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Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
Absolutely they are done like dinner   -14 (46.7%)
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb   -15 (50%)
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme   -0 (0%)
NDP will definitely win   -1 (3.3%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 128193 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1675 on: September 14, 2018, 06:02:15 pm »

And its People's Party
Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

He's aiming to go national
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« Reply #1676 on: September 14, 2018, 06:03:13 pm »

And its People's Party
Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.
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« Reply #1677 on: September 14, 2018, 06:14:49 pm »

And its People's Party
Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.
oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?
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« Reply #1678 on: September 14, 2018, 09:12:42 pm »

And its People's Party
Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.
oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

According to Craig Oliver (about the only liberal national media commentator around) Maxime Bernier's party could do very well in and around Quebec City: right wing populist but pro free trade.

Based on that, there may be parts of Alberta where the Weekend at Bernier's Party could do well as well, but I don't know if Bernier could establish himself well enough in a year's time to win any seats in Alberta.

The analogy made by some with Preston Manning and the Reform Party regarding the 1988 election really does not hold water though.  The 1988 election ended up as a referendum on free trade and many Western conservatives held their noses to vote Progressive Conservative.  The leading western conservative publication at the time (Western Report or Alberta Report published by the noxious Byfield family) urged conservatives to hold their nose and vote Progressive Conservative.

Of course, byelections are easy to vote against a government with a solid majority, but I think it's fairly instructive that only a few months after the 1988 election, Deborah Gray won a landslide victory for the Reform Party in Alberta.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2018, 10:03:18 pm by 136or142 »Logged


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« Reply #1679 on: September 14, 2018, 10:24:49 pm »

Actually Rural Alberta is one area where Conservative support is so strong a split would be harmless as one of the two parties would win.  On the other hand could be bad news in Calgary and especially Edmonton if it gets any traction.  Whether it does or not is tough to say.  I tend to think it won't make much difference as most Conservatives hate Trudeau with a passion so the base will coalesce behind whichever party is most likely to defeat them.  Where things could get interesting is can he pull away some swing voters who dislike both the Liberals and Tories.  While much of that group is not libertarian per se, some might who find Liberals too left wing and Tories too right wing vote for him as a protest vote.

Also wondering if some Conservatives wish Trudeau kept his election promise on electoral reform as with PR a split would actually be in the Tories' benefit since whenever you merge two parties you never get the sum of both.  True it is unlikely they would get over 50% although if say Michael Chong split off and formed his own more moderate one it might be plausible of the three parties albeit still a stretch.
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« Reply #1680 on: September 14, 2018, 10:59:20 pm »

Actually Rural Alberta is one area where Conservative support is so strong a split would be harmless as one of the two parties would win.  On the other hand could be bad news in Calgary and especially Edmonton if it gets any traction.  Whether it does or not is tough to say.  I tend to think it won't make much difference as most Conservatives hate Trudeau with a passion so the base will coalesce behind whichever party is most likely to defeat them.  Where things could get interesting is can he pull away some swing voters who dislike both the Liberals and Tories.  While much of that group is not libertarian per se, some might who find Liberals too left wing and Tories too right wing vote for him as a protest vote.

Also wondering if some Conservatives wish Trudeau kept his election promise on electoral reform as with PR a split would actually be in the Tories' benefit since whenever you merge two parties you never get the sum of both.  True it is unlikely they would get over 50% although if say Michael Chong split off and formed his own more moderate one it might be plausible of the three parties albeit still a stretch.

Yes. In referring to the late 80s with that though, I don't think strategic voting was as well understood, and so had Alberta Report/Western Report written something like 'these are the ridings where it's safe to vote Reform, but in these ridings you should stick to voting P.C', it probably would have been confusing.

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« Reply #1681 on: September 14, 2018, 11:03:39 pm »

And its People's Party
Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.
oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

According to Craig Oliver (about the only liberal national media commentator around) Maxime Bernier's party could do very well in and around Quebec City: right wing populist but pro free trade.



Ralliement créditiste 2.0 ?
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« Reply #1682 on: September 14, 2018, 11:23:09 pm »

And its People's Party
Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.
oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

According to Craig Oliver (about the only liberal national media commentator around) Maxime Bernier's party could do very well in and around Quebec City: right wing populist but pro free trade.



Ralliement créditiste 2.0 ?

Weren't they extreme social conservatives though?  Bernier for all his 'too much diversity' is mainly a libertarian.  Bernier's non racist concerns over immigration might also play well in places where there are many non racists who are unhappy with the negative effects of large amounts of immigration: traffic jams, reduced public services...  So, he might have some popularity in the Lower Mainland and populist areas of Toronto like Scarborough, maybe some parts of the GTA as well.

In the case of the Lower Mainland there are a fair number of people who go to Point Roberts, Washington to pay lower prices for dairy products.  And this maybe compounded by the dislike of the monopoly taxi cartel here in British Columbia as well.

Again, I doubt it would be enough support to actually win a seat even with 4 or 5 way vote splits in the Lower Mainland anyway, don't know enough about Scarborough or the GTA.
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« Reply #1683 on: September 15, 2018, 08:45:45 am »

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?
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« Reply #1684 on: September 15, 2018, 06:05:44 pm »

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?
The Tory base, or the party membership which included dairy farmers who were convinced by Scheer to sign up?
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« Reply #1685 on: September 16, 2018, 07:26:53 am »

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?

Relative to Quebec voters, sure. Relative to Anglo CPC voters, hell no.

