:30pm Eastern.

Idaho

Caucus locations are listed here:

http://www.idaho-republican-caucus.com/idaho-counties.html

Every county starts their caucuses at 7pm local time, but part of the state is in Mountain time, and part is in Pacific time, so that corresponds to either 9pm or 10pm ET, depending on which time zone.

This website:

http://idgop.org/caucus-results/

says "Caucus results will be posted here as early as 8:30 pm Mountain Time", which means 10:30pm Eastern.

Alaska

This article:

http://www.alaskapublic.org/2012/02/28/alaska-republican-caucuses-approaching/

says the caucuses take place between 4pm and 8pm Alaska standard time, which translates to between 8pm and 12am Eastern.

Meanwhile all the polls in the primary states will be closing at 8pm Eastern at the latest.  And caucuses tend to count their votes much slower than primaries.  So it looks like there could be a big gap in the evening between the primary results and the caucus results.

[Mr. Morden]

And here are poll closing times for the primary states, translated into Eastern time:

7pm: GA, VT, VA
7:30pm: OH
8pm: MA, OK, TN

At least, I think those are all correct.  Let me know if you spot a mistake.

[Mr. Morden]

I won't be online at the time, but remember that the exit polling organization shares their data with the networks at 5pm Eastern.  (Any supposed exit poll leaks before that are certainly fake.)  At about 5:20 or 5:25pm Eastern or so, we'll probably start to get AP stories about early exit data, with useless stuff like what % of voters thought the economy was the top issue or something.  Then the TV networks start talking about the exits as well.  But none of the topline numbers will be out until voting ends in a given state.

[Mr. Morden]

The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.

As Erc explains here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3200303#msg3200303

and here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3210230#msg3210230

the delegates do in fact seem to be bound by the results of the primary.  So, even though Santorum didn't have his own delegate slate there, the relevant proportion of the delegates he's entitled to from the primary vote are still obliged to vote for him at the convention.

[Mr. Morden]

I have an important question about the Massachusetts primary:

Who did Dave Leip vote for?