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November 17, 2019, 04:23:09 am
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  The Great Nordic Thread
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Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1Iceland, but not Norway  
#2Norway, but not Iceland  
#3Both  
#4None of them  
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Total Voters: 153

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Diouf
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« Reply #1125 on: November 30, 2018, 11:15:06 am »

Budget 2019 agreed - election on the horizon

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The government and DPP today agreed on the budget for 2019. The deal includes new tighter immigration rules, better conditions for pensioners and some reductions in duties and fees as well as a few aspects to improve air quality.
On immigration, DPP has long demanded a "paradigm shift" so focus is on refugees returning to their home country instead of integrating them. The parties agree on this general idea and have agreed some measures, but it is doubtful whether the the consequence will be significant. The measures include clear and continuous information to refugees that they will only stay here temporarily, residence permits will be extended only if it is required by international conventions, municipalities are no longer forced to find permanent housing for refugees and can opt for temporary options, lower benefits for refugees and increased funds for diplomats to arrange better deals with the countries which should take back refugees. So many ways to make life worse for the refugees here as well as minor shifts that might make it easier legally to send them home, but doesn't sound like a "paradigm shift". Therefore DPP seems to focus their promotion efforts on the "moving foreigners to a remote island" part, whereby criminal foreigners who are on the deportation list, are moved to a new center on an island (Lindholm) instead of their current placement at a center outside a minor town in Central Jutland where they have harrassed citizens and shops. These criminal foreigners, who have completed their sentence, will also be much easier to put into jail again if they fail to stay at the centre when required to.
Pensioners will now see their state pensions rise in full accordance with salaries; hitherto 0.3% had been held back each year, slowly eroding the value of the pension. Pensioners will see less reductions in their state pensions if their partner is still working, and they will get economic bonuses if they work longer than the retirement age.
The general waste fee for companies (paid by every company, even those without trash cans) will be removed, the levies on boats, air planes, animal fodder and wine are reduced.
Finally, the government will allow major cities to increase the demands to improve air quality and provide funds to better catch those who do not follow the environmental rules. Also more areas of nature will be preserved and there will be financial encouragements to phase out old cars and machines with high emissions.

This is expected to be the last major deal before the next general election, which must be held at latest 17 June 2019. However, there are European elections on 26 May 2019, so it is expected that the election will take place at latest in late March/early April.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1126 on: December 17, 2018, 08:51:49 am »

Finland now has a "Seven Stars Movement".

MP Paavo Väyrynen, a former long-time Center Party politician and four-time presidential candidate, who belonged to the party's conservative and eurosceptic wing, founded a new party called Citizens' Party in 2016. Though he himself wrote the rules of that party in such a way that the party's membership was to be kept small and thus managable, he nevertheless suffered a "coup" in the new party, with the new party leadership expelling him (the case is being contested in courts).

Early this year Väyrynen toyed with running for Center Party chairman but was forced to back down when it became apparent that Center would change its rules to prevent him from doing so. He then resigned from Center, two years after founding his own party.

Being thus rejected by both Center and the Citizens' Party, Väyrynen founded a second party in two years, naming it the Seven Stars Movement (while the name is clearly inspired by Italian example, Väyrynen claims that it is a reference to the Big Dipper). Now he claims to have gathered the 5,000 signatures needed to register the party.

Supposedly the party will be centrist and mildly eurosceptic, though satisfying Väyrynen's egotism will doubtlessly be its main purpose.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1127 on: December 22, 2018, 07:47:35 am »

Berlingske polling average at the end of 2018 before the election year of 2019 (compared to 2015 election)

Social Democrats 26.5% (+0.2%) 47 seats (=)
Social Liberals 6.4% (+1.8%) 11 seats (+3)
Conservatives 4.1% (+0.7%) 7 seats (+1)
New Right 2.3% (new) 4 seats (new)
SPP 5.6% (+1.4%) 10 seats (+3)
Liberal Alliance 4.9% (-2.6%) 9 seats (-4)
Christian Democrats 0.8% (=) 0 seats (=)
DPP 18.3% (-2.8%) 32 seats (-5)
Liberals 18.2% (-1.3%) 32 seats (-2)
Red-Green Alliance 9.0% (+1.2%) 16 seats (+2)
Alternative 3.9% (-0.9%) 7 seats (-2)

