China General Discussion

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Yep, this is very, very big news. I won't be surprised if he gets detained and charged with corruption. There's a tradition that every time a new batch of leadership ascends, they must throw a regional party boss under the bus. My gut's been telling me this has been coming for a while, but I didn't expect this immediately after the closing of the NPC. It's too early to say what specifically will happen, but expect a purge of anyone associated with him in the next few months.

Also, can we have a "China General Discussion" thread here? It's partially out of narcissism since I'll be hogging it, but we can't not have one.

EDIT: The official media reports that Bo is "no longer serving", and not "fired" as Chongqing Party Chief. He needs some face after all.

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Who was thrown under the bus in 2002-2003?

Chen Xitong was Mayor of Beijing and Politburo member until he was ousted in 1995 and accused of massive corruption. He was a rival of Jiang Zemin who was consolidating power from Deng, who was slowly fading after 1992. Of course, Jiang's people made bigger takings than Chen, but that doesn't matter.

Chen Liangyu (no relation) was Mayor and Party Chief of Shanghai until 2006, when he was accused of misusing pension money on real estate developments. Hu Jintao had only finished receiving all official titles from Jiang in 2005, and Chen was a protege of Jiang. Best to get him jailed.

Some people are now speculating Bo will retain his Politburo membership and get appointed to a sinecure, to allow him some face, and perhaps he's too powerful to officially throw under the bus. But since he was fired so dramatically I won't be surprised if he meets the same fate of both Chens.

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Projecting China's collapse is fashionable among political journalists.
Obviously it's a good story. But how realistic is it?

The Coming China Collapse: Economic, Political Or Both?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/308830-the-coming-china-collapse-economic-political-or-both

I bet none of the western pundits who constantly predict a "Chinese collapse" have ever spoke with any ordinary people who are supposedly deeply disgusted at everything.

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Simply put, Bo had annoyed too many Politburo members with his populist, semi-neo-Maoist propaganda campaigns. He also built a Machiavellian reputation and, apparently, engages in corruption on a whole other dimension. A Politburo member's salary can't pay for his son's studies at Harrow and Oxford, and then for his red Ferrari.

Most alarmingly, Bo had acted like a warlord by ordering a 70-vehicle police convoy to drive from Chongqing to Chengdu to surround the US Consulate when Wang was inside. Reportedly he was furious when Wang surrendered to centrally-controlled Ministry of State Security personnel rather than his people. Anyone who's learnt about 20th century Chinese history understands how scary that episode was. It also reveals how China's most important problem, and what scares the Party leadership the most, is warlord-like behavior of regional bosses and not Tibetans, Falun Gong, or democracy dissidents.

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I know not much about Chinese politics but the impression I get from Hu Jintao is that he does not have the control his predecessors did... can some one speak to the power of the Chinese leader nowadays

Since Mao's death, there's the understandable aversion to one-man rule. During the 1980s, the three highest positions (General Secretary of the Party Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Committee) were held by three separate people, with Deng exerting paramount influence. This arrangement came undone during the Tiananmen Square crisis when infighting erupted. Since then the three highest positions have been held by one person.

Out of the 20-something strong Politburo, the nine member Standing Committee generally makes top decisions by consensus. The General Secretary/President/Chair of the CMC is first among equals rather than an Emperor. Regional Party bosses and retired Party leaders also exert behind the scenes influence.

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An update on this fast-moving situation: the PLA Garrison Command in Chongqing, as well as the Chongqing City Party Committee Office, the local Party Orgburo, the local Party Propaganda Department, the local Party United Front Bureau, and the local Party Political and Legal Bureau have all pledged strong support for the Central Committee's decision, and stands beside them politically, ideologically, and materially. In particular, the PLA Garrison Command has promised the cleanliness, stability, and unity with the Central Committee and the CMC.

In plain language, this means the Central Committee is/was nervous about Bo loyalists in the Chongqing local Party and government apparatus. The fact that military units stationed in the city are pledging loyalty to the Central Committee is unsettling. Bo is being thrown under the bus which is driving back and forth over his corpse.

