Who would win contested convention?

[fezzyfestoon]

I can't imagine a circumstance where the Republican Party has the balls to deprive the plurality winner of the nomination, especially when I'm sure the media would turn it into 10X the news story necessary. People would be riled up by the media implanting the idea of some sort of injustice or false nominee that they would foam at the mouth over.

[fezzyfestoon]

Ah but 2008 was a one on one race, which mucks it up a lot more. Neither had an outright claim to the lead. In this race it's pretty clear Romney is the front-runner in all respects. In order for the right to lay claim to a split race, one would almost have to endorse the other sooner rather than later. ajb is right that in order to really be considered a legitimate nominee, Santorum will have to do extraordinarily well until the convention. Romney is also right when it comes to his mathematical approach putting him at a massive advantage.

[fezzyfestoon]

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Who was the last successful republican nominee to fail to win a state in the south?

That's very fun and interesting to us speculators, but the results of past nominating contests have absolutely no real bearing on what is happening right now.

[fezzyfestoon]

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Past results indicate that Romney is an extremely weak candidate for the republican nomination. Weaker than McCain, who was by no means a strong candidate.

I'm not getting your point. I don't choose the nominee, you don't need to campaign against Romney to me.