Red Bloc 51.4% (+3.7%) 91 seats (+6)
Blue Bloc 48.6% (-3.7%) 84 seats (-6)

In Faroe Islands I haven't seen a Folketing poll for some time, but in polls for the Faroese parliament Fólkaflokkurin (pro-independence, conservative) seems to have pulled ahead to around 25%, while the three other major parties, Tjóðveldi (pro-independence, socialist), Javnaðarflokkurin (unionist, social democrat) and Sambandsflokkurin (unionist, liberal), are fairly equal at around 20%. In 2015, the two left-wing parties won a seat each, but if these polls are transferable to Folketing election, then it seems likely that at least one and possibly two seats will be right-wing this time. Before the last Folketing election, Tjóðveldi made some noises about not automatically supporting Thorning's government. I'm no expert on Faroese politics, but I would expect all four parties to fall in line behind "their side", at least for the PM vote.

Greenland might be more exciting than for some years. The two big parties, Siumut (Social Democrat) and IA (Socialist) have been much bigger than their competitors for several years. However, in the 2018 Greenlandic election both parties lost votes and only ended up on 27.2% and 25.5% respectively. And after the April election, the new Siumut-led government only lasted for a few months before the most radical pro-independence party (Parti Naleraq) left the government due to Danish support and ownership of new airports. Siumut scrambled together a new coalition, but that coalition crisis might have damaged Siumut further. IA's popular leader Sara Olsvig (biggest number of personal votes) has resigned, so IA could have problems as well. However, I haven't seen any polls at all since the April election, so it's hard to know how the current situation is. The closest competitor to the two main parties in 2018 were Demokraterne (liberal, probably closest to Social Liberals) on 19.5%, while Partii Naleraq received 13.4% (but might have gained more due to opposition to Danish air port influence). Certainly, the most likely scenario remains two seats for Red Bloc parties (especially if Demokraterne would sit with the Social Liberals) but it seems that things are more unpredictable than recently. Currently, Aleqa Hammond (elected for Siumut, now at very pro-independence Nunatta Qitornai), one of the two current MPs, is supoorting the government in return for being chair of the Greenlandic Committee.

So combined, current situation is probably 93 seats for Red Bloc, 85 seats for Blue Bloc and the last Faroese seat is very tight. And of course the whole Bloc division is less certain than previously. New Right is not superprecise nor consistent in its messaging, but they could refuse to support/vote against Løkke if he refuses to break international conventions on immigration policy. And it's probably the party who could best allow it as many of their voters might think "it doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it does not catch mice". Alternative and Social Liberals have also made noises about no automatic support for Frederiksen and proposing their own leaders as PM candidates etc, but I think they would fall into line easier.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1128 on: January 01, 2019, 12:41:05 pm »

How well has these ministers carried out their job on a scale from 1 to 100?
Kantar Gallup for Berlingske.
The bottom six ministers are all the Liberal Alliance ministers. This is to some extent a reflection of Liberal Alliance's status as a very divisive party due to their economic policies; most left-wing voters and DPP voters will rate them all low. Riisager and Bock were previously the only two to avoid the bottom due to being quite competent and fairly popular policies (more discipline in schools & softening the long school day requirements for the former and cutting the state broadcaster for the latter). But now they seem to be soaked up by general LA unpopularity and both are probably getting less attention due to not running again.
The top six ministers can be placed in three different categories. The two top ministers and Liberal leaders, the PM and the Finance Minister. This might reflect that the Liberals and the whole government no longer talk much about ambitious economic reforms with unpopular tax cuts, but are now on a more centrist line with emphasis on welfare spending. Also there haven't been many visible disagreements between the Blue Bloc parties in many months, so their leadership skills aren't challenged. The two tough on crime/foreigners ministers, Justice Minister and Immigration Minister, have consistently been in the top of these lists. This reflects the popularity of these viewpoints among most Blue Bloc voters and a fair bit of Social Democrats. Finally, the two new youngish, charismatic Liberal ministers, Food & Environment and Higher Education & Research, are both in the top. The PM will hope that these two ministers can help the Liberals among younger, urban voters. The two ministers run in Aarhus and Copenhagen respectively and themes like environment and education are areas, where the government try to make appeals after having somewhat neglected them in the first part of the term.

