The Great Nordic Thread

[Helsinkian]

Finland poll:

[DavidB.]

Fully expecting PS to be getting 15%> of the vote in the end.

[Ethelberth]

They mostly fight with SDP for working-class men votes. There are limits for that, if SDP succees to be credible pro-labour party.

[Helsinkian]

Fully expecting PS to be getting 15%> of the vote in the end.

I hope so but am sceptical. Many supporters were left disillusioned by the party's time in government, even though those who led the party back then are now in Blue Reform.

[Ethelberth]

Fully expecting PS to be getting 15%> of the vote in the end.

I hope so but am sceptical. Many supporters were left disillusioned by the party's time in government, even though those who led the party back then are now in Blue Reform.

You hope Putin becomes stronger in Finland?

[Aboa]

Fully expecting PS to be getting 15%> of the vote in the end.

I hope so but am sceptical. Many supporters were left disillusioned by the party's time in government, even though those who led the party back then are now in Blue Reform.

You hope Putin becomes stronger in Finland?

Halla-aho is not particularly pro-Russian though

[Helsinkian]

You hope Putin becomes stronger in Finland?

Halla-aho is not particularly pro-Russian though

Exactly.

Here are some of the statements Halla-aho has given in relation to Russia's actions in Ukraine:

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https://www.suomenuutiset.fi/mielenosoitus-venajan-suurlahetyston-edessa-kuvakooste/

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https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000002762891.html

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https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/201702172200072617_pi.shtml

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https://demokraatti.fi/halla-aho-yllattaa-varsin-suoraa-kritiikkia-omille-kansanedustajille-on-annettu-helppoja-syottoja-lapaan/

(Granted, this one was in response to a couple of the party's MPs giving pro-Russia statements.)

Halla-aho's comments regarding MV-lehti, a pro-Russian internet publication in Finland:

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https://www.uusisuomi.fi/kotimaa/188835-jussi-halla-aho-lyttaa-mv-sivuston-rakentaa-venaja-mielista-aarioikeistoa-suomeen

And, of course:

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https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/jussi-halla-aho-sanoo-illle-kannattavansa-suomen-nato-jasenyytta-61723/

So yeah, if Halla-aho is supposed to be a Putinist then he's really bad at being one.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is the Centre Party still as Kremlinist as it was back in the day?

[Helsinkian]

Is the Centre Party still as Kremlinist as it was back in the day?

Less so now that Paavo Väyrynen has finally left the party to pursue building his own party but there are certainly Centre politicians who are unhappy with the EU sanctions on Russia on the grounds that they harm Finnish agricultural exports. There aren't many NATO supporters in Centre but that's true of most other parties as well.

[Ethelberth]

The supporters of Finns Party are generally the most Russophile and Putinophile part of Finnish society. The farmers (core support of Centre party) were after Crimean war pro-sanctions, although it produced problem for them. Sensei knows his henchmen and has become pro-Putin recent years. That is quite simple.

[Helsinkian]

The supporters of Finns Party are generally the most Russophile and Putinophile part of Finnish society. The farmers (core support of Centre party) were after Crimean war pro-sanctions, although it produced problem for them. Sensei knows his henchmen and has become pro-Putin recent years. That is quite simple.

If by "sensei" you mean Halla-aho, then you are clearly wrong, as I have provided evidence to the contrary, all from recent years; this statement is from this year:

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https://demokraatti.fi/halla-aho-yllattaa-varsin-suoraa-kritiikkia-omille-kansanedustajille-on-annettu-helppoja-syottoja-lapaan/

By the way, how many NATO-supporting Finnish Putinophiles are you aware of?

Actual Finnish Putinophiles, like Johan Bäckman are strongly opposed to the Finns Party, with Bäckman even demanding that the party be abolished as "fascist": https://kohudosentti.blogspot.com/2015/07/backman-vaatii-oikeusministeriota.html

The biggest Russophiles in the Finnish parliament are Paavo Väyrynen, formerly Center, now of his own movement, and Erkki Tuomioja, Social Democrat.

The farmers (core support of Centre party) were after Crimean war pro-sanctions, although it produced problem for them.

Some leading members of Centre were opposed to sanctions, including the former PM Matti Vanhanen: https://www.suomenmaa.fi/uutiset/vanhanen-nakee-venajapakotteille-vaihtoehdon--sita-kutsutaan-diplomatiaksi-6.71.77924.c583db0a8a

[Ethelberth]

The suporters of PS trust both Trump and Putin more than the supporters of any other party

[Helsinkian]

The suporters of PS trust both Trump and Putin more than the supporters of any other party

So PS supporters who trust Putin (44%) are outnumbered by PS supporters who don't trust him (49%). And Halla-aho is clearly in the group that doesn't trust him.

