March 13 Results

[Likely Voter]

Its interesting that Romney is doing a fundraiser tonight and will not be making any public statements, even if he wins.

So is this an indication that his people didn't think he had a chance (when the fundraiser was scheduled), or another sign that he is running out of money? Or both?

[Likely Voter]

LOL. Newt's chief of staff said that Wisconsin looks promising because Callista is from there!

This could be huge for Newt. Like Romney has multiple home states, Newt has multiple home states of his wives.

[Likely Voter]

LOL. Newt's chief of staff said that Wisconsin looks promising because Callista is from there!

This could be huge for Newt. Like Romney has multiple home states, Newt has multiple home states of his wives.

See it pays to have had multiple wives!

Maybe Mitt and Anne will reveal their secret sisterwives to get in on this

[Likely Voter]

how stupid do you have to be to make intrade bets based on 1% of votes counted (and ignoring exit poll)

[Likely Voter]

So the AL exits were right, but were the MS exit polls wrong or are there big pockets of Romney vote to still come in (like in OH)?

[Likely Voter]

So the AL exits were right, but were the MS exit polls wrong or are there big pockets of Romney vote to still come in (like in OH)?

MS exit poll is now modified to show a Santorum win.

sneaky!

[Likely Voter]

While a bad night for Romney, his third place showing in MS was still his best showing in the south so far with 30%.

And while Romney missed an opportunty to show himself as a strong front runner, he is still on his path to win on delegates. Results tonight still fit in the recent Nate Silver "baseline" scenario where Romney ends with majority of delegates.

[Likely Voter]

At the risk of sounding like a cartoonish super-villain...Losing AL and MS are all part of Mitt Romney's master plan.

..seriously. All he had to so is gather up some delegates and maintain his majority of delegates awarded position, which he has (even before he scoops up more from the pacific islands).

Moving forward, Romney's plan still probably expects him to lose almost half the upcoming contests. The only way for Santorum to stop Romney from getting his 1144 is for Rick to actually win a majority of contests, including some WTA states. I still don't see that happening.

The thing that Romney "lost" tonight is another chance to end this thing early. Just like with Super Tuesday, he continues to win just enough and nothing more.

[Likely Voter]

Yeah, but finishing third in both states is an embarrassment. Two, Newt got shutout.

You might call this a tactical defeat (in that Romney didn't win any states), but it's also a serious strategic defeat.

He spent money that he didn't need to spend in states that he lost (outspent Santorum + Gingrich combined).

I've been arguing this a long time now. If you can gain by spending nothing you are best off spending nothing. What he wants, for a strategic victory, are 2 Newt wins, if he can't win the states himself.

This is a big strategic and tactical victory for Santorum. He came from behind once again to defeat both of his rivals, and demonstrated that he's the only viable alternative to Mitt Romney.

actually, no. Mitt spent money and got delegates. In fact, he actually will probably end up with more delegates than he expected. And he got a little bit bigger percent of the vote than he had in previous southern contests.

The narative going in was that Romney is weak in the south but he is the expected nominee after a long fight to the end. He had a chance to change that narrative and missed it, but Santorum didn't over-perform to an extent that put Mitt's future plan in jeopardy. In fact, Rick actually came in a bit behind the recent Nate Silver 'baseline of Romney winning and way behind the scenario where he has to be in order to stop Romney.