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Diouf
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« Reply #1129 on: January 09, 2019, 03:57:23 pm »
« Edited: January 09, 2019, 05:33:34 pm by Diouf »

Could radical fraudster ride tax scandals to a place on the ballot (or even into parliament)?

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In just two months, Klaus Riskær Pedersen has collected 11.261 signatures of the 20.109 necessary for the party in his own name to run at the upcoming general election. The signatures must be in place at least 15 days before election date, so if the election is held in late March or early April, Riskær Pedersen should have a real shot at getting his party on the ballot. His main selling point is a complete change of the taxation system. In recent years, the Danish tax authorities has been hit by one scandal after the other. Foreign fraudsters cheated them out of billions, a new IT tax collection system failed horribly and eventually had to be abandoned, the property tax system has been making inaccurate value evaluation for years etc. Riskær's solution to the mess is a radical overhaul. He wants to abolish corporation tax (which is only on surpluses), and instead introduce revenue taxation. He wants to abolish property tax (which is a % of property value), and introduce taxation per square meter, also for tenants. Abolish income tax (with progressively higher taxation), and introduce a flat income charge of 23%. He also wants to double land taxes, energy taxes and green taxes. VAT will be raised to 30%. He will make all income from abroad tax free for companies and citizens. He wants to make a Glass–Steagallish solution for banks and financial companies and introduce a financial transaction tax. The different kinds of unemployment benefits will be phased out and replaced by a basic income.

63-year old Klaus Riskær Pedersen is a household name in Denmark, primarily for his investments and criminal record in the financial sector, but he has also been in the political realm a number of times. Since the late seventies, he has invested in a number of different companies with very different degrees of success and legality. He has owned major newspaper companies and IT companies. He has been convicted twice for fraud, embezzlement, fraudulent conveyance etc. His most recent sentence was in 2008 and was imprisoned until 2013. In 1989, he ran for the European Parliament for the Liberals, and was elected as one of three Liberal MEPs, ahead of among others Lars Løkke Rasmussen. In 1993, he was thrown out of the party as the first criminal case started to roll. Since then he has twice tried to start a new party without much success. In 2015, he joined the Alternative and wanted to be a parliamentary candidate. However, within a week he was ejected from the party due to "his lack of loyalty to the party and its project, and lack of trust in his ability to represent the party's ideals and visions". Shortly after he joined the Christian Democrats, but similar opposition from the top of that party, meant he left almost as quickly. And then in early November 2018, he launched his own party "Klaus Riskær Pedersen", which has already gathered an impressive number of signatures.

He spends all/most of his time on the tax changes, and attacking everything that has gone wrong. On his homepage he mentions other issues. Public transportation will be free. Radical measures to combat climate change and environmental problems. Largely a status quo on immigration, but all Danish citizens should be able to bring their spouse to the country. Stronger data protection rules, especially aimed at government collection of data. Stay in EU and remove defence opt-out, but keep other two opt-outs. Restriction on sale of alcohol and cigarettes, as well as added fees on these products. Birth rate should be increased to 2.1 through financial incentives. Relationsship to Russia should be normalized, less interventions in foreign wars. Greenland's home rule should be restricted, and instead they should play a larger role in Denmark while American military access to Greenland should be restricted. Political parties should use primaries to choose their candidates, and work in parliament should be independent from political parties. Increased funds for Danish culture, and more education in Christianity, cultural values and morality.

