March 13 Results
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Author Topic: March 13 Results  (Read 32272 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #475 on: March 14, 2012, 12:12:21 AM »

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.
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jfern
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« Reply #476 on: March 14, 2012, 12:17:22 AM »

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.

Well, we all know that Romney will do well in Hawaii and American Samoa. I wonder he'll get all of the votes of the 50 people who bother to show up in Samoa? Of course he'll get all of the delegates there.
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Torie
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« Reply #477 on: March 14, 2012, 12:19:12 AM »

Does someone who knows MS/AL demographics want to explain these county maps?

In Mississippi, it appears that the voting results can be best described in terms of race.

In the areas of the state with the highest % of AA's, Romney won.
In the areas of the state with the lowest % of AA's, Santorum won.
In the areas of the state with medium % of AA's, Gingrich won.

Compare these maps:


https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

They match up pretty well.  

Interesting map. Very interesting. That Delta blue on the Mississippi plain, where cotton is king, still, even though it is gone most places now, may have more to do with the respect for authority thing perhaps. It's still kind of feudal down there. Folks depend economically on a few key players. Just a wild thought.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #478 on: March 14, 2012, 12:26:23 AM »

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But still not enough to come away with even second place in either state. 

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And the narrative coming out is that he is still weak in the south. He's been shut out and is unlikely to win any southern state.   

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No, but Santorum wasn't running at Mitt.

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But he did what he had to do, which was defeat Newt and force him out of the race, and out of relevancy. Now every Newt supporter knows that unless they want to throw delegates to Romney, they have to get behind Santorum.

Santorum wasn't fighting Mitt - he was trying to KO Newt, which he did.

Mitt's best option here, was to spend nothing, spend all his time elsewhere, and drop cash to Gingrich to help him take both states. If you are winning because of divided opposition - your best bet is to keep the opposition from coming together.
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J. J.
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« Reply #479 on: March 14, 2012, 12:28:39 AM »

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.

Well, we all know that Romney will do well in Hawaii and American Samoa. I wonder he'll get all of the votes of the 50 people who bother to show up in Samoa? Of course he'll get all of the delegates there.

AS probably, but HI is proportional, which could cut into his totals.  That will shape the story.

The press could end up focusing on the delegates.  A Romney plurality changes the story.
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Torie
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« Reply #480 on: March 14, 2012, 12:36:50 AM »
« Edited: March 14, 2012, 12:41:44 AM by Torie »

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.

Well, we all know that Romney will do well in Hawaii and American Samoa. I wonder he'll get all of the votes of the 50 people who bother to show up in Samoa? Of course he'll get all of the delegates there.

AS probably, but HI is proportional, which could cut into his totals.  That will shape the story.

The press could end up focusing on the delegates.  A Romney plurality changes the story.
\

No the story is about Newt getting out. But I have faith in Newt. I have faith in the narcissist. He thinks he will ride gas prices to being a big player at the convention. I doubt that he is psychotic enough to really believe he will win the nomination. The establishment know what a disaster it would be to nominate Newt. That is their absolute worst nightmare, worse than all the other ones.

In a word 75-100 delegates may be the difference between something rather clean, versus something that will be more of a mess, and possibly a bit more than that, if Romney erodes a bit more.

I assume nobody here thinks anyone but Romney can get a majority of the delegates on their own (including a Newt/Rick). If they do, I guess that is just something to endue.  
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #481 on: March 14, 2012, 12:41:34 AM »

I knew Romney couldn't win either of these states and correctly predicted that the exit polls were overestimating his support at my primary party tonight. I was wrong about the candidate who would win them though.

Congrats to Santorum. He is the true ABR candidate now. Period. End of story.

As an ironic Newt fan, it's hard for me to say this, but it's really time for him to go. If he can't win MS and AL, where the hell else is he going to win? Game over, dude.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #482 on: March 14, 2012, 12:42:59 AM »

He could win the moon.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #483 on: March 14, 2012, 12:51:07 AM »

Shockingly, Romney won American Samoa. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/03/13/world/AP-US-American-Samoa-Caucus.html?_r=1
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #484 on: March 14, 2012, 12:54:18 AM »

Wow. Approximately 8 actual voters per delegate. What a goddamn joke.
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Alcon
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« Reply #485 on: March 14, 2012, 01:00:51 AM »
« Edited: March 14, 2012, 01:04:09 AM by Alcon »

That's only 1,641 times as many voters per delegate in Alabama (12,766) as American Samoa (8) --  Seems proportionate to me.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #486 on: March 14, 2012, 01:05:52 AM »

Hawaii closing now? I stayed up this late for Hawaii, it better not take forever to report D:
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Alcon
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« Reply #487 on: March 14, 2012, 01:07:54 AM »

Hawaii GOP: if you were already in line at poll close you will be allowed to vote after 8pm close #808caucus

sigh
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #488 on: March 14, 2012, 01:10:07 AM »

Forget Hawaii. Santorum already won the narrative tonight.
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Alcon
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« Reply #489 on: March 14, 2012, 01:13:01 AM »

the question on everyone's mind: Will Mitt Romney get that 808 bump?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #490 on: March 14, 2012, 01:14:29 AM »

the question on everyone's mind: Will Mitt Romney get that 808 bump?

Or, can Ron Paul finally win somewhere?

(No.)
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Alcon
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« Reply #491 on: March 14, 2012, 01:20:46 AM »

the question on everyone's mind: Will Mitt Romney get that 808 bump?

Or, can Ron Paul finally win somewhere?

(No.)

No, I expect Mitt Romney's 808 bump will make Ron Paul put his hands up, make Ron Paul put his hands up, make Ron Paul put his hands up.

Y'know, in resignation.
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Alcon
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« Reply #492 on: March 14, 2012, 01:28:10 AM »

Danny de Gracia II ‏ @DannysKorner  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
Counting has begun. #hawaii #808caucus #GOP

And if you can't trust Danny de Gracia, II, who can you trust?
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izixs
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« Reply #493 on: March 14, 2012, 01:32:22 AM »

Hawaii results are popping in. Looking like Mittens vs Ronvolution right now.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #494 on: March 14, 2012, 01:34:44 AM »

Santorum winning Oahu at the moment with Paul winning the Big Island. lol
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Alcon
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« Reply #495 on: March 14, 2012, 01:35:12 AM »

Results starting to come in.  With 2% reporting:

Romney 31%
Paul 29%
Santorum 24%
Gingrich 16%
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Alcon
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« Reply #496 on: March 14, 2012, 01:36:53 AM »

Maui is ostensibly 38% in, and is:

Romney 41
Paul 26
Gingtorum 14x2

With 4% reporting, now Romney 32%, Santorum 28%, Paul 23%, Gingrich 17%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #497 on: March 14, 2012, 01:37:53 AM »

Oh. Well if Romney is going to win then at least get above 50% so my prediction is correct plz.
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Alcon
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« Reply #498 on: March 14, 2012, 01:38:01 AM »

Maui now 50% and slight tightening.  I'm sure Mormonia on Oahu will come in big for Romney, but this will be his worst island jurisdiction (lol.)
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #499 on: March 14, 2012, 01:38:26 AM »

Wow. Approximately 8 actual voters per delegate. What a goddamn joke.

AS or HI?
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