politicus
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« on: March 14, 2012, 07:48:59 PM » |
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« edited: March 17, 2012, 09:42:37 AM by politicus »
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Butterfly effect question for history buffs.
What happens to the history of North America if Britannia doesn't rule the waves in the Atlantic 1660 to around 1770?
Case: Sweden became a great power around 1630 after its successful intervention in the Thirty Years War. In 1658 the Swedes had conquered all of Denmark except the capital Copenhagen, which they unsuccessfully tried to capture. If they had been successful the Swedes could have more than doubled their population and increased their territory with the Realm of Denmark including Norway, the Faeroe Islands and Iceland (plus Holstein and colonies in West India, India, Greenland and the Gold Coast) and doubled their navy. Sweden at the time ran one of most efficient military machines in Europe and also had one of the most efficient fiscal administrations of the day allowing the country to pull far above its weight. Most of the Baltic and German coastline as well as Finland was Swedish.
Naval power The combined navy of the Nordic kingdoms would have been the second largest in Europe. Only Denmark and Sweden had navies in the Baltic Sea (Russia doesn't get one before 1700). So the United Kingdom of Scandinavia (UKS) could just leave a small fleet in the Baltic Sea and concentrate 80-90% of its naval forces in the Atlantic with Bergen or Trondheim in Norway as its main naval base. Ever since The Thirty Years War Sweden was a loyal French ally. France would have the third largest fleet in Europe. The combined Nordic/French navies would make a formidable opponent for Royal Navy. The British would also be forced to divide their navy because the Nordic navy could access the Atlantic north of Scotland.
European navies in 1650 displacement in tonnes
Sweden + Denmark 50.000 (28.000 + 22.000) Britain 49.000 Spain 30.000 Netherlands 29.000 Portugal ca. 25.000 France 21.000
# French navy would become bigger than the other continental navies around 1665. IRL Swedens great power status collapsed 1718-21 at the end of the Great Nordic War, but I think a united Nordic kingdom would have the strength to keep its great power status for another 40-50 years. It would be in almost perpetual war with the Russians over control of the Baltics and eventually the Russians would get the upper hand due to their much larger population. But the Russians were way behind Western Europe and the modernizing project of Peter the Great becomes far more difficult with a strong enemy like a united Scandinavia. So I think 1760-70 is a realistic time for the defeat of UKS that would lead to its loss of great power status and the ascent of Russia.
My question:
How does the loss of British naval supremacy in this period affect the history of North America?
(assuming that the French/Nordic alliance is stable).
There is of course other butterfly effects as well regarding the creation of the British Empire in general and the consequences of a later Russian involvement in Western/Central European history.
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