Handicapping new now open WA-01 for November election

[Torie]

Given Inslee's resignation just after the March 6 cutoff for a special election (so the seat will be open until November), I am a bit surprised our contingent of WA state political junkies has not started to chatter about this seat.

An article about the now open district is available here.  The article states that is was about even in the Rossi runs against Murray and Gregoire, but Obama won it by 57.2% of the two party vote, which translates into a Dem PVI of 3.5.  Slade Gorton, who is on the commission, and drew the CD with his Dem colleagues to make it a "swing" district allegedly,  thinks it is even from a partisan standpoint, but to me a 3.5 number means that it is solidly lean Dem, absent some nuances that only the locals would know about. Koster (R) is running again; he got 49% against Larsen in WA-02, half of which is now in WA-01.  In WA, 2010 was a good GOP year, but like much of the Pacific coast, hardly a GOP wave. Koster is branded by the Dems as a Tea Party out of the mainstream type. Is he? Is Koster going to be the only Pub game in town, or will a more moderate Reichart type pop out of the woodwork?

So what do our Washingtonian Atlasians think about all of this, and the odds as to which party will win this CD in November? To me, Koster's odds don't look all that great, maybe 20% as a wild guess. Hopefully the gurus will be able to offer up something more substantive than a wild guess, and just who the players might be.

I might note that there will be a special election simultaneously for the 2 month period until the new Congress comes in around Jan 3, 2013, using the old CD lines, but what is relevant is not that special election (which a Dem will win handily), but the regular election which will be on the same ballot for a two year term. I guess that goes without saying.

CC:  bgwah
       alcon
       meeker

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not a Washingtonian, but I'd say it's tossup/Lean Dem unless Darcy Burner makes it in the top two, in which case Koster would have a decent shot at winning.

[RI]

The new WA-01 is split between Bellingham and King County's Eastside, with the latter holding more sway. Koster is from the northside of Snohomish County, which is where most of his vote last time came from; IIRC, he lost most elsewhere in WA-02. He didn't seem to be that popular in my district, but his signs are still up from 2010, and he has name recognition. A good chunk of north Snohomish County was left in WA-02 when they drew the new lines, though certainly not all of it, but as a percentage of population I'm sure Snohomish County makes up a smaller portion of the new WA-01 than it did in the old WA-02. I don't expect Koster to win, and while Burner might be able to make it a race, I rather doubt that she would lose in the end.

[bgwah]

^ Bellingham is still in the 1st CD. The conservative part of Whatcom County was added to the 2nd.

Anyway, we've talked about it quite a bit in our WA thread.

Koster is a two-time loser, but he came close both times and was running in a more Democratic district, albeit in a very strong GOP year last time.

Darcy Burner could definitely be the Democratic candidate. She of course lost a ~57% Obama district in the Democratic landslide years of 2006 and 2008! Words cannot truly describe what a terrible candidate she is. To make matters worse, she had originally carpetbagged into the more Democratic 1st district to make her third run. Amusingly enough her old home ended up in the 1st anyway due to redistricting.

Koster, on the other hand, isn't seen as "moderate" like Reichert. He's a Tea Party nut and everyone knows it. Burner is of course a MoveOn-style lefty (and now an Occupy-type) who isn't a very good fit for this district. One advantage Koster has is that he serves on the Snohomish County Council (third biggest county in WA). Burner still has no elected office experience, and only seems to have added "Failed lobbyist" to her resume since her last runs.

So I'd say Burner vs. Koster would be a toss-up, and the GOP's best chance of the picking up the seat. I think any of the other Democrats would definitely be favored to win.

I haven't really paid too much attention to the race recently. It will depend on which anti-Burner can raise the most money, I think. DelBene is rich and pumped millions into her 2010 campaign (FTR, she did better in 2010 than Burner in 2008 --- that's how bad of a candidate Burner is). Ruderman and Hobbs are pretty good fits for the district and I think would win fairly easily, but again, I don't know if they'll be able to raise enough money to win the primary.

Kirby Wilbur seems much more competent than the clowns who used to run the GOP (Esser and Tebelius). They're poised to win the Governorship and if the Democrats are really stupid enough to nominate Darcy Burner for a swing seat again, I could see the next few years being pretty good for the Washington GOP. Even gaining the State Senate seems very possible.

[Meeker]

I think there hasn't been an uptick in chatter because we've already known it would be vacant for a year now; Inslee's resignation doesn't really change much of anything.

I agree with the consensus offered in this thread - it's Lean Dem but Burner is definitely our weakest candidate. Our strongest candidate is DelBene based on fundraising or Hobbs based on biography and issues. Ruderman wouldn't be awful but is definitely weaker than the previous two. Goodman and Rauniyar are irrelevant.

One potentially amusing bit about the special: the old 1st, under which the special will be held, is considerably more Democratic than the new 1st. If Koster narrowly wins the full term it's entirely possible for him to lose the special term in which case we have a member of Congress for two months.

[Torie]

Thanks guys for the most informative information.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One potentially amusing bit about the special: the old 1st, under which the special will be held, is considerably more Democratic than the new 1st. If Koster narrowly wins the full term it's entirely possible for him to lose the special term in which case we have a member of Congress for two months.

Remember Shelley Sekula-Gibbs? I wonder if she holds the record for shortest Congressional tenure.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One potentially amusing bit about the special: the old 1st, under which the special will be held, is considerably more Democratic than the new 1st. If Koster narrowly wins the full term it's entirely possible for him to lose the special term in which case we have a member of Congress for two months.

Remember Shelley Sekula-Gibbs? I wonder if she holds the record for shortest Congressional tenure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effingham_Lawrence

He wins.