Who would win contested convention?

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The problem with the 'dark horse' theory - is that the folks who prefer Palin, are perfectly happy with Santorum.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Popular vote essentially disenfranchises caucus states. If you're going to do it this way, take the percentages and split them up among the electoral college votes.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Who was the last successful republican nominee to fail to win a state in the south?

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No successful republican nominee has failed to win MS.

MS has been the bellweather - choosing McCain in '08, and Ford in '76.

Ford won 2, and that's the worst performance of any Republican nominee, winning only MS and TN.

Even Ford won states like ND, KS and IA.
 

[Wisconsin+17]

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And? The point is that MS has gone with every single eventual nominee, including Ford vs Reagan, throwing to Ford over Reagan and costing him the nomination.

Every republican nominee has had at least some significant southern support. Romney has none.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Past results indicate that Romney is an extremely weak candidate for the republican nomination. Weaker than McCain, who was by no means a strong candidate.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I suppose you think California would be a better choice?

Look, I know it's hard to believe but yes, MS is an important state in the Republican nomination. I'm sorry it's hard for you to understand but yes, people actually like the folks in the South and consider them to be good people. 

[Wisconsin+17]

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Coming from a Californian, this is ludicrious. At least we Texans are honest that Texas is more important than the lesser states, like California.
 

[Wisconsin+17]

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Republican nominees to the presidency have certain characteristics in common.

Some, like Bush Jr, go on to win all or almost all the states in the union.

The weakest successful nominee to the presidency for the republican party, is Gerald Ford.

What Ford + McCain share, is a weakness in the south. Strong republican nominees sweep the south. Weak ones lose states.

Halfway through the campaign - Romney being up 15-10 is about the same as where Ford was up on Reagan. This campaign is actually pretty similar to that one, of all the Republican nominations.

This isn't a good sign for Romney.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Reagan won South Carolina in '76. Ford did not.

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I think we can pretty much determine that Romney is a terrible candidate at this point in the race.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Romney will get swept in the south vs Obama.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Here's another fact, only one person has ever won the presidency losing > 10 states along the way in the primary, and he only did so by defeating another person who also lost > 10 states.

Face it, Romney's going to get blown out in the general.

[Wisconsin+17]

That's an interesting trivia question.

Who was the only Southern vice president republican nominee?

[Wisconsin+17]

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That Romney is a terrible candidate?