Riskær states that the party will have no other members, no other candidates and no board. It will only be him. If he sticks to that plan, he will de facto run as an independent in one multi-member constituency (Copenhagen, most likely), and try to win a seat. However, the advantage of running as a party is that he will then be allowed equal treatment with participation in election debates and an election program with his party. Should his party fail to gather enough signatures, you could imagine him running anyway as a real independent as that only takes a couple of hundred signatures. However, that would make it much harder to be elected as it would be much more difficult to get a media buzz. It is still very early days for the party, and therefore hard to predict the chances of his party. There is definitively a large degree of anger in the public about the failings of the tax authorities, and that alone could be enough to convince some voters. The political parties have mainly tried to push blame around for the failings, and then made common agreements to significantly boost the number of employees in the taxation authority. However, there has been little discussion of changing the tax code completely. Anecdotally, a LA supporter from central Copenhagen really likes him and his ideas, and I guess his policy mix would be mostly popular among certain urban groups. The consequences of his taxation policy would probably be quite tough for low-earners and unemployed persons, but with an overarching message more like "burn it to the ground", he could perhaps sway protest voters in low income groups as well.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1130 on: January 18, 2019, 04:21:31 am »

Agreement on four party cabinet

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The four centre-right parties in Norway have now agreed on forming a new four party cabinet. Negotiations started after the extraordinary KrF party congress chose that path. KrF managed to get concessions on some of their key issues. This includes a ban on the so-called "twin reduction" (aborting one or more foetus, but leaving one foetus if a woman is expecting more than one child) & a veto on changes to biotechnology laws which means that the rules will not be changed so that singles can have artificial insemination. Frp managed to get some concessions on immigration (floor of 3.000 UN quota refugees and tougher family reunification rules). Liberals focused on getting more ambitious goals for co2 reduction, but there are little agreement on how to do this.

The vote in KrF's party board, where a majority wanted to work with the centre-left, to accept the agreement was very tight. The agreement was only accepted 19-17 as four of the "red" members decided to support the agreement. In the Liberals, the agreement was accepted with 38-7 in the board, while Frp accepted it unanimously. I haven't seen a result from Høyre, but probably without dissent as well.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1131 on: January 22, 2019, 11:36:42 am »

New Norwegian Cabinet

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The new Norwegian four-party majority government was presented today. It has been expanded to 22 members (H 9, Frp 7, V 3 & KrF 3). The two KrF deputy leaders Kjell Ingolf Ropstad and Olaug Bollestad, who both supported joining Solberg's government, will be Minister for Children and Families and Minister for Food and Agriculture respectively. Dag Inge Ulstein, who supported joining the centre-left, will be new Minister for International Development. A new KrF leader will be elected in April as Hareide resigned after his defeat in the government question. Bollestad is acting leader, but is not expected to run. The 33-year old Ropstad is considered the favourite, but several voices in the party claims he's too divisive/too far towards the party's right wing, and mentions 52-year old Hans Olav Syversen (MP 2005-2017) as an option.

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Diouf
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« Reply #1132 on: February 04, 2019, 03:03:21 pm »

Could radical fraudster ride tax scandals to a place on the ballot (or even into parliament)?

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In just two months, Klaus Riskær Pedersen has collected 11.261 signatures of the 20.109 necessary for the party in his own name to run at the upcoming general election. The signatures must be in place at least 15 days before election date, so if the election is held in late March or early April, Riskær Pedersen should have a real shot at getting his party on the ballot.

He is now at 15.156 signatures, so he seems to keep the pace towards getting on the ballot.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1133 on: February 04, 2019, 03:45:02 pm »

I see that Denmark is building a fence on the German border, ostensibly to stop wild boars:

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https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2019/jan/28/denmark-begins-work-on-wall-to-keep-out-wild-boar

Maybe Trump could adopt this argument regarding the US-Mexico wall?
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Diouf
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« Reply #1134 on: February 09, 2019, 11:56:29 am »

Update on Klaus Riskær Pedersen after a few interviews recently.

