March 13 Results

[Volrath50]

Drudge really is jumping the gun. There's three hours of voting left, and past exit polls have tended to show Romney supporters showing up earlier.

[Volrath50]

Romney up 7 vs Santorum in AL and 9 vs Gingrich in MS.

32/25/23
33/24/22

Terrible numbers.

Drudge is being misleading. Those are numbers from his crappy online poll, extracted to be only MS/AL voters.

[Volrath50]

Romney up 7 vs Santorum in AL and 9 vs Gingrich in MS.

32/25/23
33/24/22

Terrible numbers.

Drudge is being misleading. Those are numbers from his crappy online poll, extracted to be only MS/AL voters.

Err, are you sure?  He's calling them "network exits."

Up at the top he has "network exits say" and then below is his "Drudge Polling Data". He is being deliberately misleading and trying to make people think they are one and the same. Note the gigantic Ron Paul vote.

[Volrath50]

CNN's putting a bunch of information from the Alabama exit poll. I think it looks good for Santorum. Santorum is winning voters with a college degree, only 1 point behind romney in urban voters, and winning rural voters.

[Volrath50]

CNN's putting a bunch of information from the Alabama exit poll. I think it looks good for Santorum. Santorum is winning voters with a college degree, only 1 point behind romney in urban voters, and winning rural voters.

That can't possibly match a Romney win unless there's some serious juju going on here.  You're totally sure that's what they said is happening?

I'm watching CNN at the moment, that's what their data says.

Looking very good, especially if you consider that data was taken at 5pm EST, with 3 hours of voting to go. Santorum's supporters have seemed to wait until the last minute in most exit polls.

[Volrath50]

They just showed "men" in AL

34 Gingrich
30 Santorum
29 Romney

Gingrich also won men in Okalahoma. I guess it's bad for him that women are allowed to vote.

[Volrath50]

College graduates:

38 Santorum
32 Romney
26 Gingrich

That looks _very_ good for Santorum.

They just showed "men" in AL

Why the quotation marks? Because White Southerners have been emasculated since 1865?

Lol, I have no real idea why I quoted men, I guess because that's what I'd do for a more abstract category, like "very conservative voters".

[Volrath50]

4. If these numbers were right, Drudge was making things up I guess

And would this come as a surprise?

[Volrath50]

Was there early voting in AL and MS?

About 9%, polling shows it favored Gingrich.

[Volrath50]

I wonder why the networks are going out of their way to not show any candidate numbers from Mississippi.

I'm guessing it's the same reason Drudge has already declared Mitt Romney the winner.

It probably shows Romney as winning, but for various reasons, none of the networks want to run with it because their gut tells them that's wrong.

[Volrath50]

I wonder why the networks are going out of their way to not show any candidate numbers from Mississippi.

I'm guessing it's the same reason Drudge has already declared Mitt Romney the winner.

It probably shows Romney as winning, but for various reasons, none of the networks want to run with it because their gut tells them that's wrong.

Must've been on Drudge earlier, cause I don't see it now.

RC: AL officials are predicting 29% turnout.

He's toned it down a bit. He previously he had "Romney takes MS, AL tight" now he's hedged his bets by going with with "ROMNEY SET FOR MISSISSIPPI WIN; ALABAMA TIGHT".

[Volrath50]

Nate Silver would like to remind us that Mississippi has some of the worst elections infrastructure in the country, and may take a while to report.

Considering that they were doing typewriter-typed election results with frequent transcription errors as recently as 2008, I can back this up.

No matter what happens, they can't be worse than Nevada.

No one can be worse than Nevada.

[Volrath50]

AL Exit
34 Santorum
29 Romney
28 Gingrich

MS
35 Romney
30 Gingrich
29 Santorum

I'll be honest, I don't buy the MS Exit.

[Volrath50]

Intrade has Romney at 85% chance to win MS. That seems insanely overconfident.

[Volrath50]

how stupid do you have to be to make intrade bets based on 1% of votes counted (and ignoring exit poll)

I guess stupid enough to trade on Intrade. Considering this happens EVERY SINGLE TIME, I really wonder who the moron is that constantly says "EARLY EXIT POLLS HAVE MITT UP BY 2, SELL SELL SELL SELL"

[Volrath50]

Hey, remember 106 minutes ago when the exit poll had Romney up 5% in MS?

Good times.

Remember when Drudge declared Mitt Romney the winner in MS three hours before the polls closed?

Heh.

[Volrath50]

Santorum takes the RCP lead by Friday.

He was already surging, for whatever reason (Kansas maybe?), this should put him over the top.

And the rollercoaster continues.

[Volrath50]

I wonder if Santorum's huge wins will have any effect on the Hawaii Caucus. Those polls haven't even opened yet, I think.