Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 18,833
Political Matrix E: -7.63, S: -9.49
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2012, 09:06:43 AM » |
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Here's how I see Georgia's General Assembly drawing a map with seventeen districts. I'm assuming they'll still try to gun for Barrow. The biggest difference is the need for an extra VRA district in the Atlanta metro; the map still manages to be 12-5 in favor of the GOP.
1st: 63% white; 54% McCain. Somewhat close but still safe for Kingston. Making it any safer would have either required some atrocious gerrymandering or letting Barrow keep his seat.
2nd: 50% black; 60% Obama. Safe district for Bishop. VRA district. An alternative would be to cut out everything south of Albany and take in Macon instead, but that would give Austin Scott a lot of risky territory.
3rd: 72% white; 66% McCain. Safe seat for Westmoreland.
4th: 54% black; 79% Obama Hank Johnson's seat, VRA.
5th: 54% black; 82% Obama John Lewis's seat, VRA.
6th: 60% white; 61% McCain Tom Price gets a safe seat now without having to worry about the Forsyth County GOP! (Apparently, cutting Forsyth in half was intentional in both the 2006 and 2012 maps).
7th: 60% white; 61% McCain Rob Woodall's district goes out into the exurb rather than Forsyth Co. to shore his district against impending demographic change because this works better with the smaller districts.
8th: 68% white, 66% McCain Austin Scott's district is safe. He'd probably like this district better than the one he actually has, because here he wouldn't have to worry about the Houston County GOP fielding a primary challenge against him.
9th: 83% white, 74% McCain State GOP's super special Hall County district for whichever buddy of Nathan Deal and Casey Cagle ends up running.
10th: 67% white, 56% McCain Paul Broun district: it's safe enough so he won't lose, but has the symbolism of keeping both of the liberal college towns even though his district shrinks considerably. Just the State GOP reminding Broun that they hate him.
11th: 70% white, 62% McCain Gingrey's district stays solid thanks to Cobb County suburbia, and helps Price out by grabbing up some potentially swingy areas in Sandy Springs and north Dekalb.
12th: 59% white, 54% McCain This map's version of the anti-Barrow district. Likely R.
13th: 51% black, 65% Obama David Scott keeps a safe district. VRA.
14th: 83% white, 70% McCain Tom Graves would certainly appreciate this district.
15th (orange): 82% white, 72% McCain First new district; heavily GOP exurbs. Forsyth and Cherokee Counties would both probably appreciate not being split in half, but their favorite sons would certainly have a bitter primary fight here.
16th (medium green): 61% white, 57% McCain. It's pretty easy to cancel out Macon by putting it in a district with both Houston County and some Atlanta exurbs. Not really much potential for a Marshall comeback here, though I wouldn't be surprised if he tried anyway.
17th (purplish blue): 50% black, 67% Obama. New VRA district both to ensure preclearance that also serves as a convenient Democratic vote sink. That segment of Fulton County in this district is almost identical to Kasim Reed's old State Senate district; he could run for Congress here if he got tired of Mayoring.
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