AL-Capital Survey Research Center: Final tracking poll shows Romney+1

[ajb]

This group isn't particularly good. In 2008, a few days ahead of the AL primaries this was their final poll:

http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20080202/NEWS/122394749

Obama by 7 and McCain by 12.

Obama won by 12 and Huckabee by 4.

Further, they got McCain almost exactly right (they polled him at 37.8; he got 37.1), but were waaaay off about Huckabee (they polled him at 26.2; he got 41.3). Make of this what you will as an omen for this year.

[cinyc]

Doubt this immensely...I think Romney would be lucky to break 25%...

...folks, let's remember this is friggin ALABAMA...He may do well in the rich suburban counties of Birmingham but he's toast everywhere else...

...same in Mississippi and the rich Jackson suburbs...

In 2008, Romney had one of his best showings among the rocket scientists of Madison County (Huntsville).  It's one of the least stereotypical counties in the state - rich and well-educated.  I'd expect him to have a chance there and in neighboring Limestone County, too. 

Romney also overperformed in Mobile and Baldwin Counties in 2008.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=120120306114

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen out with AL & MS polls later today.

[Tender Branson]

March 6-8 tracking:

28.5% Romney
25.5% Gingrich
21.1% Santorum
  4.5% Paul

http://www.myfoxal.com/story/17121260/two-new-polls-show-tight-ala-race

[Tender Branson]

34% Romney
33% Gingrich
28% Santorum
  5% Paul

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/AEA_CSRC_0313.htm