The Super Tuesday Results Thread

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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.

Everything about the first wave of exit polls is to be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone's voted yet, so the exit poll is still going on, and anyway all the demographics will eventually be re-weighted to match the results.
I remember being burned by those first-wave exit polls in 2004!

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"In Ohio, just 43 percent of voters said they strongly favored their candidate. Another 41 percent said they liked their candidate but with reservations, while 13 percent said they voted for him solely because they disliked the other candidates."

Good news for Mitt Romney?

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Romney's losing voters under 40-45 in VA, VT (to Paul); in OH (to Santorum).
Men in VA are going for Romney over Paul, 54-46. Maybe he should try to repeal the Nineteenth Amendment?

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I think Romney will hold on for the win in Ohio.

That's the most likely outcome, and certainly the truth wrt delegates. But I think expectations had rushed towards Romney this past week, so waiting hours to call Ohio will not look good for him.

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Santorum's lead in OH is expanding - it is a vote short of 12,000 now. Can be overcome, but it is getting big.

Oh Ohio, You're teasing us aren't you?

Most likely it is, because Cleveland and Cincinnati are still at 0% reporting and Columbus is only at 14% reporting.

You believe Cleveland is at 0% reporting even with about 25,000 votes in?

I'm just showing what CNN.com is showing.  I know its not 0, I was just going off CNN.com.

Franklin County (Columbus) is almost even, with 14% in. I wouldn't count on it helping Romney that much.

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It has to be a disappointing night for all of the candidates.
Gingrich won Georgia, but underperformed everywhere else.
Paul hit 40% in Virginia, by far his best performance yet, but still hasn't won a state.
Santorum won TN and OK, and came very close in Ohio, but won't win Ohio.
Romney won ID, VT, MA and VA, which gives him a bunch of delegates. Winning Ohio is nice, but it's not like he's going to get a lot of momentum out of that, especially not in KS, MS, AL and LA. He's got a long month ahead of him.

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It has to be a disappointing night for all of the candidates.
Gingrich won Georgia, but underperformed everywhere else.
Paul hit 40% in Virginia, by far his best performance yet, but still hasn't won a state.
Santorum won TN and OK, and came very close in Ohio, but won't win Ohio.
Romney won ID, VT, MA and VA, which gives him a bunch of delegates. Winning Ohio is nice, but it's not like he's going to get a lot of momentum out of that, especially not in KS, MS, AL and LA. He's got a long month ahead of him.

Gingrich got under 50% in GA, so he doesn't sweep the delegates.  Santorum, as of now, got less than 20% in GA so he gets no delegates.

The only good news for Santorum seems to be ND, so far.  

KS might become important.

Santorum has really been underperforming, delegates-wise. Not only the Ohio debacle, but coming just short in GA, and all sorts of places, really.
I know he has a lean campagin team, but he needs his own David Plouffe if he's going to pull this off.

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Santorum has really been underperforming, delegates-wise. Not only the Ohio debacle, but coming just short in GA, and all sorts of places, really.
I know he has a lean campagin team, but he needs his own David Plouffe if he's going to pull this off.

I think this showed a weakening of Santorum, in terms of election results.

In many ways, though I don't think Romney comes out of the night looking that good, either. I'm pretty sure he'll win the nomination, but he's not looking like a terribly strong frontrunner, and he's got a pretty ugly few weeks of primaries ahead of him. Tonight won't help him win MS or AL.

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Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.

Nicely written. The thing is, when you game this, with assumptions that are cautious for Mittens, he gets to within a 100 delegates of a majority at the end. And he has those extra 100 from the establishment "uncommitted" delegates. So the odds are low (something rather major will have to happen to dramatically change the game), that Mittens will not have an absolute majority, and even if he doesn't, it is hard to believe that everyone else will gang up on him and give the nomination to someone else. So it is really an issue of how long this goes on, and what it portends, plus or minus or wash, for the General election.

His rivals have to try for Hillary Clinton's strategy in 2008. She likewise knew that she couldn't win a majority of pledged delegates after February, but hoped to convince superdelegates to put her over the top by showing that Obama was unelectable. Her position was in most ways stronger, in that she was closer to Obama in delegate totals, and it was a one-on-one race, and she was the original establishment choice. Still didn't work for her.
Probably won't work for Santorum or Gingrich, either, unless they can make a convincing case that Romney is unelectable.

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85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)

Is this the moment for the state party to stop counting the ballots, and declare that Romney has won Alaska?