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?
The Tory base, or the party membership which included dairy farmers who were convinced by Scheer to sign up?



If we ignore the rotten boroughs and just look at Quebec ridings were the Tories either won or did pretty well last time (and therefore have some sort of base and organization on the ground), Bernier ran up the score in Quebec City, but lost in  rural places.

IMO he hasn't really figured out whether his party is going to be a free marketeer or a right wing populist. If the former, I don't see him having much of an impact outside of Quebec City, Beauce and maybe the better off bits of Calgary. If the latter, he has a much bigger market for his ideas, especially in Quebec.

None of the major parties seem to be a great fit for the current tone of Quebec politics. The Liberals and NDP are too federalist and too pro-multicultural. The Bloc is too nationalist,  and the Tories are too... Tory. If Bernier plays his cards right, and that's a big if, he could  make some noise there.
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« Reply #1686 on: September 16, 2018, 07:11:27 pm »

I fear that the People's Party is gonna split the vote and cause a Trudeau reelection...
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« Reply #1687 on: September 17, 2018, 12:01:43 pm »

Go Mad Max!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFdolEltCgs
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« Reply #1688 on: September 17, 2018, 12:20:57 pm »

I fear that the People's Party is gonna split the vote and cause a Trudeau reelection...

I don't think it will have much impact as unlike the 90s, the Conservative base hates Trudeau with a passion, whereas they didn't loathe Chretien to the same degree they loathe Trudeau so they will coalesce behind whichever is stronger, almost certainly the Conservatives.  The Conservatives are more likely to lose due to inability to appeal to centrist swing voters not split on the right.  The bigger danger of Maxime Bernier's new party, is the Tories will move rightward to prevent a split and this will make them unacceptable to middle of the road swing voters thus hurting their chances of winning.  Never mind for Trudeau, Trump and Ford and likely Kenney by 2019 is a perfect trio Trudeau can whip the Tories with and claim voting Tory means you get what those three offer. 
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« Reply #1689 on: September 17, 2018, 12:24:52 pm »

Sorry, why exactly is this a phenomenon? Is Andrew Scheer too, what, moderate? Surely not. Or just not an inspiring leader?
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« Reply #1690 on: September 17, 2018, 12:44:48 pm »

Grit backbencher crosses the floor to the Tories.
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« Reply #1691 on: September 17, 2018, 01:02:44 pm »

She is from York Region, which is trending Conservative relative to the rest of the GTA.  She only won narrowly in the big red wave.
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« Reply #1692 on: September 17, 2018, 01:43:31 pm »

She is from York Region, which is trending Conservative relative to the rest of the GTA.  She only won narrowly in the big red wave.

Also her riding went massively PC last June going 56% so this was probably one of the lowest hanging fruits for the Conservatives.  Not saying it is totally out of principle, but I think the Conservatives probably had a slight edge here to begin with.
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« Reply #1693 on: September 17, 2018, 01:57:03 pm »

Sorry, why exactly is this a phenomenon? Is Andrew Scheer too, what, moderate? Surely not. Or just not an inspiring leader?

I'd say it's two things:

1) Harper kept a lot of people under wraps in order to gain power. Scheer has failed to keep those people happy.

2) Bernier has an ego the size of the Canadian Shield.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1694 on: September 17, 2018, 02:02:42 pm »

She is from York Region, which is trending Conservative relative to the rest of the GTA.  She only won narrowly in the big red wave.

Also her riding went massively PC last June going 56% so this was probably one of the lowest hanging fruits for the Conservatives.  Not saying it is totally out of principle, but I think the Conservatives probably had a slight edge here to begin with.

She has a military background so it's not outlandish that she might find the Tories appealing, but since she is a backbencher with no track record of rightist statements, I'm going to assume its self interest.

Guilty until proven innocent Tongue
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« Reply #1695 on: September 17, 2018, 02:21:38 pm »

She is from York Region, which is trending Conservative relative to the rest of the GTA.  She only won narrowly in the big red wave.

Also her riding went massively PC last June going 56% so this was probably one of the lowest hanging fruits for the Conservatives.  Not saying it is totally out of principle, but I think the Conservatives probably had a slight edge here to begin with.

She has a military background so it's not outlandish that she might find the Tories appealing, but since she is a backbencher with no track record of rightist statements, I'm going to assume its self interest.

Guilty until proven innocent Tongue

Yup, that sounds about right. Military folk tend to lean Conservative in Canada most of the time, so the groundwork is laid. If she thinks she's going to be listened to more as a Tory backbencher than a Liberal one, fair enough. If she thinks she's lining herself up for a Cabinet position in the 2019-2023 Scheer government ... she may be being a touch premature.


2) Bernier has an ego the size of the Canadian Shield.



*Epic* analogy. Well done.
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« Reply #1696 on: September 17, 2018, 10:12:12 pm »

Sorry, why exactly is this a phenomenon? Is Andrew Scheer too, what, moderate? Surely not. Or just not an inspiring leader?

He's an airhead who can only speak about policy using meaningless right wing cliches.
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« Reply #1697 on: September 18, 2018, 07:26:53 am »



2) Bernier has an ego the size of the Canadian Shield.



*Epic* analogy. Well done.

Haha, thanks.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1698 on: September 18, 2018, 07:28:13 am »

The Libertarian Party is considering merging with Bernier's new outfit.
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« Reply #1699 on: Today at 09:26:07 am »

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