The Great Nordic Thread

[politicus]

Seven years after Kaupþing, Landsbanki and Glitnir crashed Iceland on Friday repaid their last emergency loan to the IMF (332 mio. dollar), which wasn't due until 31 October 2016, so they save some interests. This officially ends the crisis program and the last remnants of IMF oversight of Icelandic economic policies.

[politicus]

Icelandic Minister of Education and Culture Illugi Gunnarsson (IP) is increasingly in trouble. After having denied any live interviews for six months and demanding other journalists could not write about his personal finances if they were to interview him he has now been forced to speak about an alleged corruption affair due to questioning in the Althing by the Pirates and Left Greens.

After the 20008 crash Gunnarrsson had to take a break from politics after a Glitnir owned investment fund he worked for was investigated for fraud. During his absence he worked as a consultant for Orka Energy, an Icelandic company working with geothermic energy in Asia, based in Singapore, but returned to politics in 2013 and entered the cabinet.

Orka Energy is owned by Vietnam based Icelandic businessman Haukur Harðarson, and was founded on the remnants of Reykjavík Energy Invest, a failed overseas investment project set up by municipal energy company Orkuveita Reykjavíkurs. Harðarson bought Orka Energy for peanuts due to his contacts in IP and recently renamed it Arctic Green Energy.

In March Illugi Gunnarsson went to China to promote Icelandic trade relations (given that trade matters aren't exactly a natural part of the Ministry of Educations resort that was in itself a bit dubious), and reps for two companies accompanied him: food industry giant (by Icelandic standards) Marel and tiny Orka Energy with no production or offices on Iceland. Gunnarsson helped secure a number of contracts with state owned Chinese companies. Among them state owned Sinopec, which is now their main partner. He had done a similar trip in 2013 and on one other occasion.

He has subsequently denied any conflicts of interests or special treatment, but he basically went bankrupt in 2008, and sold his condo in Reykjavík till OG Capital owned by Haukur Harðarson, which he now hires to a sub market value rent and they took over his substantial debt when they bought it, which was about 140% of its value. He has also subsequently received a 3 mio. Icelandic kronur personal loan and various gifts such as high priced salmon fishing trips to highland rivers in high season (among the most costly fishing anywhere in the world). So seems pretty obvious he is lying. Also “failed” to declare his interests in the company to the Althing, which he is legally obliged to do.

Gunnarsson is a close ally of IP leader Bjarni Benediktsson, who will fight to keep him, and this isn't the biggest scandal ever, but it does remind voters of the old pre-crash IP and how Orka Energy came to exist in the first place.

[politicus]

New poll shows Danish Muslims are becoming more religious - and that the younger generation is more religious than their parents (who often have immigrants background).


Koran based rules should be followed to the full extent by Muslims:

2006: 62%
2015: 77%


Pray more than 5 times a day:

2006: 37%
2015: 50%


Women should be veiled when appearing in the public space:

2006: 28%
2015: 42%

[politicus]

Conservative writer Mads Holger has created this Conservative tipping coupon of the various right wing groups:



The categories are:

National
Economically responsible
Educated and culturally responsible
Organizationally competent
Intellectual
Homogenous
Charismatic
Christian
Socially responsible
Appeals to young people
Is currently on the advance
Has a Conservative approach to the EU
Appeals to the general population

Fairly accurate. The Conservative Peoples Party finish last. "Den konservative opinion" refers to Conservative pundits, bloggers, talking heads and intellectuals taken as one group.

[politicus]

Very interesting that "Christian" is deemed relevant. Didn't expect that.

Also quite interesting that DF is considered Christian, whereas the Dutch PVV has quite similar positions on social (and national) issues and is deemed a very secular party, which is a common criticism from Christian parties - who are, of course, also afraid to lose voters, so it's up for debate how intellectually honest this criticism is, but still, the difference in common perception is remarkable. Has everything to do with the difference between Danish and Dutch history, cleavages, and the parliamentary presence of "real" Christian parties in the Netherlands, of course.

Anyhow, this chart quite adequately shows why I still support DF even if their economic policies are not exactly what I'd wish for (to put it mildly).

Christian takes on a different meaning in a country with an established church. It basically means supporters of keeping an established church, keep Knowledge of Christianity as a school subject (and making it mandatory) and being culturally Christian in some vague general sense. DPP voters are actually the least church-going apart from Red Greens, but they use the church to signal Danish ethnicity. It is part of "the ethnic package" so to speak. And they have a small, but influential segment of orthodox Lutherans from the Tidehverv movement + some from fundi free churches. People who would be KD in Sweden, but are either too right wing for the Danish KD, or just consider it a lost cause.

"God, King and country" is the traditional catch-phrase to sum up Conservatism in Denmark, which influences this. Again, part of the package of being a so-called "arch-Conservative" is some reverence for (Lutheran) Christianity whether you are personally agnostic, Jewish etc.

Generally agnostics and religious minorities who acknowledge cultural Christianity as a key component of Danish culture are considered fine, atheists are not. But its all very vaguely defined, or rather not defined at all.

