Challenge: Implement the Wyoming Rule

[Miles]

Here's LA and AR.

Under the WY plan, LA would squeeze out 8 seats. From what I've watched during the redistricting process here last year, I'm pretty sure the Republicans would have drawn another minority district, going for a solid 6-2 overall.



LA-01 (blue)
R+29
75/23 McCain
Scalise retains his base in northern Jefferson parish and the disgustingly red North Shore.
SAFE R

LA-02 (pink)
D+19
72/26 Obama
Richmond keeps most of Orleans parish and now reaches to LaPlace. 52.7% Black VAP.
SAFE D

LA-03 (aqua)
R+22
68/30 McCain
Obama severely underperformed state Democrats in this coastal district. All in all, similar to the current 3rd; Landry keeps his New Iberia base and should be in good shape.
SAFE R

LA-04 (salmon)
R+13
59/40 McCain
Flemming takes the weakest of the Republican districts and the only one under 60% McCain. Still, he barely won an open-seat contest in 2008 but is very rich. It would take another 2008-like wave to make this district a tossup.
LIKELY R

LA-05 (teal)
R+18
64/35 McCain
This is ancestrally Dem turf that has been trending the wrong way. Alexander is should be fine.
SAFE R

LA-06 (lime)
R+28
74/25 McCain
Like the actual redistricting plan, Cassidy gets a much friendlier district as he sheds Democrats in the delta and in Baton Rouge. This becomes one of the reddest seats in the country.
SAFE R

LA-07 (grey)
R+18
64/34 McCain
Boustany would actually be drawn out of his district, thanks to a 3-way split of Lafayette parish. Still, he should be entrenched enough to easily win here.
SAFE R

LA-08 (purple)
D+10
63/36 Obama
This is the second Democratic vote sink. It could probably get more Democratic by extending up to Shreveport, but I thought that would have been too ugly. 54.6% Black VAP.
SAFE D

Overall, Landrieu would have won CDs 2, 4, 8 will probably narrowly winning 3.

AR would get bumped up to 5 seats. This is about as close to a clean Democratic gerrymander as you can get in AR.


AR-01 (dark blue)
My hunch is that this gets a few points more Democratic as it sheds some northern counties that voted for Crawford in 2010. Between Causey and Ross, this district may have actually voted Democratic in 2010. I'd say tossup/slight D with the right conservaDem.

AR-02 (green)
AR-02 drops the red anchors of White and Saline counties. Bill Halter would probably actually be favored here against Tim Griffin.

AR-03 (red)
The current third is split quite evenly between the red and purple districts. However, this contains Fayetteville, home of Dustin McDaniel; he's probably the only Democrat who's popular enough to win here. Tossup/Slight D with McDaniel, Safe R otherwise.

AR-04 (salmon)
Like AR-01 or LA-05, this district went strongly for Bill Clinton, but has been trending strongly R ever since. Most counties here are Dem-leaning locally, but the presence of Miller, Saline and Union tilts it towards Team R. Safe D if Ross were running, Lean R in open-seat contest.

AR-05 (purple)
Probably the most Republican district in the state. It begins in the solidly red northwestern counties and then arcs around CDs 2 and 3 to include several GOP bastions; namely Lonoke, White and Cleburn counties.


So, between AR and LA, Republicans would have, in a normal year, probably 9 of the 13 seats. Democrats would be guaranteed LA-02, LA-08 and probably AR-02. However, they could win as many as 4 Arkansas seats with the right candidates.

[Miles]

I'm working on NC with 17 seats. 'Looks like the best Republicans could do without overreaching is 12-5.

[Miles]

Here's a 12-5 NC:



This could possibly be 11-6 if McIntyre wanted to be a team player; he'd run in the 7th and let Kissell have the safe 8th.

[Miles]

Very nice swingy Ohio.

Whats the black VAP in CD11?

[Miles]

Here's another stab at NC. This would be the Democratic map.



Pretty likely 11-6 D with Shuler and McIntyre.

[Miles]

Here's OK with 7 seats.

I'd say its 6-1 R. Democrats could at least be competitive in the 7th.



A TX Democratic gerrymander with 45 seats is also on the way.

[Miles]

I don't know much about Oklahoma politics but if you ignore the '08 presidential numbers I would say that almost any of those districts could be won by a legitimate Blue Dog.  Granted, the Blue Dogs are dying out pretty rapidly but most of them typically can win in districts where the typical D-R split is less than ten points in favor of the Republicans.

Yeah, these districts could all possibly be competitive with a conservative enough Democrat. I think CD1 and CD4 would be the two most likely to stick with the Republicans. Democrats would probably win CD7. The only district that is actually trending D is the 3rd.

[Miles]

Sorry to BUMP another old tread, but I forgot that I did a Wyoming Rule TX but never got around to posting it.

State:


North:


South:


DFW: (Martin Frost would be proud of my work here )


Houston:


Statistics:


If the Democrats recruited the right candidates, they could have a 26-19 delegation advantage with this map.

[Miles]

On a side note, I just noticed that my CD4 is almost identical to the CD4 that Sam Rayburn represented.