Who would win contested convention?

[Bacon King]

No successful republican nominee has failed to win MS.

MS has been the bellweather - choosing McCain in '08, and Ford in '76.

Ford won 2, and that's the worst performance of any Republican nominee, winning only MS and TN.

Even Ford won states like ND, KS and IA.
 

Every Republican nominee has also always won the South Carolina primary, and that's actually slightly relevant because South Carolina always votes at the beginning of the contest, unlike Mississippi which traditionally voted very late when everyone except the nominee had already dropped out.

Ultimately, trends like these only exist until they're broken and you shouldn't put any stock in them. Remember, "as goes Maine, so goes the nation" used to actually be a thing until 1932.

[Bacon King]

Mitt Romney: "Hey, Ron Paul, want to write the platform? I'll let you put everything you want in there except for that whacky foreign policy and drug stuff! And you can speak in front of the convention about it, too! And I'll tell you what. All you have to do is get your delegates to vote for me. And hey, if Christie still thinks he's too fat to campaign, I promise you that I'll even think about putting Rand on the ticket with me!"

*Ron Paul giggles like a school girl and jumps with joy*



(Seriously, that's probably all it would take for Romney to win the nomination if he's on the cusp of a majority heading into Tampa.)

[Bacon King]

you're assuming the Paultarded ninjas would bow that easily

It ultimately depends on how many of them actually make it through the various caucuses and state conventions to get to Tampa. If they're few in number, they'll be easy to corral and could probably be talked in to accepting Platform Committee spots as a compromise if they see they're outnumbered badly. You're right though that all bets are off if a ton of them do manage to make it.