[Ethelberth]

Sensei is not the only politician in that party.

[Aboa]

Relevantly Finnish magazine Seura published a survey about attitudes on foreign leaders today, on the right are attitudes of women:




Supporters for PS and Christian Democrats stand out from others in regards to both leaders 47% of PS supporters and 40% of Christian Democrats have favourable view on Trump while 26% of PS supporters and 19% of Christian Democrats have favourable view on Putin.

[Diouf]

Enjoy the final ride: LA unlikely to be part of new Blue government

DPP leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl has stated that he cannot support a government with LA after the next election, and a new poll shows that Liberal voters are not eager to continue the cooperation either. The Liberals have so far stated that they want the current government to be re-elected, but they haven't rejected the idea that another Blue government could be formed. Thulelsen Dahl prefers a Liberal - DPP government, perhaps with the Conservatives also, and that seems the preferred option of Liberal voters as well. This option is chosen by 23.9% of Liberal voters, while only 9.9% want the current government to continue. The very big coalition of Liberals, Social Democrats and DPP is preferred by 18%, but is of course completely unlikely to happen. This relatively high score shows why DPP leaders like to talk about how it would be great if these three parties "of the normal people" could find a common platform, although not enough for them to actually state it as their preferred government though. The idea is probably too far-fetched for that. The four-party coalition is the least preferred option; even less than another shot at a Liberal-only government.

The second part of the poll shows coalition preferences among all Blue voters. Here three options are basically tied at the top (Liberals + DPP, Liberals + DPP + Conservatives, Liberals + DPP + Social Democrats). The options including LA are again not very popular.

[TheSaint250]

What's the problem with LA?

[Diouf]

What's the problem with LA?

Well, first and foremost, they are very economically right-wing. Their main ideas are cutting the public sector significantly and lowering taxes (particularly for those with the highest earnings). These ideas are widely unpopular. So from the start, their basic policy ideas and visions are very unpopular among the left wing parties and voters, DPP and some Liberal voters.

The Liberals (and Conservatives) have then soured on the party after the behaviour of the party leader Anders Samuelsen during this term. In late 2016, he created a government crisis by repeatedly stating that he would take down the government if it did not pass tax cuts for high earners (something which the government couldn't do even if it wanted). In the end, he then changed course completely and accepted Løkke's offer to join the government, which in reality has largely followed standard Danish centrist economic policies (although some of its initial proposals have been quite right wing). Then Samuelsen lost his last remaining part of goodwill among the other parties in late 2017, when he repeatedly claimed his party would not vote for the 2018 budget if there was no deal on massive tax cuts. Again, he made a humiliating backtrack and accepted voting for the budget.

[Diouf]

Conservatives pick EP lead candidate



The Conservatives have picked Pernille Weiss, a completely unknown 50-year old business woman as their lead candidate for the 2019 European Elections. In the two last EP elections, the Conservative could rely on their former leader Bendt Bendtsen to get good results (12.7% in 2009 and 9.1% in 2014) and safely win a seat. Weiss does not have any name recognition at all, so could face a tough battle to retain the seat.

Weiss has a broad educational background. She is originally a nurse, but has added masters in Health Science and in Management and Innovation as well as certificates in Health Design and in Sexology. Recently she also started a master in Theology. Since 2008, she has run her own company which specializes in health architecture (hospitals, nursing homes etc.). She was a regional councillor 1996-2004 in Funen.

The rumour for long was that they would pick the very popular and well-known actor and TV-host Ole Stephensen, who had publicly declared his interest in the role. It will be interesting to see whether he will still run. It is almost impossible for anyone other than the lead candidate to be elected for a (max) one-seat party like the Conservatives because the lead candidate gets most of the attention and the spot in the TV debates. If Stephensen is to run, he might actually have a slight chance.




It is hard to gauge Weiss' chances in a more exact way yet. We don't know the lead candidate from neither Liberal Alliance nor DPP, and we don't know whether New Right will be able to run. If neither of those parties run great candidates, the Conservatives could have fine chances. However, despite a boost of optimism and some progress, they are still only at 3.9% in general election polling average (+0.5% compared to 2015 general election). They will also likely be helped by the fact that Danish indutry and media normally are very eager to state how crucial it is for Denmark to have a representative in the EPP during the last weeks of the campaign.