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The article then goes on and on (and on) about the DoD's lack of cybersecurity for some reason.  Weird article all around.  Weird that news of a possible coup in the capital of one of the most important countries in the world took so long to get "out".  Weird that nobody is making a bigger deal out of this.  Weird that the article itself doesn't seem to make a big deal out of it.

I call BS on these "rumours". The photos supposedly showing tanks in Beijing were quickly found to be shopped. It appears that while some increased security exists, it seems to be due to a visit by a North Korean delegation and isn't any more than during regular "sensitive" periods. Besides, wouldn't foreign media immediately broadcast live pictures if there really was a coup going on?

IIRC, the last time the Party has abruptly conducted mandatory study sessions was immediately after the Tiananmen Square thingy.

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It's strange this thread isn't more active when China is at this very moment in the most significant upheaval since at least the Tiananmen Square thingy. The details are something beyond Tom Clancy's imagination.

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It gets even more bizarre. Now Britain has demanded an investigation into the death of its citizen Neil Heywood, who officially died of alcohol overdose and was cremated without an autopsy. Reports say he was either a businessman too well connected to Bo Xilai, or the personal butler of Bo Xilai's son, Bo Guagua. By the way, Guagua hasn't been seen at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government since his dad was fired.

The Chongqing government and party apparatus is being purged of Bo's people and the effect seems to be immediate. The local TV station has cut a show of communist patriotic songs and has resumed commercial advertising for the first time in a year. Signs have appeared in city parks warning residents not to "disturb the enjoyment of others", putting an immediate end to Bo's trademark campaign to have residents sing communist songs (and in any case only older people have participated). People who held signs in support of Bo in public have been rounded up by plainclothes police (yes, China is now cracking down on real, genuine communists). The city's mafia and pimps have become active again.

Elsewhere there's infighting in the Politburo and my guess is that last week's "coup attempt" was actually a BS rumor spread by Zhou Yongkang (the Politburo person for security) to rattle Hu and Wen. It was earlier rumored he was detained, but then he met with Indonesia's Foreign Minister which puts an end to these rumors. The Great Firewall sporadically unblocked information about Tiananmen Square and overseas dissidents. An online tribute to Zhao Ziyang isn't being shut down.

Wang Yang, the Party Chief of Guangdong and a liberal counterpart to Bo, has spoken about the importance of open communication with the public, and announced a crackdown on the mafia in the province. Meanwhile, Hu Jintao met as CPC General Secretary with Wo Boxiong, the Honorary Chairman of the KMT. They came to the conclusion that China is "one nation" with Taiwan and the mainland as "two regions". What this will mean is unclear.

It's overused to call things historic, but I do think this is an historic time for China.

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Weird that the "hardliners" are bing purged by, at least in theory, the more....liberal group.  Usually it works the other way around.  Those with the pull know who butters their bread, and it ain't old Reds (or new Reds trying to bring Red back in fashion).

Which is why even the "liberal" people know they must occasionally be nasty. Hu and Wen haven't forgotten Mao's saying that power flows from the gun.

Uh, all I see so far is a lot of rumors and innuendo. Bo Xilai hasn't even been kicked out of the Politburo, has he? Given the inaccurate rumors that have flown around weibo, and how little in China has changed for the past twenty years, one can forgive us outside observers for a little skepticism here. Arguably, it shows how hungry people are for change that they'll grasp on anything to try to make it blow up into something bigger than it is.

I think there's too much on the ground change in Chongqing for this to be nothing. And, especially since the Central Committee is nervously trying to ensure everyone with guns is on their side, it's proof that some people with the power to command troops are upset at whatever's going on.

Whether Bo is still in the Politburo seems academic by now. It's not unprecedented that someone can be purged while retaining a token space in the Politburo, but that window has probably passed for him. A lot of muckraking is going on, but a lot of concrete things are happening, which can't be ignored.

