Taft
Rookie
Posts: 44
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« on: March 12, 2012, 06:55:03 PM » |
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As usual, I find myself splitting the baby on this. I don't think that Romney has to get to 1144 exactly in pledged delegates to win...but he has to get pretty close. If he is on 1100, then I'd hand it to him on available unpledged delegates.
However, if he has a plurality around 1000 or so (and particularly if there's a nasty lump late in the season such as an upset in CA or a blowout in TX), I think it's a much dodgier proposition. If it were a plurality around 900-950, then I think Romney would probably be in deep, deep trouble.
For the record, I'd put the 50/50 line somewhere around 1025 or so.
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