Pennsylvania: An analysis.
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Keystone Phil
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« on: March 08, 2012, 06:35:45 PM »

I know we are well over a month away from the contest but the state is worth it considering how interesting we are and our GOP primary will be at least somewhat relevant. I also mainly want to get how I feel out there in one thread instead of little by little elsewhere.

This will be an open thread so feel free to add your own take or questions. I'll start off with the SE tonight since it has some very interesting pockets of support for each candidate especially in the urban area (which tend to favor Romney and Paul but will have a healthy amount of the vote - maybe even a plurality - go to Santorum and it isn't just because we are familiar with him). So stay tuned. Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2012, 07:11:21 PM »

It should be noted that the delegates are unpledged and not identified on the ballot as supporting a candidate.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2012, 07:21:09 PM »

Richie Richville is of course Safe Romney. No way he loses Montgomery-shire, Chester-heights, or Bucks-aplenty.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2012, 07:24:02 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2012, 07:40:49 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2012, 07:46:33 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.
Red.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2012, 07:47:19 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2012, 08:24:45 PM »

Romney's average favorability in PA is currently 25/45 according to TPM.......yeah the state is staying red in November.
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mondale84
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« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2012, 08:25:59 PM »

PPP is polling PA this weekend...we shall see about both the general and the primary
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2012, 08:29:30 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.



PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2012, 08:42:22 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.



PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state? Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2012, 08:49:23 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.



PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state? Tongue

No, but I do remember Obama's and trying to figure out why he needed to do it.
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Erc
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« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2012, 09:13:07 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2012, 01:17:40 AM by Erc »

For reference, a list of all the delegate candidates in Pennsylvania's "Loophole Primary."  Their presidential preference is listed, if known---it will not be listed on the ballot.  Those listed as [UNCOMMITTED] are those who have explictly said they are uncommitted when pressed to endorse a candidate.  Those listed as [DISTRICT WINNER] have said they will vote for whoever wins their district in the beauty contest.

My source is this document from the PA DoS.  The filing deadline was February 14, and the last day to withdraw was February 29, so despite being marked as "Unofficial," this should be roughly the final list.  Apparently, challenges are still being heard, so there may be some changes.

County names in {curly brackets} indicate they have been endorsed by that county's GOP.

CD 1 (Vote for 3)

Taxin, Marion [ROMNEY?] {Delaware/Philly} (2008 alternate)  
Vogler, Christopher [ROMNEY?] {Delaware/Philly}
Boggia, Tom [PAUL]
Untermeyer, Michael
Anton, Frederick (2008 delegate)
Kerns, Dale [PAUL]

CD 2 (Vote for 3)

Tucker, Calvin
Harris, Lewis {Philly/Montco}
Vogler, Walter
Lang, Adam {Philly/Montco}
Gureghian, Vahan {Philly/Montco}

CD 3 (Vote for 3)

Sergi, Michael [PAUL]
Lange, Carl
English, Philip [ROMNEY]
Lindsey, Travis [PAUL]
Mustello, Michele (2004 alternate)
Pepper, Jean (2000 alternate)
Metcalfe, Daryl (State Rep.)
Salorino, Joe [PAUL]
Adametz, Paul

CD 4 (Vote for 4)

Wingert, Lisa
Wingert, Kenneth (2004 delegate)
Gerow, Charlie [GINGRICH]
Hoffman, Eric
Gillispie, Marilyn (2008 delegate)
Roberts, Elizabeth
Zentmeyer, Deborah
Bair, Barbara
Talley, Dave [PAUL]
Parsley, Thomas
Keys, Deborah
Brown, Emily
Matthias, G
Hoang, David
Habacivch, William
Grippi, Antonio [PAUL]
Stewart, Dick (2008 delegate)
Doller, Suzanne (2008 alternate)

CD 5 (Vote for 3)

Styn, Mary
Martin, Tom
Haas, Joyce [SANTORUM]
Corman, III, Jacob [SANTORUM]
Brown, Thomas [PAUL]
Mitchell, Lee [PAUL]

CD 6 (Vote for 3)

Spadt, Jonathan
Schroder, Curt (State Rep.)
Costello, Ryan
Duffy, Philip [PAUL]
Bender, Edmund
Leban, Sean [PAUL]
Whitman, Byron [PAUL]
Kearney, Janice [UNCOMMITTED] [petition under challenge]
Gerlach, Jim [ROMNEY]

CD 7 (Vote for 4)

Cocco, Michael
Willert, Robert [ROMNEY?] {Delaware}
Grande, Joe [PAUL]
Owens, David
Lewis, Andy [ROMNEY?] {Delaware}
Sellers, Patrick [PAUL]
Booker, Patricia [ROMNEY?] {Delaware}
Puppio, Michael [ROMNEY?] {Delaware} (2008 Delegate)

CD 8 (Vote for 4)

