Is this really going to run into May?

[Keystone Phil]

I did some very rough estimates earlier. I found that even if Mitt won literally every single delegate at stake between now and through the April 24th primaries (which we know is officially impossible due to proportional allocation, for example), he'd only have 1,102 delegates not counting the RNC members.

So unless someone or several candidates drop out, is this contest really going to go into May? It's almost insane to think considering so many of us thought Romney would be going 3 for 3 in the early states.

[Wisconsin+17]

Guys?

[Keystone Phil]

Guys?

[J. J.]

There will be a spot when Romney starts winning big.  Whoever is left will have to either stand there and take it, e.g., become Huckabee, or suspend.  Becoming Huckabee only helps the soon to be defeated candidate get a cable show.

[Wisconsin+17]

It's really true, TX and CA are going to be relevant.

[Wisconsin+17]

Phil, you need to update your sig!

[Erc]

Most likely he will not actually clinch mathematically until California (or maybe even Utah, even though that's a foregone conclusion).  Might even go beyond Utah, if you agree with Gary Hart's definition of 'clinch.'

That said, we all know Romney is going to win this on the first ballot regardless.  The question is how long until Santorum and Gingrich (or, failing that, the media and the voters) are convinced of that?

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be very important in that effort in April.

[Likely Voter]

At some point in April it will become mathematically impossible for Santorum, Gingrich or Paul to win a majority of delegates, but Romney will still be short of his number to win. So May and June will essentially be a fight for Paul and Santorum (and Newt if he is still in) fighting solely to deny Romney a majority.

I said a while back that Romney will win in California, and i still think that is what will happen

[tmthforu94]

Meh, the race will end when Santorum and Gingrich decide to quit prolonging the process and damaging our GE chances. Hopefully that will be before May.

[Paul Kemp]

We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.

[Keystone Phil]

We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.

HE SAID IT AGAIN! HE SAID THE "C" WORD! UNBELIEVABLE!

[TomC]

Meh, the race will end when Santorum and Gingrich decide to quit prolonging the process and damaging our GE chances. Hopefully that will be before May.

LOL. If you don't think all states should get a say in the nomination, perhaps you'd just prefer only states that touch an ocean choose the nominee.

Also, Romney has been the one to spend tons more than anybody going negative on the airwaves- he is as much to blame as anybody else for the tone of this campaign.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, another gem from the Romney ranks: "You guys are dragging this out and making us look bad! Just ignore the almost 100% negative campaign we are running..."

[Grumpier Than Thou]

We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.

Oh my God

[Lief 🗽]

We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.

Oh my God

This is a reference to a classic moment of the 2008 Democratic primary, circa late April of that year, in case you were too young to experience it at the time.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Pure Awesomness.

Tied with Al Gore now, and just 1 back of Huckabee.

[Tidewater_Wave]

No I give it no more than 7 weeks.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This is absurd. Romney has virtually no chance of winning at this point, almost no remaining contests favor him in a three way with Santorum and Gingrich, let alone just him vs Santorum.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It could, personally I have a hard time seeing Santorum survive April 24th when Romney probably will go 4 of 5 but if he wins big in Pennsylvania he might be able to carry on.

[Keystone Phil]

The horrible thing about PA is Romney gets to spin it either way. He gets demolished? Ok. It is the state Rick represented for how long? If it's close, see Michigan. If it's a blow out and Romney has more of his delegates elected (remember, guys: our Presidential vote is a beauty contest. We directly elect delegates and they're technically unpledged) then it really is a big win for him. I don't know how many delegate candidates are sympathetic to Rick while I know that Romney has plenty since he's the establishment choice. This makes me fear that the latter scenario I listed is most likely.

PA will seriously come down to a GOTV effort and presence at the polls pushing certain slates of delegates. Insane. I'm sure there will also be mailers that specifically say "If you support X for President, you must vote for these people: ______"

[minionofmidas]

I'm sure there will also be mailers that specifically say "If you support X for President, you must vote for these people: ______"

And some of these will be misinformation.