Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll

[RI]

This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

I believe the rest of the Nevada county conventions are on Saturday, if it makes you feel any better...

[RI]

then how will predictions work?!

They won't. In fact, they'll probably be removed.

[RI]

Interesting.

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[RI]

Highly unofficial tallies I've gathered from Twitter and other websites. Note that the vote totals and delegate totals don't all come from the same places, plus there is a natural selection bias. Most of the totals also come from St. Louis County:

Votes:
670 Santorum
665 Paul
473 Uncommitted Unity Slates (Anti-Paul)
380 Romney
40 Gingrich
6 Uncommitted

Delegates:
92 Paul
65 Romney
63 Santorum
3 Gingrich

[RI]

Updated results:

Votes:
700 Paul
686 Santorum
473 Uncommitted Unity Slates (Anti-Paul)
410 Romney
46 Gingrich
6 Uncommitted

Delegates:
116 Paul
92 Santorum
71 Romney
4 Gingrich

[RI]

Confusion leads to no Santorum victory.  A chance for Santorum to gain some momentum is gone.

There was never going to be a winner declared. 99.9% of people will ignore this contest.

[RI]

Obviously caucuses have different turnouts than primaries, but wow. Santorum got 55% in the primary, while Paul only got 12%.

The vast, vast majority of rural counties have not been represented in the totals I've listed.

[RI]

Romney and Paul supporters just banded together to defeat Santorum in Greene County.

[RI]

Delegate update:
192 Paul
151 Santorum
141 Romney
11 Uncommitted
4 Gingrich

[RI]

Here's some delegate total results I've found posted on the Ron Paul Forums, don't know whether they've been mentioned/ counted here yet.

Franklin County: Paul 24, Romney 16
Jasper County: Santorum 25, Paul 11, Romney 7, Newt 1
Stone County: Santorum 15, Paul 1
Stoddard County: majority of delegates for Paul
Warren County: no Paul delegates
Clay County: no Paul delegates
Grundy County: all Paul delegates
Nodaway County: 6 Paul, 2 Romney
Boone County: Paul 48, Romney 5
Lawrence County: Paul 3, Santorum most of the rest (awarded proportionately from primary result)
Atchison County: 1 Paul, 1 Romney, 1 Santorum
St. Francois County: Paul 4, others ?

Also, for St. Charles County, before the police showed up (there was even a SWAT team and helicopter!) a Romney + Paul coalition was on the verge of electing a coalition slate of mostly Romney supporters.

I have more complete spreadsheets (relatively) that I'm working on.

[RI]

Delegates (30/142):
202 Paul
184 Santorum
149 Romney
26 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich

Votes (13/142):
1163 Paul
1155 Santorum
479 Uncommitted
440 Romney
66 Gingrich

[RI]

Welcome to the St. Charles County caucus - our "participatory" democracy in action.

Paul supporters sure are annoying.

[RI]

Delegates (35/142):
254 Santorum
215 Paul
172 Romney
33 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich

[RI]

The areas we have numbers for voted 55.15% Santorum, 26.23% Romney, 11.35% Paul, and 3.88% Uncom in the primary. Santorum is down almost 18% compared to then, Romney is down about 1%, Paul is up just over 20%, and Uncom is up less than 1%. If these patterns held across the state, the final numbers would be:

Santorum 37.27%
Paul 32.27%
Romney 24.28%
Uncom 4.86%
Gingrich 1.18%

[RI]

Delegates (38/142):
292 Santorum
223 Paul
176 Romney
33 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich

[RI]

Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

[RI]

Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

Where are you getting that from?

Scrapped together from Twitter, forums, newspaper articles. Anything I can find.

[RI]

Can somebody make a map of this?

It's really, really ugly, and I don't know how much it would tell us. But here is what I have anyway:



Romney is barely beating Santorum in St. Louis County from the results I have. However, they don't include Chesterfield which went big for Santorum, so he probably won it in the end.

[RI]

Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

The spreadsheet from the Ron Paul forum appears to have some different locales included than you; they have a total of Paul 307, Romney 278, Santorum 271, Gingrich 14

eridox.com/temp/MOGOPCaucusResults.xlsx

Yeah, I had a fair few more results than they did, and they counted the alternates in Taney County, giving Paul more than he should have. They also counted votes in Tesson Ferry rather than delegates, and I'm not sure the Jefferson County numbers are right; the MOGOP allocation doc gave the county 74 delegates, not 126. Romney did get a majority though there. They did have some I didn't though. Adding those in, I get:

Delegates (55/142):
414 Santorum
310 Romney
297 Paul
32 Uncommitted
9 Gingrich

New map:

[RI]

Here's my spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aofev0ik3wSudGdoOXBETjFzQ2s3THVsNU00amdoX1E#gid=0

[RI]

So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?

We won't officially "know" until the state convention. They aren't going to release results for the caucuses.

[RI]

So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?

We won't officially "know" until the state convention. They aren't going to release results for the caucuses.

And when is that?

June 2.

[RI]

According to Twitter reports Ron Paul won every delegate and alternate in the city of St Louis.

#mocaucus

That should mean he will eventually pick up the three national delegates from MO-01.

I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. He was pretty strong there in the primary too.

That would put my totals at:

Delegates (50/142):
414 Santorum (37.00%)
333 Paul (29.76%)
310 Romney (27.70%)
21 Uncommitted
9 Paul
(21 Unknown)

[RI]

Jackson County with 179 delegates is voting now. If the Paul people can hijack the county, they can take the lead in my count. Doesn't mean they'd actually be ahead though.

[RI]

Sounds like the Romney and Paul camps are colluding again in Jackson County to deny Santorum delegates.