He now says that he will not be the only candidate. He himself will run in the Copenhagen multi-member constituency, but that the party will run candidates in all other constituencies with the possible exception of Bornholm. It will be interesting to see what kind of candidates he has attracted. He also states that once the party is established, it will find a new name instead of "Klaus Riskær Pedersen".

When asked about ideology, he says that he is a "red conservative". He says that he is focused on community, and opposed to the "new liberalism" and its extreme focus on the individual. "I'm sick and tired of people like Lars Seier Christensen (big LA donor) and Lars Tvede (Pernille Vermund's fiancee and presumably New Right donor), who from tax heavens in Switzerland explain to us how terribly we are running this country. With cooperation and unity, we have created this amazing country. One cannot only think about oneself", he states.

In relation to his short term stint in the Alternative, he says that he tried to unsuccesfully convince Uffe Elbæk that the party needed a "twist of business" as well. "This is what my own party manages to do. We need cool heads and warm hearts", he explains. He expands on his ideas to combat climate change, and wants Denmark to overtake Sweden and become "first mover" in that area. He claims his new tax plan will help do this, but also suggests other ways. One solution is to offer farmers to pay off their debts if they change into sustainable farms. He sees plans like these as more helpful than moralist preaches as the Alternative prefers.

He attacks New Right and their leader Pernille Vermund. "I won't run around making out with TV hosts just to get some limelight like she has done*. There are limits. Also, I don't have the aggression in me as she has. If you talk like the New Right, lashing out at everybody and always smearing people, then it will be very difficult to get any respect and influence. If you act with some decency, then even one man can make a lot happen. I don't get the New Right's political project at all. It is based on this conception of hate towards foreigners. We have spend the last 20 years on this, and the Danes are so tired of hearing about it".

In terms of PM, he states that he will not vote out Lars Løkke after an election, but that the big focus on who will become PM is absurd: "Nobody should care much about who's PM. At a maximum it makes 10% difference one way or the other. All Danes are fundamentally Social Democrats".

*Vermund has done this a few times with satirist TV host Jonathan Spang: https://www.bt.dk/politik/vermund-fortaeller-om-langt-og-intenst-tungekys-i-dr2-program-jeg-er-lidt
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Diouf
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« Reply #1135 on: February 13, 2019, 11:31:03 am »
« Edited: February 13, 2019, 02:49:56 pm by Diouf »

Klaus Riskær Pedersen now at 18 354 signatures. It only needs 1 755 more to be on the ballot, which it should certainly manage now.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1136 on: February 18, 2019, 08:59:11 am »

Klaus Riskær Pedersen has managed to gather the necessary amount of signatures, and the party will now be the 12th and likely last to secure a place on the ballot at the general election.
The signatures were collected in only 118 days. This means more than 170 signatures were collected and double-approved a day. Only New Alliance in 2007 has been quicker in modern history. Although in the last few years, the signatures can be collected online with ID-approval, which have made it somewhat easier. Klaus Riskær Pedersen will have a press conference tomorrow.

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Diouf
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« Reply #1137 on: February 19, 2019, 06:34:18 am »

Klaus Riskær Pedersen ready to disrupt Danish politics

Today Klaus Riskær Pedersen set out the main goals of his party with the same name. He set out himself as the necessary corrective in Danish politics to avoid it reaching the same broken standards as in the US and the UK, and to avoid yellow vests on the streets. His party will include candidates with life (and preferably business) experience, and not students of politics without any real jobs. Three of the other candidates have already been announced. Peter Hjorth, a former General Manager at Maersk; Christina Asklund, a current Business Leader at the Oslo Cruiseships; and Rolf David Gøtze, a former soldier in the Army with deployments to Balkan and currently CEO of a online gastro booking company. The party's logo has been made by his friend, the artist Peter Wibroe, and symbolizes that the party takes aspects from Red and Blue politics, as well the bond between Denmark and Europe.

