March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[Matthew]

My Kansas prediction
Santorum 51%
Romney 26%
Newt Gingrich 16%
Ron Paul 7%


Guam Prediction
Romney 68%
Santorum 21%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Ron Paul 3%
---
what occurred
Romney 83%


Virgin Islands
Romney 54%
Santorum 26%

Northern Mariana Islands
Romney 52%
Santorum 34%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Ron Paul 2%

[Matthew]

My Kansas prediction
Santorum 51%
Romney 26%
Newt Gingrich 16%
Ron Paul 7%


Guam Prediction
Romney 68%
Santorum 21%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Ron Paul 3%
---
what occurred
Romney 83%


Virgin Islands
Romney 54%
Santorum 26%

Northern Mariana Islands
Romney 52%
Santorum 34%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Ron Paul 2%

Looking like Santorum gets 51-52% for Kansas. Huckabee won it by 60 percent in 2008, so I'd say Santorum has underperformed. I don't expect Santorum to break 50 percent in Missouri as 1# it has twice as many people, 2# far bigger population centers.


My prediction for Missouri
48% Santorum
28% Romney(At least)

Depending if Gingrich gets to be on the ballot here. If he does then Santorum will be in the lower 40's.

Guam outperformed for Romney.
 Northern Mariana want strongly for Romney...

[Matthew]

51 percent in a state that you should of won by 60 percent+ isn't very good. I'm predicting the offical numbers out of misr for Santorum on the 17th will fall below 50 percent.

NP-9
Guam-9
Vi-7
Kansas 7
=32 delegates

Santorum
Kansas 33

[Matthew]

51 percent in a state that you should of won by 60 percent+ isn't very good. I'm predicting the offical numbers out of misr for Santorum on the 17th will fall below 50 percent.

NP-9
Guam-9
Vi-7
Kansas 7
=32 delegates

Santorum
Kansas 33

Should have won by 60?

Should of gotten 60 percent...Kansas has less then 3 million people or around half of Missouri 6,010,688  

This means that Kansas is much more rural in its nature with far less population centers that Romney does good in. The majority of Kansas city is in Missouri with st.louis. 51 percent is good an I expect Santorum to win Missouri on the 17th, but maybe not by 55 percent.  

Kansas city, kansas has around 200 thousand people compared to the Missouri half that is over 500 thousand.