[Diouf]

While the Blue Bloc parties have had some fairly calm weeks, the Red Bloc parties are consumed with attacking each other. The Social Democrats are the target for most of the criticism. The Alternative leader Uffe Elbæk has said he wants to be PM, and might refuse to support Frederiksen as leader of the country. This has caused criticism from most of the other Red Bloc parties, but perhaps the attention received by Elbæk made the other parties panic. First the Red-Green Alliance leader Pernille Skipper declared herself a candidate for PM, while at the same time saying if that didn't happen, she would support Frederiksen. The Social Liberal Morten Østergaard followed up by setting a precondition for his support to Frederiksen; a written guarantee that the Social Democrats would not rely on the DPP and that the current immigration policies would be changed. This has become quite farcial, the joke of the day, and could hurt the Red Bloc's overall ability to win the next election. SPP are trying to be the calm voice, who will help and support the Social Democrats and draw it somewhat towards the left.

Polling average according to Ritzau as the last political season is going into full speed. Changes compared to 2015 election

Social Democrats 26.1% (-0.2%) 46 seats (-1)
Social Liberals 5.9% (+1.3%) 10 seats (+2)
Conservatives 3.9% (+0.5%) 7 seats (+1)
New Right 2.2% (new) 4 seats (new)
SPP 5.2% (+1.0%) 9 seats (+2)
Liberal Alliance 4.7% (-2.8%) 8 seats (-5)
Christian Democrats 0.7% (-0.1%) 0 seats (=)
DPP 18.5% (-2.6%) 33 seats (-4)
Liberals 19.2% (-0.3%) 34 seats (=)
Red-Green Alliance 8.9% (+1.3%) 16 seats (+2)
The Alternative 4.5% (-0.3%) 8 seats (-1)

Combined the so-called Red Bloc parties have 89 seats, while the Blue Bloc parties have 86. In the Faroe Islands, it is still very tight between the four big parties. However, currently the two Red parties are in government while the two Blue parties are in opposition, so we could easily see a turnaround of 2015, where the two Red parties won a seat each amid an unpopular Blue government. In Greenland, the two Red parties have been very dominant in recent years and won a seat each in 2015, but the 2018 Greenland election saw them both lose heavily. They are still favourites to retain a seat each, but it isn't unlikely that the Democrats could spring a surprise. They are quite blue on economic conditions, but will probably end up with the Social Liberals, so the bloc majority will not be affected. So on current polls, 91-88 Red Bloc win is predicted.

The next general election must be held on or before 17 June 2019, and it could basically be called any day from now until a few beeks before that June date. However, I don't think Løkke would prefer to let it run all the way, and have the election at the same time as the European elections. I think the outcome Løkke is going for is to call the election in the fall after a 2019 budget has been agreed between the government and DPP. The polls are not all that bad for the Blue parties, and if they manage to agree a budget with more money for health care plus a few more symbolic immigration tighetnings, they could be in a quite good shape for the election. The joker is what the Liberal Alliance will do. Will they accept such a budget with increased public spending and few/no tax cuts, and keep quiet for the sake of unity? Or will they again throw up all kind of tantrums and cause another disruption in the bloc. With the DPPs announcement that they would not support another government with LA in it, they know that they will be out of government soon, but that could affect their thinking either way. There is a small possiblity for some drama if a DPP backbencher or LA's Henrik Dahl defects to the New Right, once it becomes clearer and clearer for them that they will lose their seats. This could preempt the battle that will take place in case of a Blue Bloc majority after the next election; the New Right insists that they will only support Løkke as PM if he takes Denmark out of international conventions, so the universal asylum right can be removed and criminal immigrants deported. And while several Red Bloc parties are kicking and screaming right now and threaten not to support Frederiksen as PM, my hunch is that the New Right will be the party most determined to not support its side's PM if they don't get what they want. And unlike the Red Bloc parties, I think New Right voters would accept it, or even cheer it on.

[Diouf]