In terms of politics, he restated many of the previous messages. That he is a "red conservative", that the biggest priority is re-building the tax system from scratch with a system where companies pay a far larger share of the total taxes. Also strong efforts to tackle carbon emissions will be crucial. I can add that in Facebook ads targeting younger voters, he is emphasizing free cannabis as well. He also repeated that he would support Løkke as PM as a start, but that it doesn't matter much who is PM. He said he would lean towards Løkke due to the common ground on believing in enterprises and businesses, while the Social Democrats had become too much a party of standstill, close relations to DPP and opposition to successful people. He feels immigration policy has been tighetened enough, that children should not live in refugee centers, and that Danes should be able to marry who they want and bring them here.

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« Reply #1138 on: February 19, 2019, 08:06:24 am »
« Edited: February 19, 2019, 09:27:26 am by DavidB. »

So Riskaer Pedersen will probably mostly attract Liberal/RV/LA voters?

Given that the government still hasn't called an election, would it be in late April at the earliest now? Or perhaps together with the EP elections?

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Diouf
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« Reply #1139 on: February 19, 2019, 09:52:36 am »

So Riskaer Pedersen will probably mostly attract Liberal/RV voters?

Given that the government still hasn't called an election, would it be in late April at the earliest now? Or perhaps together with the EP elections?

That will be interesting to see once we get some polling. If this was a normal party by a defecting MP or something like that, I would agree that they would be very similar to New Alliance in 2007, a social liberal party which wants to support a centre-right government and would attract (primarily urban) voters from Social Liberals, Liberal Alliance, and perhaps the Alternative plus some soft Liberal and Social Democrat voters. However, I can't really figure out how Riskær Pedersen's style, history and unorthodox policies will go down. While he declares himself as the saviour of the system from the chaos of Brexit and Trump, he also uses standard populist attacks against the establishment (young politicians without experience, they don't listen to the people, "politicians have become bureaucrats, and bureaucrats have become politicians"). He has been convicted twice for financial fraud etc. While some parts of his program is quite standard socially  liberal (green, softer on migration, free cannabis etc.), his economic/taxation policies are very hard to pin down in one place. His general rhetoric of breaking up the banks, taxing financial transactions, moving a much larger part of the tax burden onto companies, make sure international companies pay taxes etc. sound very similar to the Red-Green Alliance, but on the other hand some of the specific policies are very regressive, raising VAT, flat income tax and taxing square meters (even for tenants!) instead of property value.
So there are things that should appeal to different kind of voters, but will they then be repelled by other policies and/or his criminal background? Will a Red-Green voter by repelled by his business background and emphasis on succesfull business people? Will the Social Liberal be repelled by his populist rhetoric? Will the Liberal Alliance voter be repelled by some far-left economic rhetoric and breaking up banks? Or will they focus on the policies they like and the newness of the party?
Perhaps politicians are the not the best figures to judge this on, but former Liberal Minister Søren Pind, a somewhat socially liberal person in the Liberals, have come out in arms against Riskær, and wants parliament to declare him unfit immediately if elected (which most MPs have rejected so far). Similarly the ultra-social liberal #FBPE Stine Bosse, leader of the European Movement, have been very critical. Those two would probably have been quite happy for a standard socially liberal centre-right party.

In terms of election date, the thinking is it will be held before Easter or at the 26 May with the EP elections. The election must be called at least 20 days before the chosen election date. One political commentator has looked at all 100 available days left here and coloured them red, yellow or green.

http://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2019-02-15-valgkalender-0
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« Reply #1140 on: February 25, 2019, 06:15:19 am »

First poll with Klaus Riskær Pedersen included for Voxmeter.
The party is at 1.4%, but no information has been published on where they get the voters from (tiny sample certainly). Their party letter application has not been approved yet, but I believe he has applied for E. Since he has said that he would allow Løkke to continue as PM, he is included in the Blue Bloc. The blocs are generally more unstable than in the previous years, and all parties in a bloc might not end up supporting the bloc's PM candidate.
In this term, Voxmeter generally has had New Right and DPP polling lower than the polling average, and Social Democrats and Liberals higher than the polling average.

