Your prediction for The primary's/caucus on March 13th

[Eraserhead]

Sheesh, how are working people supposed to go vote in these states where the polls close at 6 or 7 PM? I'm glad I live in New York.

[Lief 🗽]

Sheesh, how are working people supposed to go vote in these states where the polls close at 6 or 7 PM?

Yes, that's the point.

[GLPman]

I'll come back with percentages, but here are my guesses for each contest's victors:

Romney - Hawaii, American Samoa, Mississippi

Gingrich - Alabama

[ShadowRocket]

Alabama
Gingrich
Romney
Santorum
Paul

Mississippi
Gingrich
Romney
Santorum
Paul

Hawaii
Romney
Paul
Santorum
Gingrich

[J. J.]

I have a feeling Romney will underperform his polls in AL and MS. Just a hunch.

I would go as far as to say he could well finish third in both.

I would doubt that, but I expect Gingrich to win a plurality.

Chris B, you forgot American Samoa! 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alabama

Gingrich - 32%
Santorum - 30%
Romney - 29%
Paul - 9%

American Samoa

Romney - 82%
Santorum - 9%
Paul - 6%
Gingrich - 3%

Hawaii

Romney - 48%
Santorum - 22%
Paul - 19%
Gingrich - 11%

Mississippi

Gingrich - 35%
Romney - 30%
Santorum - 26%
Paul - 10%

[RogueBeaver]

Gingrich wins Alabama, Romney everything else.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Alabama
Gingrich 34%
Santorum 30%
Romney 29%
Paul 7%

Mississippi
Gingrich 36%
Romney 28%
Santorum 28%
Paul 6%

[Torie]

Assuming the candidates (excluding Paul who will get less than 15% and is out of the game) are relatively even, and each get at least 15% in each of the four CD's (which is very likely) delegate wise it is almost irrelevant how Mississippi turns out. Each candidate will get one delegate per CD, and the at large delegates split proportionally. So each candidate gets about a third of the delegates, plus or minus 1 or maybe 2 delegates.

In Alabama, the threshold is 20% rather than 15%, and in each of the 7 congressional districts, the winner gets 2 delegates, and the runner up gets 1 delegate. So in Alabama, about 15-20 delegates are in play maybe based on how the vote comes out where.

Hawaii is strictly proportional with no threshold, but since for the 2 CD's, you round up to the next whole number, rather than to the nearest whole number, Mittens should get 4 of the 6 CD delegates, and if he gets about 50% of the vote, about 9 of the 17 at large delegates maybe.

The 3 supers per state this time are all not bound. Presumably Mittens will get most of them, but for the moment I am leaving them in their own category.

Yes, I know everybody and the media are interested in the who wins horse race. However, I'm almost totally interested in the delegates at this point.

Here is a possible breakdown of the delegates when all is counted tomorrow.  Yes, Mittens won't get his 50% this time. That in part is because Hawaii's rules are not as rigged in favor of Romney as they might be, which is unusual for a Mittens' state; they usually are.  Somebody dropped the ball!  

Oh Somoa votes too I see. Well that needs to be added - later. 6 delegates are at stake and 3 supers. I assume Mittens will get the lion's share. The rules say the delegates are awarded in such a way that best reflects, "the preference of the caucus/convention participants," whatever that means. I think Mittens if he gets more than 50% of something or other, should claim that he gets all the delegates. Majority rules!  

All of this is per green papers, so if any of this is wrong, either green papers is wrong, or I can't read. Thank you.

OK, fixed now. Assuming Mittens gets most or all of the supers, and they have not already been allocated to him, Mittens per this projection will not fall very far below his 50%.  He needs about 47% from here on out, to get a majority of the delegates, so he should be about on pace still. Life is beautiful.

