March 13 Results

[Alcon]

Downplaying expectations in MS & AL seems like the rational thing for Santorum's campaign to do no matter where they're at in the polls.

[Alcon]

LOL, 2 1/2 hours until polls close at 1am.

Time for some sleep ?

I have to say, I'm really impressed by your dedication to being up for these things at such terrible hours

[Alcon]

Romney up 7 vs Santorum in AL and 9 vs Gingrich in MS.

32/25/23
33/24/22

Terrible numbers.

Drudge is being misleading. Those are numbers from his crappy online poll, extracted to be only MS/AL voters.

Err, are you sure?  He's calling them "network exits."

[Alcon]

Romney up 7 vs Santorum in AL and 9 vs Gingrich in MS.

32/25/23
33/24/22

Terrible numbers.

Drudge is being misleading. Those are numbers from his crappy online poll, extracted to be only MS/AL voters.

Err, are you sure?  He's calling them "network exits."

Up at the top he has "network exits say" and then below is his "Drudge Polling Data". He is being deliberately misleading and trying to make people think they are one and the same. Note the gigantic Ron Paul vote.

Oh, Drudge, clever.

Thanks

[Alcon]

CNN's putting a bunch of information from the Alabama exit poll. I think it looks good for Santorum. Santorum is winning voters with a college degree, only 1 point behind romney in urban voters, and winning rural voters.

That can't possibly match a Romney win unless there's some serious juju going on here.  You're totally sure that's what they said is happening?

[Alcon]

CNN's putting a bunch of information from the Alabama exit poll. I think it looks good for Santorum. Santorum is winning voters with a college degree, only 1 point behind romney in urban voters, and winning rural voters.

That can't possibly match a Romney win unless there's some serious juju going on here.  You're totally sure that's what they said is happening?

I'm watching CNN at the moment, that's what their data says.

Looking very good, especially if you consider that data was taken at 5pm EST, with 3 hours of voting to go. Santorum's supporters have seemed to wait until the last minute in most exit polls.

Yep, sounds like there's some good money to make on Intrade right now.  Good catch.

[Alcon]

They just showed "men" in AL

34 Gingrich
30 Santorum
29 Romney

Gingrich also won men in Okalahoma. I guess it's bad for him that women are allowed to vote.

Those numbers are remarkably similar to Oklahoma's exit poll, although Gingrich is doing a few points better.

Romney may be headed for third here, with the normal caveat that this early stuff is often bullsh**t

[Alcon]

1. Santorum must be killing with women

2. Terrible numbers for Romney

3. If Mississippi is worse, and these numbers are right, this is going to be a pretty awful night for Romney

4. If these numbers were right, Drudge was making things up I guess

[Alcon]

Guys I think I have a row entirely to myself!!!

You can always join us with $13 AIRPLANE INTERNET

[Alcon]

Santorum is currently hilariously undervalued in Mississippi on Intrade, for the betting types

[Alcon]

I wonder why the networks are going out of their way to not show any candidate numbers from Mississippi.

[Alcon]

These exits seem quite good for the ABMs, can't tell which one will win though.

Agreed. Although I'm hoping Santorum will shatter my forum prediction (I don't need 4 points) and force Gingrich into an endorsement.

I really hope Santorum wins tonight, although any none Romney delegate is a good delegate at this point. If Rick wins tonight, I struggle to see a nice path ahead in Illinois for Mitt. What's Mitt's appeal outside Cooke County? He doesn't have any.

I'm not sure about that.  I think Romney has great appeal in all of the ring counties around Cook.

[Alcon]

Nate Silver would like to remind us that Mississippi has some of the worst elections infrastructure in the country, and may take a while to report.

Considering that they were doing typewriter-typed election results with frequent transcription errors as recently as 2008, I can back this up.

[Alcon]

also, if you want the toplines in the Republican primary in the Deep South, you can pretty much just copy-paste the white number

[Alcon]

They've already reweighted the MS exit polls, without a single vote counted.
Now
Romney 33
Santorum 31
Gingrich 30.

http://us.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ms

That was probably a land-speed record for exit poll updating.

[Alcon]

I think a lot of this is early voting.

[Alcon]

Intrade insanity update:

Romney insanely overvalued in MS; Santorum overvalued in AL.

[Alcon]

Montgomery early votes* came in big for Romney.

Lee County, Mississippi, by contrast, is looking nasty for him.

[Alcon]

Hinds County, Mississippi (Jackson) boding well for Romney and it's 17% in.

[Alcon]

Romney doing pretty weak on the Gulf Coast, by contrast.

[Alcon]

New Gulfport-Biloxi ballots basically identical to the first dump (which seems to be both early votes and some polls.)

[Alcon]

Romney CRASHED in the second dump of Montgomery County, Alabama, ballots.  Went from 46% to 34%.  Interestingly enough, it was Gingrich who gained, not Santorum -- 26% to 36%, while Santorum only edged up from 24% to 25%.

[Alcon]

Santorum leads in Birmingham in a close three-way race.

Second wave of Jackson County, Mississippi, ballots remarkably like the first, maybe slight Gingrich gain.

[Alcon]

Romney also crashes in second-wave Hattiesburg, Mississippi, ballots, from 37% to 27%.

Gingrich up from 28% to 36%.

Santorum up from 25% to 32%.

Starting to notice a bit of a pattern here about early votes.

[Alcon]

Santorum has a good dump and takes the lead in Gulfport-Biloxi, with Romney barely leading Gingrich.

Romney is, on average, not holding up very well in second-wave ballots.  It's nothing like South Carolina, but it's different than Ohio (where the effect barely materialized.)

Not looking fantastic for Romney, but keep your eye on Huntsville and DeSoto County, MS, as well as the other index counties.