Challenge: Implement the Wyoming Rule

[traininthedistance]

Here's my take on what NJ could've been, assuming a similar process- nonpartian mediator drawing the maps, with an eye toward both incumbent protection AND minimizing town splits/ugly gerrymandering.  The result is on balance good for Dems, because both the 2000 and 2010 maps heavily favored Republicans over and above their actual strength in the state- basically they'd be favored in all of the new districts.  It's 10-6, but two of the Dem and one of the R districts could fall.  



District 1: 62% Obama, 60% Dem.  Andrews' district is essentially split in two and unpacked a bit: South Jersey would need a new district for sure and the shape of 2 and 3 ensures it's Andrews who gets split.  Still safe for him.

District 2: 55% Obama, 54% Dem.  Despite those numbers this is a Republican district due to popular incumbent (LoBiondo).  The South Jersey district is always going to have this light-blue hue no matter what you do, and LoBiondo is enough of a popular moderate that he'll have no problem.  I'm still counting this as the losable R district, in case of retirement or purity primary.  A partisan Dem gerrymander would take this into Camden to try and flip it.

District 3: 46% Obama, 45% Dem.  Runyan's district with all the blue parts excised and given to 14.  I still kinda dislike the Barrens crossing, but I'd expect a court to keep it.

District 4: 44% Obama, 42% Dem.  Super-safe, and little change, for Smith.  A truly neutral court map wouldn't include Hamilton, but it's his home.

District 5: 44% Obama, 41% Dem.  Garrett's district barely changes, despite losing population it just retreats from Bergen a tiny bit.  Safe R.

District 6: 57% Obama, 56% Dem.  The ugliest district on the map by far, but any Pallone-protecting district will do that.  Splits Middletown with Smith and Old Bridge with Holt.  And still could possibly fall in a wave.  Obviously a Republican map would eliminate this district.

District 7: 48% Obama, 44% Dem.  Gets safer for Lance, withdrawing from Middlesex.  A fair map might take it further out of Union, an aggressive Dem gerry might even try to eliminate it entirely but that's probably unwise.

District 8: 58% Obama, 56% Dem.  Pascrell's district has to be cut in two in order to accommodate a second Hispanic district in North Jersey, this is the swingier suburban (and whiter) portion.  Clifton is split to accomodate NJ-16.  Mostly suburban Essex now, with suburban southern Passaic and two towns in Union.  Could fall in a wave.  A Republican gerrymander might try to crack this district to make four Republican North Jersey districts, but it would be hard.

District 9: 60% Obama, 61% Dem.  Clean all-Bergen district for Rothman.  Safe D.

District 10:  88% Obama, 84% Dem, 57% AA.  Splits Newark, Kearny, and Jersey City, and withdraws from Elizabeth entirely for the sake of neat lines.  Safe D of course.

District 11: 46% Obama, 40% Dem.  All Freylingheusen's district has to do is drop the silly tail in Somerset, and take Fairfield for population equality.  Safe R.

District 12: 62% Obama, 59% Dem.  Obviously more based on Holt's old district than his new one, because we need to make room for an actual Middlesex district here.  Cleaned up and compacted a bunch, Safe D.

District 13: 71% Obama, 71% Dem, 45% Hispanic.  Sires' district is now just Hudson, Elizabeth, and the Ironbound, it's still not 50% Hispanic by VAP but the new VRA district is, so it's all good.  Newark and JC are split.

Distirct 14: 64% Obama, 60% Dem.  The new South Jersey district is a Camden-Burlington mix centered on Cherry Hill, designed to relieve pressure on Runyan and also unpack South Jersey Dems a bit.  Shelley Adler would love it.

District 15: 65% Obama, 62% Dem, 46% White, 22% Asian.  It's about time Middlesex got its own district.  Safe D.

District 16: 72% Obama, 73% Dem, 50% Hispanic.  53% by total population; connects Paterson, North Newark, and North Bergen by way of the Meadowlands.  Splits Newark, Kearny, Jersey City, and Clifton- all of the split towns that aren't involved in the Pallonemander.  Safe D.