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« Reply #1141 on: February 26, 2019, 03:58:55 pm »

A new spyr.fo/Portalin poll of the Faroe Islands confirm that it will once again be a tight 4-horse race for the 2 Faroese spots in parliament.

People's Party (pro-independence, right wing) 23.9%
Union Party (pro-union, right wing) 22.6%
Social Democratic Party (pro-union, left wing) 22.5%
Republic (pro-independence, left wing) 20.21%

So if this is the result, then the Faroe Islands go from two red seats to two blue seats. Particularly the pro-independence parties like to say that they will not automatically support a certain party or PM candidate, but in the end they are expected to line-up behind their usual cooperation partners. With the current clear red majority in Danish opinion polls, it is unlikely to make a decisive influence.

https://portal.fo/dagur-14019/veljarakanning-baedi-sjurdur-og-magni-falla.grein
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« Reply #1142 on: February 28, 2019, 05:30:17 am »

New Epinion poll for DR. Epinion normally does not have really significant house effects, so it is interesting that it shows many of the same patterns as the Voxmeter one. DPP is way down compared with 2015 without an extraordinary result for the New Right. So there are likely to be a certain share of DPP to Soc.Dem movement. Red-Greens, SPP and Social Liberals are all up a decent amount. Riskær at 1.8% here, so even closer to the threshold.

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« Reply #1143 on: February 28, 2019, 01:24:10 pm »

Megafon for TV2/Politiken has DPP even lower, at 13.4%. Riskær only at 1.3%, below Christian Democrats. Social Democrats, as usual, lower in Megafon polls, while there are very strong performances by three of the other Red Bloc parties.

Social Democrats 24.4%
Social Liberals 7.0%
Conservatives 3.8%
New Right 3.4%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 1.3%
SPP 8.0%
Liberal Alliance 5.4%
Christian Democrats 1.4%
DPP 13.4%
Liberals 18.0%
Red-Green Alliance 10.1%
Alternative 3.8%
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« Reply #1144 on: March 06, 2019, 08:59:35 am »

So Riskaer Pedersen will probably mostly attract Liberal/RV/LA voters?

I think the most likely voters for Riskjær are the anti-establishment voters. So yes some voters who voted LA the last time likely will vote for him this time. But those voters would likely vote NB instead. So I think the most likely loser on him running will be NB and Alternative (but to lesser extent than the former)

Given that the government still hasn't called an election, would it be in late April at the earliest now? Or perhaps together with the EP elections?

The PM have call election 21 days before thhe election. In theory he could call it with a closer date, but that's purely theory and the courts would likely intervene if he tried that.

Personally I expect him to wait to the last possible date, so he can get the last pay check.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1145 on: May 10, 2019, 06:52:42 am »

YLE's post-election poll sees Finns Party leading (changes compared to the election):

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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1146 on: June 19, 2019, 12:02:53 pm »

Finland's Ministry of Education and Culture has cancelled the public funding granted to the Finns Party's youth organisation because of a tweet the organisation sent last month. The tweet in question, later deleted, included a screencaption from a European Parliament ad that depicted black people; the youth organisation had added a text which exhorted people to vote for the Finns Party "so that Finland's future won't look like this".

Finns Party leader Jussi Halla-aho criticized the youth wing for this tweet. There are some echoes from the conflict between the Sweden Democrats and their youth wing some years ago. It should be noted that the Finns Party youth organisation has a curious arrangement where one can be their member without being a member of the party proper.

At the same time, the Finns Party has broken 20% in the polls (Alma Media / Tietoykkönen):

Finns Party 20.1%
NCP 17.2%
SDP 16.2%
Greens 13.6%
Centre 13%
Left Alliance 8.2%
SPP 4.8%
CD 3%
Others 3.9%
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1147 on: November 07, 2019, 02:34:01 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2019, 03:06:47 am by Helsinkian »

Finns Party pulls a six point lead; SDP falls to fourth. Finns Party has led all the polls following the election.

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