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Another big update: Bo Xilai has been fired from the Politburo and Central Committee and is being investigated by the Party Central Investigations Committee. The press release still referred to him as Comrade, proof they acknowledge he still has a base of support. In the same update, they named Bo's wife and the family servant as suspects in the death of Neil Heywood.

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Why would the countries with good claims to the Spratlys concede anything to the PRC?  The Paracels, sure, share the wealth, but not the Spratlys.

Why would the PRC concede anything from the islands it controls in the Spratlys? And why would the PRC contemplate relinquishing control over the Paracels, which it gained by defeating South Vietnam in 1974 (when they were collapsing)? Remember, when Chiang Kai Shek heard the PLAN was about to attack the South Vietnamese (his ideological comrades in arms) on the Paracels, he specifically ordered his forces not to impede them, so this isn't an issue specific to the Communist (in name only) regime.

Besides, China isn't the only nation with sketchy claims in the South China Sea. Vietnam also claims virtually the entire basin as its own, on the same "traditional fishing grounds" reasoning. A practical solution will require all sides to give up claims they have held for a long time.

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Like it or not, the PRC de facto controls all the Paracels and a good section of the Spratlys. In both cases this occurred after Chinese naval victories against Vietnam (South Vietnam in 1974, all Vietnam in 1988), which the KMT in Taiwan explicitly didn't impede when their SOP was to sink any PLAN vessels.

And besides, where does Vietnam's claim to virtually the same area come from? Where does the Philippines claim over the entire Spratlys come from? According to the map, the only somewhat understandable claim is from Malaysia.  Politicians from all countries are using this as a chance to wave the flag and distract from domestic problems. Therefore, for China (which includes the RoC in Taiwan, which makes the exact same claim) to unilaterally relinquish its claim is as logically absurd as the US unilaterally relinquishing nuclear weapons during the Cold War.

As for the Cyprus analogy, AFAIK Italy doesn't claim anything around Cyprus.

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China should simply reach an agreement with the ASEAN countries with claims in the Spratlys to jointly divide and explore the area. Otherwise, it doesn't matter what you claim, they can't go ahead to exploit any potential oil reserves in the region due to the territorial disputes anyway.

On the contrary, I think the US should lead an agreement among the disputing nations to the detriment of China. The US must leverage its position in SE Asia to form a bloc of nations opposed to China. Getting an agreement would be a good way to do that. But I'd like to see an APTO, so what do I know.

Also, what came of that letter by party members calling for the dismissal of Bo's security chief? To me it sounded surprisingly brash, or is this more common than I think?

That will not work. All these countries have disputes among each other over the basin, and trying to forge an anti-China coalition will merely blow up in Uncle Sam's face down the road when two US allies are threatening each other.

In addition, many of these countries have friendly relations with China, including Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Indonesia.

And here's the final kicker: Taiwan has been engaging in standoffs against Vietnam and plans to beef up its military presence in the South China Sea using Stinger missiles it purchased from the US. Taiwanese officials have also visited the area to call for stronger defense. Two days ago, the director of the Taiwanese intelligence agency stated that the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam privately urged Taiwan not to ally with Beijing on the territorial dispute. In other words, there's the real possibility that if push comes to shove, Taiwan will be using its US-equipped military to attack other US allies in order to do the bidding of Beijing. China would be essentially outsourcing its wars to a party it officially regards as a renegade in true Sun Tzu fashion. It's impossible to overstate how catastrophic that would be to US interests.

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Just a question about China: to anyone who knows enough about the country to know its general demographics, if it were to become a democracy today and hold elections, how would, say, Conservative, Liberal, Socialist/Social Democratic, Green, and Neo-Communist parties fare given people's general attitudes?

Way, way, way too many hypotheticals.

But anyone who thinks that a democratic China will automatically be pro-western is naive and delusional. Even compared to now.

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The Party Propaganda Office is in this respect still stuck in the old ways. They could easily halt any rumours by releasing a picture showing Xi Jinping sitting on a chair wearing a bedroom gown regardless what's going on in the backrooms. Back problems while swimming is a completely plausible explanation for being away.