Two notable opposition MPs leave parliament



During the last week, two significant opposition MPs announced they were leaving parliament.
53-year old Christine Antorini (left) is currently a Social Democrat MP, but will leave parliament to become leader of LIFE, a science education foundation sponsored by Novo Nordisk. She studied political science and public administration, while having several significant roles in SPP Youth politics. She quickly rose in the ranks in the senior party, a member of the executive board in 1988, deputy leader in 1991 and MP in 1998. However, she left parliament already in 1999 and soon after announced she had joined the Social Democrats. She was head of the Danish Consumer Information and then TV host, before being elected MP for her new party in 2005. She was Minister of Education from 2011-2015, where she managed to find broad agreement for a relatively radical School Reform, which is still being fought about in schools, unions as well as local and national politics. The reform increased the lenth of the schoolday for all pupils, and introduced mandatory physical activity and "homework cafes" every day in an attempt to give children more equal chances to succeed. She impressively managed to get Liberals and DPP on board for this agreement, by giving the schools more freedom to make their own rules in certain areas, an increased history education and more focus on improving discipline in classrooms. However, with more classes to teach, it was neccesary with more teaching hours, so the government coerced the teachers into submission with a month-long lockout and then a government-decided collective agreement, that meant teachers had to spent more time teaching. This helped make the government very unpopular at the time, and poisioned negotiations between the state and the unions. Since 2016, the Minister of Education has been Liberal Alliance's Merete Riisager, who was one of the biggest opponents of the School Reform. She has tried to undermine it with different measures that does not have to pass parliament, such as making some "test schools" who does not have to follow the reform, so the battle over her legacy policy continues.
53-year old Josephine Fock (right) is currently an Alternative MP, but will leave to become Director of Integration in Danish Refugee Council. She is a Master of Law, and has primarily worked within the Trade Unions, both the nurse union and the union of academics. In 2013, she co-founded the Alternative alongside Uffe Elbæk. Her trade union experience helped bring some organization to the anarchic start-up party, but she also played a significant role in front of the cameras as an eloquent and calm propopent of the Alternative policies. In 2015, she won the second most personal votes of all Alternative candidates (3.775) and won a seat in Eastern Jutland. She became Group Leader for the party and spokesperson on Immigration, which meant her public familarity increased further during the refugee crisis. However, she also became one of the victims of the internal war in the party. She was clearly a part of the Realos wing that had disagreements with the Fundis wing, both in terms of policy questions and behaviour(many in the radical wing had a party-intensive, sexualized culture, which later caused harrassment allegations). In 2017, her and Political Spokesperson Rasmus Nordquist (from the Fundis wing) both left their roles (the two most important roles after the party leader) in an attempt to create unity in the party. So it is perhaps not that surprising that she is now leaving parliament completely.

[Diouf]

Minister of Culture aims for EP seat



The 61-year old Mette Bock, Minister of Culture for the Liberal Alliance, will be the party's lead candidate for the European elections next year. She is probably the strongest possible candidate for the party, and looks likely to win the first EP seat for Liberal Alliance despite their current unpopularity. Bock's background is primarily in the media world; she worked as a journalist for several years before becoming chief editor in 2002 at Jydske Vestkysten, a large regional newspaper based in Esbjerg. She had a short stint in DR, the state broadcaster, before being elected MP for the Liberal Alliance in 2011. In 2015, she had an amazing election. She won 11.588 personal votes, the second highest of all LA candidates (only beaten by her brother, party leader Anders Samuelsen). It was also the second highest of all candidates in the Southern Jutland multi-member constituency (only beaten by DPP leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl). In 2016, Bock became Minister of Culture and Ecclesiastical Affairs, and she has managed to become less unpopular than most of the other LA ministers. Like Minister of Education Merete Riisager, Bock is governing on policies that are broadly popular among centre-right voters (primarily deep cuts to state broadcaster DR).

[bigic]

Which European Parliament group LA would join? They wanted to join ALDE back in 2009, I don't know whether they would do now as they became more eurosceptic and libertarian?

[EPG]

Yes, they had two MEPs in two different groups upon their creation, one being ALDE. I assume the Liberal Alliance leader's sister would join whichever European group she cared to join. We are talking here about one of the most top-heavy governing parties in Europe with almost no grassroots or local base. In any other circumstances, I would guess ECR if it were happening today? They are quite hostile to the EU.

[Diouf]

The party started out in 2007 as the New Alliance, a very Macronista-style party. Two of the founders were MEP; one Conservative in EPP and one Social Liberal in ALDE. By 2009, the party had completely collapsed and two of the three founders had left the party, which the remaining founder Anders Samuelsen turned the party into the Liberal Alliance. They were now primarily focused on right-wing economic reforms. In the 2009 EP campaing, the young student Benjamin Dickow seemed quite EU-positive, although wanting radical reforms of the budget (stop spending on CAP etc.), and the party was in an electoral alliance with Liberals and Conservatives. The party was so far from getting a seat, so I'm not sure they even thought much about where to sit, but ALDE would have seemed logical. As the party started to re-establish itself, it became more Eurosceptic. The focus was still on cutting costs and bureaucracy, but they also started to use the terms of sovereignty and self-determination. So in the 2014 EP election, the party deemed itself so far from Liberals and Conservatives that they ran on their own. When asked, the party said they would prefer a new group of somewhat Eurosceptic liberals, but that was never going to happen. They had some contacts with the AECR, so they would probably have joined ECR. In the 2015 EU justice opt-in campaign, they campaigned for no. However, since entering government in the end of 2016, the Euroscepticism has been toned down. They have decided to run in an electoral alliance with the Liberals and Conservatives at EP 2019, so in that way they are back among the standard pro-European centre-right parties. This makes it harder to predict where they will end up. With British Conservatives out of ECR, that group is probably less attractive for them, but neither EPP nor ALDE is a fantastic fit either. I guess their campaign answer will be the same:"We hope to build a new group".