The Super Tuesday Results Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: The Super Tuesday Results Thread  (Read 36313 times)
Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

« on: March 06, 2012, 05:24:40 PM »

This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.

Good news for Romney, the candidate of low turnout.

It might also help Santorum, if all the Romney voters decided the nomination was wrapped up and decided to stay home, like they did in CO/MN/MO. Those were also low turnout contests.
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Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2012, 05:44:14 PM »

White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.
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Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2012, 05:49:00 PM »

White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.
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Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2012, 05:56:58 PM »

White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.

Everything about the first wave of exit polls is to be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone's voted yet, so the exit poll is still going on, and anyway all the demographics will eventually be re-weighted to match the results.
I remember being burned by those first-wave exit polls in 2004!

Yep. I haven't taken early exit polls too seriously ever since President Kerry was elected in a landslide.
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