Pennsylvania: An analysis.

[J. J.]

It should be noted that the delegates are unpledged and not identified on the ballot as supporting a candidate.

[J. J.]

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.

Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.

PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state?

No, but I do remember Obama's and trying to figure out why he needed to do it.

[J. J.]

I see PA trending rightward in this election. Obama has done worse in PA than his national average consistantly.

Their Tea Bagger Governor has a worse approval rating and polls point to PA staying blue.

I don't know anything about teabaggers but that sounds sexually offensive. It's always been a barely Democratic state in modern day elections and the trend would point towards that. Governors only play as big of a role in the campaign as the role they take on for it. Ed Rendell didn't help Kerry very much as the state was pretty much even and Tom Ridge didn't swing the state for Dole. I haven't seen Obama doing well in PA for an approval rating in a very long time.

PA has been GOP fool's gold for 20 years...

Remember McCain's final push in the state?

No, but I do remember Obama's and trying to figure out why he needed to do it.

and yet the state still swung Democratic. In fact, every region of the state except the Southwest (which was the area McCain targeted most heavily, and is typical of areas across the country where Obama did poorly) swung D:

That was the point.  The polls showed Obama was leading.  I was saying Obama was going to take the state.  No matter what, the margins were just too great.  Obama kept on campaigning here.

[J. J.]

oh lord jj...

Obama, 2-3 weeks out, had the state locked up.  I think we ended up thinking it was a diversion. 

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A few have indicated how they will vote, but unless there is a massive ad campaign, we won't know.

99% chance I'll walk into the voting booth and have absolutely no idea who will be supporting whom.  The position is more considered an honor in PA than an actual representative position.  (I'm not joking).

[J. J.]

So voters have to know about the delegates they vote for? What's wrong with just voting for a Romney slate, or a Santorum slate, for instance?

Nothing, but it won't be well advertized. 

[J. J.]

So what does a primary ballot in PA look like?

They haven't finalized the ballots for this year, but here's a sample ballot from 2008.

That's it.  And one of the people on there is a client. 

[J. J.]

I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

[J. J.]

I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA.  Even in 1994, there was a reasonable amount of erosion in the pro-life vote during the primaries.

[J. J.]

I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA.  Even in 1994, there was a reasonable amount of erosion in the pro-life vote during the primaries.

"Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA."

Wow! Going out on a ledge there!

Of course he won't do as well as he'll do in the T and out west but he won't do as poorly as people expect. Bucks and Montco, for example, aren't exclusively moderate Republican areas and, as I touched on earlier, Philly will be good for Santorum.

Some others have not done well in the past in SE PA.  Santorum could do better SW PA.

[J. J.]

J.J., what exactly are you saying? "Some others have not done well." What? No one is expecting Santorum to do exceptionally well in the SE but I don't even know to whom you're referring at this point. And of course Santorum will do better in the SW. Stop stating the obvious.

It might not be obvious to some people reading this thread.

There are a whole bunch of factors, including the probability of Santorum winning the state and coming in behind Romney with the delegate count (which has been noted).

You know things, and I know these things, but not everyone reading this knows these things.

[J. J.]

Establishment rallying for Romney in Harrisburg today - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gop-establishment-to-rally-for-romney/32623/


The only new names appearing are Congressmen Dent and Shuster. Hardly surprising as they are hardly favorites with the base.

Shuster has a following though in the center of the T.

[J. J.]

Establishment rallying for Romney in Harrisburg today - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gop-establishment-to-rally-for-romney/32623/


The only new names appearing are Congressmen Dent and Shuster. Hardly surprising as they are hardly favorites with the base.

Shuster has a following though in the center of the T.

Not enough that they'd vote for Romney.

It could weaken the ABR, and Shuster has a good ground organization.

[J. J.]

Proof that Santorum is receiving Corbett/some establishment support? Corbett's 2010 campaign manager is now running Rick's state operation.

Maybe not.  As you are aware, there are friendships and personal alliances that come into play.

I wouldn't be too surprised if the delegates sit on their hands until a winner emerges.

[J. J.]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

Yes, his district was part of Allegheny County.  Following up on Phil, the district didn't include Pittsburgh, and included some moderately Republican areas west of Pittsburgh.

[J. J.]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

Yes, his district was part of Allegheny County.  Following up on Phil, the district didn't include Pittsburgh, and included some moderately Republican areas west of Pittsburgh.

For the record, I wasn't saying he represented Pittsburgh. I was just saying that outside of the city, the county has wealthy areas that would lean towards Mitt.

That was the point I was trying to make.    Santorum represented some reasonable GOP areas, where there will be primary voters.

[J. J.]

Who wins Centre?

I'd bet Santorum.

[J. J.]

Who wins Centre?

Paul will do "well" because of Penn State, Romney will win the affluent voters around State College but there's no reason why Santorum shouldn't run up big numbers there. He'll get delegates out of the area, too, since popular and powerful State Senator Corman is on Rick's side and running for delegate (Santorum got his start in politics by interning for Corman's Dad).

It's a closed primary, and there are not huge amount of Republican students, so I don't think Paul will do that well.  Outside of the University there is a very large element of Evangelicals in the county.  The former Republican district attorney went to Bob Jones University.  I don't think that the Catholic population is large.  The affluent voters around State College are probably more Democratic proportionally.

That all tells me that it will be a good county for Santorum.

Corman is very well known, so I'd expect that to be a Santorum delegate elected from the district.  A Corman has been holding the Senate seat there since I was in college.

I'm agreeing with Phil, but more so.

[J. J.]

As an aside (if anyone is willing), can my new Representative be explained to me a little? It is the one and only Chaka Fattah. I remember hearing tidbits here and there but don't know him all that well. And I guess maybe analyze the results of District 2?

I would call him a post civil rights movement style traditional African American Democrat.