[Averroës Nix]

Alabama

34% Santorum
30% Romney
28% Gingrich
  7% Paul

Mississippi

35% Santorum
32% Gingrich
26% Romney
  6% Paul

[Blazinator]

Alabama

34% Santorum
30% Romney
28% Gingrich
  7% Paul

Mississippi

35% Santorum
32% Gingrich
26% Romney
  6% Paul

This, but maybe an even tighter spread.  Either way, Santo surprises to the upside (at least as compared to recent polls).

[Likely Voter]

Alabama
Newt Gingrich   32%   
Rick Santorum   31%   
Mitt Romney   29%   
Ron Paul            7%

Mississippi
Newt Gingrich     33%
Mitt Romney      31%
Rick Santorum    29%
Ron Paul            6%

Hawaii
Mitt Romney      48%
Rick Santorum    20%
Ron Paul            19%
Newt Gingrich     12%

Guam
Romney wins

[Matthew]

If I had a update:
1# Santorums small surge is over as Newt slaughtered him this afternoon. About the best speech Newt has brought to the floor in like 4 months.
2# He(santorum) will be in third place in both Mississippi and Alabama, but closer then my thinking a couple of days ago.
3# Maybe all within 3-4 points. Newt 33, Romney 31, Santorum 29 for Alabama like.

Not impossibe that we could have a close race for second place, but I think Romney takes it.  Mostly because of the split of the conservative vote.

[rbt48]

I can't imagine that Gingrich will win Alabama or Mississippi.  He seems to have little credibility with his personal life the primary factor.  it has to be a negative down in the heart of the bible belt.  But, I was wrong about his performance in Georgia.  Except in Georgia, he had the state party supporting him.

I'd expect Santorum to win both states, with Romney and Gingrich close behind and about tied for second.

[RodPresident]

Santorum could have MS and AL already in the bag if he hadn't talked about state and church. Southern Baptists have some way of fear about Catholics, like Santorum. Although this problem, Santorum will win
Alabama
Rick Santorum - 34%
Newt Gingrich 32%
Mitt Romney - 28%
Ron Paul - 6%
American Samoa
Romney - 80%
Santorum - 7%
Paul - 7%
Gingrich - 6%
Hawaii
Romney - 52%
Paul - 23%
Santorum - 17%
Gingrich - 8%
Mississippi
Santorum - 36%
Gingrich - 30%
Romney - 26%
Paul - 8%

[BigSkyBob]

Assuming the candidates (excluding Paul who will get less than 15% and is out of the game) are relatively even, and each get at least 15% in each of the four CD's (which is very likely) delegate wise it is almost irrelevant how Mississippi turns out. Each candidate will get one delegate per CD, and the at large delegates split proportionally. So each candidate gets about a third of the delegates, plus or minus 1 or maybe 2 delegates.

In Alabama, the threshold is 20% rather than 15%, and in each of the 7 congressional districts, the winner gets 2 delegates, and the runner up gets 1 delegate. So in Alabama, about 15-20 delegates are in play maybe based on how the vote comes out where.

Hawaii is strictly proportional with no threshold, but since for the 2 CD's, you round up to the next whole number, rather than to the nearest whole number, Mittens should get 4 of the 6 CD delegates, and if he gets about 50% of the vote, about 9 of the 17 at large delegates maybe.

The 3 supers per state this time are all not bound. Presumably Mittens will get most of them, but for the moment I am leaving them in their own category.

Yes, I know everybody and the media are interested in the who wins horse race. However, I'm almost totally interested in the delegates at this point.

Here is a possible breakdown of the delegates when all is counted tomorrow.  Yes, Mittens won't get his 50% this time. That in part is because Hawaii's rules are not as rigged in favor of Romney as they might be, which is unusual for a Mittens' state; they usually are.  Somebody dropped the ball!  

Oh Somoa votes too I see. Well that needs to be added - later. 6 delegates are at stake and 3 supers. I assume Mittens will get the lion's share. The rules say the delegates are awarded in such a way that best reflects, "the preference of the caucus/convention participants," whatever that means. I think Mittens if he gets more than 50% of something or other, should claim that he gets all the delegates. Majority rules!  