Today Xinhua reported that Xi Jinping sent condolences over the death of a veteran general. Which means he's still around doing...something.

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One can't cover up riot control in the big cities like one does in the countryside.

They've certainly done it before.  And it's not out of the realm of possibility that these demonstrations are state sponsored.

You're underestimating the passion of "fenqing". They believe the government is too soft on foreign policy, and many have openly demanded that Japan be wiped out of existence. They believe that Japan is merely being used as a surrogate by its puppet master as part of its grand strategy towards the Pacific, which is considered shameful. But even then there's a general sense that the government isn't standing up for China (e.g. "why are we lending trillions of dollars to a country that hates us?"). So the government doesn't want these riots to occur, but is simply more afraid of harshly cracking down on these rioters than peasants rioting over land grabs.

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All this was started by Hong Kong-based pro-democracy activists who landed on the islands in question on the anniversary of Japan's surrender, and then were seized by the Japanese coast guard. The next day there were spontaneous anti-Japanese riots in dozens of Chinese cities. From the perspective of these pro-democracy activists it was a very shrewd and clever way to provoke the Chinese people to spontaneously riot for *any* reason.

So, in fact, the CPC never wanted to provoke anti-Japanese sentiment, but is now forced to by a few political dissidents. That is unless they're the best manipulators in all history and even have dissidents on their payroll.

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Two big pieces of news:

Bo Xilai has been stripped of Party membership and a criminal investigation into abuses of power, bribery, and being a playboy (which is illegal for civil servants). The charges go back to his time not only as Chongqing Party Secretary but far before that, as Minister of Commerce and Mayor of Dalian. It's an open admission that the Party itself has been condoning corruption among its top ranks.

Also the Politburo has decided to start the 18th Party Congress on November 8. It's expected that Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang will become General Secretary and Prime Minister, and that the military and Politburo will experience high turnover. Everything else is still up for speculation, though presumably Bo supporters won't be going anywhere.

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This thread could be a lot more interesting if we had some idea of whether Xi Jinping is a Mikhael Gorbachev-in waiting. 

Mikhael Gorbachev? Gimme a break. Chiang Ching-kuo or Lee Kwan Yew? Maybe.

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The seven members of the new Politburo Standing Committee have just emerged and Xi Jinping is  speaking. He speaks in plain Chinese avoiding the staid and wooden language of Hu Jintao. He pays necessary lip service to Party talking points but is like night and day compared to the past two General Secretaries. Hopefully he'll also avoid the cringe-inducing antics of Jiang Zemin. The other members are:

Li Keqiang
Zhang Dejiang
Yu Zhengsheng
Liu Yunshan
Wang Qishan
Zhang Gaoli

Seems like a list which ruffles as few feathers as possible and which satisfies both major factions.

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I don't think even Wang Yang desires real political change. At most he would support a Singapore-like regime.

It's especially noteworthy that Zhang Dejiang (who studied economics at Kim Il Sung University in North Korea ) is third (!!) on the Standing Committee.

Looks like Jiang had his way as much as he could.

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What is also surprising is that, with only 7 members and all with the same age and similar careers, we don't have any clue on who is supposed to be part of the "next generation" of leaders.

Not certain, but there may be a new age limit of 67 years for Politburo Standing Committee members. This means in 2017, all but Xi and Li would be required to step aside. Hopefully by then Jiang or his ghost won't be able to stack the new Politburo with his cronies again.

There's speculation that current Inner Mongolia Party Chief and Hu Jintao protege (no relation) Hu Chunhua would be in a good position to be the sixth PRC leader. We've just witnessed the second non-violent transfer of power in China in the past century. Since Deng Xiaoping decided Hu Jintao would succeed Jiang Zemin, this is also the first transfer of power without Deng Xiaoping's involvement.

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A violent transfer of power might be preferable, if it gets rid if the CCP

Not if it brings back the 1910s, 20s, and 30s. Or the 60s.

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It's kind of ironic that the last Chinese leader who didn't care if tens of millions of people had to die to satisfy a higher ideal was Mao.