Global Summit game

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If you're concerned that Asia-Pacific is overpopulated, Africa has too many nations, and the Middle East is too small to be a Region by itself, then I suggest the Middle East and North Africa (basically the Arab world) should comprise a Region, with sub-Saharan Africa as a separate Region. If you do this, you might want to include Israel with Europe so that they're not drowned out by Arabs.

As for how the other delegations would vote, I'd think they'd generally vote for the closest locations, with a few exceptions. Thus:

Argentina: Rio, unless they insist on a Spanish-speaking county, then Cusco.
Canada: Nassau. Quebec (what's its status?) would push for Port-au-Prince.
Chile: Cusco.
El Salvador: Guatemala City.
Honduras: Guatemala City.
Nicaragua: Guatemala City (it’s a bit closer to Managua than Panama City).
Paraguay: Rio, unless they insist on a Spanish-speaking country, then Cuzco.
Jamaica: Nassau (Jamaica is English-speaking, and Nassau isn’t too much farther than Port-au-Prince).
Uruguay: Rio, unless they insist on a Spanish-speaking country, then Cuzco.
Belize: Guatemala City (enough Belizeans speak Spanish that I doubt they’d insist on an English-speaking country).
Guyana: Caracas, unless they insist on an English-speaking country, then Nassau.
Suriname: Caracas
Greenland: Um, Nassau, I guess. I imagine they’d be quite upset at the lack of a more northerly nominee.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I think that San Juan is the most likely first choice for the Dominican Republic, but it's probably dead as the Central American countries are favoring Guatemala City and the remaining South American countries seem to be favoring other South American cities. I think they'd prefer Caracas over Guatemala City as a second choice(it's much closer). The big question here is whether they'd vote for their long shot first choice at this stage in the voting, or vote to help guarantee that their much more likely second choice makes the top three.

I still think that Argentina and Paraguay would prefer Cusco over Caracas, simply because of its relative proximity. If I did the math properly, Cusco will clinch a top three spot if it gets the support of both Argentina and Paraguay. The same can't be said for Rio, and no other nations are likely to support Rio at this point, so I see no reason for Argentina and Paraguay to vote for Rio if Cusco is a close second choice.

If Argentina and Paraguay vote for Cusco, then (if I did the math correctly), Nicaragua alone could cause Guatemala City to clinch the second top three spot. But Nicaragua could also cause Caracas to clinch in combination with the Dominican Republic, independent of Argentina and Paraguay's votes. So if Caracas is their first choice, they may be waiting for the Dominican Republic to make a decision.

I think Belize would vote for Nassau at this point, if, as you say, they'd be dead set against Guatemala City. If their top two choices are Nassau and San Juan, they'd probably vote for the one with more support since Belize is small and has few delegates.

I think Guyana is still a tossup between Caracas and Nassau.

I agree that the Dutch Americas would vote for Nassau, if for no better reason than to cast a meaningful vote against Caracas.

I still think Greenland would be dissatisfied with all of the choices, and may abstain (if allowed) or cast a protest vote in the first round.

EDIT: Actually, it seems that Nicaragua could cause Guatemala City to clinch regardless of any other nations' votes.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Number of votes needed to clinch a spot in Round Two (I think) (24 remaining):

Guatemala City: 4
Nassau: 4
Caracas: 7
Cusco: 9
San Juan: 12
Rio de Janeiro: 13
Panama City: 14
Port-au-Prince: 15

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Again, I think proximity and language would determine how nations vote in Round Two. I suggest the following:

USA: Nassau
Brazil: Cusco
Colombia: Cusco
Venezuela: (Caracas is practically equidistant from Guatemala City and Cusco. Nassau's closer, but in an English-speaking nation.)
Cuba: Guatemala City
Ecuador: Cusco
Haiti: Nassau
Costa Rica: Guatemala City
Dominican Republic: Guatemala City
Panama: Guatemala City
Puerto Rico and the USVI: Nassau (I think they'd support the US's choice.)
Uruguay: Cusco
Belize: Nassau
French North American and Caribbean: Nassau
Suriname: Cusco
French Guiana: Cusco

Another thing to consider, however, is that Nassau currently has a commanding lead, needing only seven votes for an outright majority. For Cusco or Guatemala City to do the same, they would need every single remaining vote (ain't gonna happen). Nassau is already guaranteed a Round Three position if there is no majority in Round Two, but I think it likely that Nassau's supporters would try to negotiate for a Round Two victory, so that Spanish-speaking nations don't fall in line behind whichever remains of Cusco or Guatemala City in Round Three. If my predictions as to who'd vote for Nassau are accurate, then they'd only need any two of the Dominican Republic, Suriname, French Guiana, or Venezuela (those nations that I'd think would be least committed to their choices).

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Let's analyze the situation for each remaining city.

Nassau: With six votes outstanding, Nassau needs four for an outright majority in Round Two. With most of Nassau's supporters being small Caribbean nations with few delegates, they don't want a Round Three. I think Nassau can count on Haiti and French North America due to proximity and lack of linguistic ties to any of the remaining candidates. I also see Cuba as a definite vote against Nassau (proxy vote against the US, linguistic ties to other candidates). So they're looking to gain the support of any two of the Dominican Republic, Suriname, and French Guiana. The Dominican Republic is feasible due to proximity, despite linguistic ties to the other candidates. French Guiana is feasible because it could be persuaded by French North America and Haiti. Suriname is feasible because it doesn't really fit in with any of the candidates. All in all, there's a good chance (but not a guarantee) that Nassau will win in Round Two.

Cusco: Cusco can't win in Round Two, but it only needs two votes, plus another vote against Nassau (so that Nassau can't win outright), to guarantee itself a Round Three spot. If Cusco can retain the support of the remaining South American nations (Suriname and French Guiana), then Cuba's vote against Nassau will force a Round Three matchup between Nassau and Cusco.

Guatemala City: With six votes remaining, Guatemala City needs either five, or four plus both of the remaining votes against Cusco, to gain entry to Round Three. That seems highly unlikely, as I think Haiti and French North America would prefer Nassau to either of the other options, and the South American countries would prefer Cusco to Guatemala City. I'm pretty sure Guatemala City is dead; the big question remaining is can Cusco force a Round Three.

All in all, Suriname and French Guiana are the kingmakers here. If they back Nassau, Nassau wins. If they back Cusco, Cusco enters Round Three as the heavy favorite.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I see Cuba voting for Cusco because Cusco is in a far better position than Guatemala City (and, of course, because it isn't Nassau). I also see Haiti and French North America voting for Nassau for the reasons I stated above. But the Dominican Republic, Suriname, and French Guiana are hard calls, made even harder by the fact that they're undoubtedly under heavy pressure from both the Nassau and Cusco camps. I think Suriname and French Guiana would default to Cusco (slightly closer, and perhaps they feel a slight connection to Peru being another South American country), but with the negotiations, who knows? The Dominican Republic is even harder; they probably have closer regional ties to Nassau, but they definitely have linguistic ties to the other candidates. I can see them going for whichever city makes the best case for itself.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Again, I think this is pretty much a coin flip. Because Cusco would be heavily favored in Round 3, whichever city Suriname picks wins. Even a throw-away vote for Guatemala City would make it seem like they favor Cusco. I still think Cusco would be Suriname's default choice, being closer and on the same continent, but I'm not sure that would hold through the negotiations. If Suriname wasn't too fond of Cuba's and the Dominican Republic's efforts to force a third round, they might vote for Nassau just to get the voting over with.