All of this is per green papers, so if any of this is wrong, either green papers is wrong, or I can't read. Thank you.

OK, fixed now. Assuming Mittens gets most or all of the supers, and they have not already been allocated to him, Mittens per this projection will not fall very far below his 50%.  He needs about 47% from here on out, to get a majority of the delegates, so he should be about on pace still. Life is beautiful.

I guess you missed the minor detail that Henry Babour of Mississippi, and Betty Fine Collins of Alabama have already declared for Romney and Santorum respectively. That leaves ten superdelegates at stake. Claiming that Romney will sweep all ten is a bit of hand waiving on your part.



[/quote]

[Tender Branson]

Final predictions:

Alabama

34% Gingrich
30% Romney
28% Santorum
  7% Paul
  1% Others

Mississippi

33% Gingrich
31% Romney
29% Santorum
  6% Paul
  1% Others

Hawaii

59% Romney
16% Gingrich
13% Paul
12% Santorum

American Samoa

All 9 delegates for Romney

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Mississippi:
Gingrich - 34%
Romney - 32%
Santorum - 29%
Paul - 5%

Alabama:
Gingrich - 32%
Romney - 31%
Santorum - 30%
Paul - 7%

Hawaii:
Romney - 48%
Santorum - 26%
Paul - 17%
Gingrich - 9%

[Lief 🗽]

I predict Romney will poll below 30% in both Mississippi and Alabama. Gingrich will win both. Brokered convention here we come!

[Sam Spade]

In theory, Newt should win both AL and MS, but I suspect Mitt has a better shot in MS due to his use of the Barbour organization. There are also ceilings for Mitt in both of states, likely higher in MS because of same.  The polls are also more likely to be a mile off in Alabama, and if they are, expect it to not be for Mitt.

Hawaii and American Samoa are not states, so who cares what happens there.

[Torie]

In theory, Newt should win both AL and MS, but I suspect Mitt has a better shot in MS due to his use of the Barbour organization. There are also ceilings for Mitt in both of states, likely higher in MS because of same.  The polls are also more likely to be a mile off in Alabama, and if they are, expect it to not be for Mitt.

Hawaii and American Samoa are not states, so who cares what happens there.

D-E-L-E-G-A-T-E-S.  Spreadsheets rule Sam. Yes, I know they are not popular in the legal profession. You should add an MBA to your degree portfolio. Just a thought.

[J. J.]

In theory, Newt should win both AL and MS, but I suspect Mitt has a better shot in MS due to his use of the Barbour organization. There are also ceilings for Mitt in both of states, likely higher in MS because of same.  The polls are also more likely to be a mile off in Alabama, and if they are, expect it to not be for Mitt.

Hawaii and American Samoa are not states, so who cares what happens there.

D-E-L-E-G-A-T-E-S.  Spreadsheets rule Sam. Yes, I know they are not popular in the legal profession. You should add an MBA to your degree portfolio. Just a thought.

If Hawaii isn't a state, are the birthers right? 

[Franzl]

No, as place of birth is likely irrelevant anyway.

[Sam Spade]

In theory, Newt should win both AL and MS, but I suspect Mitt has a better shot in MS due to his use of the Barbour organization. There are also ceilings for Mitt in both of states, likely higher in MS because of same.  The polls are also more likely to be a mile off in Alabama, and if they are, expect it to not be for Mitt.

Hawaii and American Samoa are not states, so who cares what happens there.

D-E-L-E-G-A-T-E-S.  Spreadsheets rule Sam. Yes, I know they are not popular in the legal profession. You should add an MBA to your degree portfolio. Just a thought.

If Hawaii isn't a state, are the birthers right? 

I thought that was a clue to Torie that I wasn't exactly serious with that last sentence, but I guess that failed.  Such a fine attention to detail...

[© tweed]

I predicted Mitt-AL and Newt-MS because I thought it looked coolest on the map.