Here's my take on what NJ could've been, assuming a similar process- nonpartian mediator drawing the maps, with an eye toward both incumbent protection AND minimizing town splits/ugly gerrymandering. The result is on balance good for Dems, because both the 2000 and 2010 maps heavily favored Republicans over and above their actual strength in the state- basically they'd be favored in all of the new districts. It's 10-6, but two of the Dem and one of the R districts could fall.
I'd suggest rotating a few things in South Jersey. The new Burlington-Camden district is ugly. Here's what I'd do to fix it:
1. Retreat NJ-2 out of Cumberland County in favor of southern Ocean County. That would do a better job of ensuring LoBiondo's seat stays Republican if he retires. My unfinished attempt keeps Vineland and Millville in NJ-2, but dumps the rest of Cumberland.
2. The new South Jersey seat would consist of the remainder of Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester, and Southern Camden. In other words, the perfect district for Stephen Sweeney.
3. Andrews' seat includes northern Camden and northern Burlington (up to Burlington Twp.). It's a bit less ugly this way, and I think that places like Willingboro and Burlington belong with the city of Camden more than with Voorhees and Gloucester Twp.
4. Runyan's seat picks up a little more of Northern Burlington to compensate for the loss of southern Ocean.
I'm also messing around with North Jersey, but I won't be able to finish until after the weekend.
