Who would win contested convention?

[ajb]

I can't imagine a circumstance where the Republican Party has the balls to deprive the plurality winner of the nomination, especially when I'm sure the media would turn it into 10X the news story necessary. People would be riled up by the media implanting the idea of some sort of injustice or false nominee that they would foam at the mouth over.

Romney currently has about 40% of the popular vote (Santorum is at about a quarter), and there are some states ahead that should be good for Romney even if he falters. Under those circumstances, I don't think Santorum getting 41% of the delegates would be enough for him to be handed the nomination in Tampa. He needs to dominate the race going ahead, not simply run competitive with Romney, and he needs to convince the party that Romney is not a viable general election candidate.

[ajb]

So some states should count more than others? Is that the logic?

Well in that case, the Romney again should come out on top because he keeps winning in the swing states like OH and FL. And his win in traditional dem states shows he has more appeal for a general election.

but, I think the whole notion that some state wins should be seen as more important that others is silly.

Anyone else having flashbacks to the 2008 Democratic primary about now? Those good old days when the Clinton campaign scoffed at Obama victories in Nebraska and such, saying he'd never win there in the general, and that her victories in OH and PA proved that she could win the swing states?