Przybylski, Anastasia
Rosato, Ernest
Merritt, John
McCabe, Daniel
DiGirolamo, Joe {Bucks}
Serdula, Donna
Loughery, Robert {Bucks}
Puig, Ana
Dinan, Charles
Poprik, Patricia (2008 delegate) {Bucks}
Pao, David (2000 alternate)
O'Neill, Bernie (State Rep.) {Bucks}
Pepe, Rob [PAUL]

CD 9 (Vote for 3)

Burkholder, Mary
Shuster, Bill [ROMNEY]
Smith, Joan
Thomas, Bob (2008 delegate)
Epps, Meryle-Lynn
Ward, Judy
Cruder, Audra [PAUL]
Hess, Dick (State Rep.)
Geist, Richard (State Rep.)
Alloway, II, Richard [SANTORUM]
Kagarise, Wade
Campbell, Allan (1996 delegate)

CD 10 (Vote for 3)

Cipolla, Anthony [PAUL]
Harris, Mark [DISTRICT WINNER]
Sides, Carol
Price, James
Saylor, Pat (2008 delegate)
Brobson, Robert
Wilson, Aaron

CD 11 (Vote for 3)

McPherson, Randolph [GINGRICH]
Harrison, Michael [PAUL]
Etzweiler, Debra
Evans, Kathy
Urbanski, William
Ely, Donald [UNCOMMITTED]
Reichley, Evan [SANTORUM]
Haste, Jeff
Henry, Lowman
Gordner, John (State Senator)
Cusat, Jeffrey
Henry, Scott
Anderson, Michael [PAUL]
Piccola, Jeff (State Senator)
Zapach, Joseph [PAUL]

CD 12 (Vote for 4)

Laporta, Stephen
Pavlick, Jeannette
Wilson, Ann
Cooper, Jill
Majernik, David
Gleason, Jane [SANTORUM]
Fromme, Christopher [SANTORUM]
Turzai, Lidia (2008 delegate)
Borland, Larry [PAUL]
McMullen, Mike (2008 delegate)

CD 13 (Vote for 3)

Donnelly, William
McMonagle, Michael (2008 delegate)
Ellis, Thomas
Salvi, Michael [PAUL]
Yates, Brandon [PAUL]
Boyd, Edward
Barrilli, Robert
Gilber, Steven [PAUL]

CD 14 (Vote for 3)

Meloy, Mary
Wander, Josh
Roddey, James [ROMNEY]
Brajovic, Melina [PAUL]
Pfeifer, Carl
Yanovich, Jared [PAUL]
Haluszczak, Melissa

CD 15 (Vote for 3)

Apparently, there is a Gingrich slate here that is ready to vote for Rick instead.

Smith, Robert (2008 alternate)
Day, Gary (State Rep.) [petition under challenge]
Carroll, Thomas
Metrick, Michael
Simao, Antonio [petition under challenge]
Browne, Pat [SANTORUM]
Blickman, Ellen [PAUL]
McElwee, Charles
Eckhart, Glenn
Diamond, Russ [PAUL]
Piotrowski, Rich [PAUL]

CD 16 (Vote for 3)

Brubaker, Michael [DISTRICT WINNER] {Lancaster}
Walker, Robert [GINGRICH]
Sheaffer, Evgenia [PAUL]
Sheaffer, Ben [PAUL]
Womble, Ann [DISTRICT WINNER] {Lancaster}
Frick, Clifford [GINGRICH]
Miller, Rodney [UNCOMMITTED]
Gibson, Andrew [PAUL]
Dumeyer, David [DISTRICT WINNER] {Lancaster}

CD 17 (Vote for 3)

Antonello, Anthony [PAUL]
Manko, John [PAUL]
Daub, Daniel (2008 delegate)
Spano, Charlie [GINGRICH]
McAndrew Spano, Mary Rose [GINGRICH]
Kerr, Robert
Miller, Trent [PAUL]
Sterns, Gretchen
Gaetano, Rose Ann [SANTORUM]
Montero, Maria
Thomas, Scott
Dougherty, Mary Beth [GINGRICH]
Roces, Eltgad
Mezzacappa, Tricia

CD 18 (Vote for 4)

Steeber, Charles
Morreale, Steven [PAUL]
Uram, Thomas (2008 alternate)
Means, Sue
Means, Jim
Oliverio, Louis
Hatton, Meryl
Dougherty, Brian
Garsteck, James
Stopperich, Sonia
Silvis, Mary Jo (2008 delegate)
Wells, Jay
Disarro, Joseph
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2012, 10:02:35 PM »

PPP is polling PA this weekend...we shall see about both the general and the primary

That should be enough.

Pennsylvania looks like the sort of state that looks tempting to Republicans but usually ends up wasting candidates' time and donors' money. It looks as if a little tweak here and there can flip the state right...

In fact the state, with its compact populations, well fits a Democratic GOTV drive based upon Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, the northeastern cities, and Erie. It takes a strong Republican or a wave election to win Pennsylvania.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2012, 10:17:25 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.



PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state? Tongue

No, but I do remember Obama's and trying to figure out why he needed to do it.

and yet the state still swung Democratic. In fact, every region of the state except the Southwest (which was the area McCain targeted most heavily, and is typical of areas across the country where Obama did poorly) swung D:
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memphis
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2012, 10:32:57 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.



PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state? Tongue
McCain's final push in PA was 100% about the state not having any early voting. He had pretty much already lost the election by the final week in October. Granted, PA was a huge longshot, but it was all he had. He had already lost everywhere else.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2012, 11:02:49 PM »

For reference, a list of all the delegate candidates in Pennsylvania's "Loophole Primary."  Their presidential preference is listed, if known---it will not be listed on the ballot.  Those listed as [UNCOMMITTED] are those who have explictly said they are uncommitted when pressed to endorse a candidate.

My source is this document from the PA DoS.  The filing deadline was February 14, and the last day to withdraw was February 29, so despite being marked as "Unofficial," this should be the final list.


Ok, just as a policy on my end going forward: I know quite a few of the candidates for delegate (and alternate delegate). I won't be listing who they are going to support but will instead give generic comments like "CD ____ looks very good for ______ in the delegate race."

Also, my future comments will be analysis about certain groups/areas as I generally understand it. Saying (Specific area of Philadelphia) is Pro Santorum shouldn't be taken as fact or, more importantly, be understood to suggest that certain party leaders from a certain area are officially on board with a candidate. I will explicitly say that they're on board with someone if I know this to be 100% true and I don't have an issue discussing it.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2012, 11:35:19 PM »

What impact on the PA primary will the fact that Santorum abandoned PA years ago for VA have?
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J. J.
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2012, 11:45:03 PM »

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.
Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.



PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state? Tongue

No, but I do remember Obama's and trying to figure out why he needed to do it.

and yet the state still swung Democratic. In fact, every region of the state except the Southwest (which was the area McCain targeted most heavily, and is typical of areas across the country where Obama did poorly) swung D:


That was the point.  The polls showed Obama was leading.  I was saying Obama was going to take the state.  No matter what, the margins were just too great.  Obama kept on campaigning here.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2012, 11:48:03 PM »

What impact on the PA primary will the fact that Santorum abandoned PA years ago for VA have?

The same affect Mitt's abandoning of Michigan and Massachusetts had on his showing in each state.
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2012, 11:49:54 PM »

PA's PVI will remain D+0-2
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2012, 11:50:26 PM »

oh lord jj...

Are they going to publish who these people are supporting before the election?
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2012, 11:59:48 PM »


Obama, 2-3 weeks out, had the state locked up.  I think we ended up thinking it was a diversion.  Smiley

Quote
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A few have indicated how they will vote, but unless there is a massive ad campaign, we won't know.

99% chance I'll walk into the voting booth and have absolutely no idea who will be supporting whom.  The position is more considered an honor in PA than an actual representative position.  (I'm not joking).
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: March 09, 2012, 12:39:52 AM »

oh lord jj...

Are they going to publish who these people are supporting before the election?

Only the candidates themselves can do that. For example, the Paul people are well publicized. However, the delegate candidates remain officially remain unpledged. Their support for whomever is never officially listed on the ballot. It's horrible.

Again, this is why the campaigns must identify their people then promote them in mailers and Election day material at polling places.


99% chance I'll walk into the voting booth and have absolutely no idea who will be supporting whom.  The position is more considered an honor in PA than an actual representative position.  (I'm not joking).

I'll send some suggestions your way since we are in the same Congressional district now.  Wink

I agree that it's more of an honor here based on how things have worked here for so long. Times are different/more open now though so the establishment forces can't just get away with running their people and telling them to support whoever the nominee is at the convention.
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Erc
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« Reply #24 on: March 09, 2012, 01:01:12 AM »

In general, the campaigns have been pretty cagey about which delegates are theirs.

The Paul camp's official policy is not to publicize their list---you have to contact them explicitly, and once they verify you're a True Believer, they'll tell you.  Part of this is, I'm sure, usual Paulista conspiracy theorists at work, but there's a good reason for it as well.  Really, they're banking on picking up delegates due to clueless voters who vote at random / the top people on the ballot; if they publicize that so-and-so is a Paul delegate, that's likely to turn off the 90% of voters who aren't Paul supporters.

That said, since the Paul camp is really active online, it's not hard to dig around and find who their delegates are.  Protip: don't organize your campaign on Facebook.


As for the other camps...you don't want to publish a list if it's not very long.  Most of the delegate candidates don't seem to be running explicitly to get someone nominated at Tampa---there are a lot of local politicians, Tea Party activists, and the like.  They may not have made up their minds, or are running as a show of strength, etc.  Presumably the campaigns are leaning on them, and may have a good idea of their leanings (as Phil said), but to say that there is a pre-existing Santorum/Romney/Gingrich "slate" is very misleading.
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