The "blacks" in KU are anti-Church, but then again they are hardly Conservatives at all. And generally do not continue as members of the parent party.

[politicus]

How much diversity is there within the Danish Lutheran church in terms of progressivism/conservatism? Are many Danes "culturally Christian" yet not practicing?

1) It is overwhelmingly liberal given that the Grundtvigian tradition of "happy Christianity" is so strong, and secularization so thorough. There is a conservative wing in the church with the two pietistic laymen movements Inner Mission and Lutheran Mission plus so-called high church Ministers (traditionalists unrelated to the layman movements), but outside certain areas of Jutland the fundamentalists are weak/non-existent and even in their strongholds only 7-8% would be fundamentalist. Modern Denmark doesn't have much of a Bible Belt left.
Politically a large number of Ministers are on the left with SPP being the biggest "Minister party" and this also influence their theology to some extent. The church being feminized with a majority of ministers now being women changed the role of the minister from being an authority to a "social worker" to some extent and involvement in practical helping the needy stuff is popular, whereas Ministers focusing on theology, sermons etc. tends to be considered aloof. It all moves the church to the left in some sense.

2) Denmark has very low church attendance, but a lot more people praying regularly. Outside of Copenhagen most people remain church members and being a so-called "four wheel Christian" is common (that is someone who only comes in church at their christening, confirmation, wedding and burial), but those people generally have an attachment to cultural Christianity, sing hymns at Christmas, pray if they are in a crisis etc. and a lot of their ethical positions and worldview are influenced by Christianity. Grundtvig said "I am Christian because I am Danish" - and while it isn't so simple anymore most rural folks and provincials would still take it for granted that they are culturally Christian, even if they couldn't explain exactly what that meant. This is more so in Jutland than on the islands. Then there are of course a segment that is very offended by the entire idea of cultural Christianity and insists "only 10% of Danes are actually Christians" etc. using a narrow faith and knowledge based + active involvement definition. This would go for both a lot of leftists and "business Liberals" in LA or the Liberal right wing.

Copenhagen is more post-Christian, but even among Copenhageners a large part would recognize themselves as culturally Christian or "Lutheran atheists" like Ingemann's friend, plus a lot of Copenhageners are "immigrants" from the province.

Denmark has a complex mix of being highly secularized, very anti-"holier than thou" attitudes and fundamentalism, but having a strong attachment to an idea of a (national) Christian based culture among "common people" unaffected by academic cultural radicalism, the far left tradition or the extreme materialism/hedonism of many neo-liberals/urban right wingers. There is a definite shyness about religion and spirituality in Denmark, that makes it hard to measure and a lot of unspoken, taken for granted beliefs.

[politicus]

Ingemann brings up a lot of good points

Being a bit self congratulating

[politicus]

Former, hippie, horse trainer for spaghetti-Westerns and sheep consultant to Muammar Gadaffi Ibrahim Sverrir Agnarsson is no longer Chairman of the biggest Muslim association in Iceland Félag Muslima á Íslandi since he has been ousted by his predecessor and arch rival Palestinian restaurateur Salmann Tamimi. In a post on Facebook Agnarsson has accused the new chairman of wanting to guide the congregation in a less liberal direction regarding women and homosexuals.

Félag Muslima á Íslandi is the country's largest Muslim congregation. It has existed since 1997 and is thus considerably older than the upstart and more fundamentalist Menningarsetur Muslima á Íslandi, which was founded in 2009 and has 389 members.

Félag Muslima á Íslandi got a plot of Sogamýri in Reykjavík for the building of a mosque in 2013. The aim is that construction will begin in the spring. Now, however, it seems as if the whole process is in danger as Salmann Tamimi has rejected receiving a grant from Saudi Arabia calling it "a fascist state", while Agnarsson kept the door open for contributions of all who do not make it a condition to gain influence over the congregation focus.

Agnarsson has argued that it isn't Muslim women's duty to go with a veil and has also been accused of being too friendly towards homosexuals. He also supported Icelandic women in the congregation who wanted to remove the “cage” that women for the last ten years has got to be in during prayer due to lack of proper separation.

"I considered it right to go back to the order in Medina during the Prophet and the first four Caliphs days so that they could be the same place as men. This was not appreciated by the old grunts who sent out their ladies to protest against such indecency. This was the culture of fascism against healthy Islam untainted by machismo."

So it seems one of the last convert dominated congregations in Europe are being taken over by ethnic minorities, but the conflict goes beyond theology and relations to the Saudis (with the "liberal" converts ironically being less anti-Saudi) because Agnarson supports establishing separate Muslim schools, whereas Tamimi thinks this will harm integration. It is also disputable whether Agnarson is as gay friendly as he pretends, he has waffled a lot on this.

[politicus]

His lacking leadership abilities might put into question his role as the heir apparent in the DPP. Not that Thulelsen Dahl is likely to leave anytime soon.

He has no such status.

[politicus]

Anyway, a bit lol that DPP have gotten their hands in the Euro-cookie jar and are fiddling with receipts, since they have campaigned so much against wasteful spending and abuse of funds.

[politicus]

His lacking leadership abilities might put into question his role as the heir apparent in the DPP. Not that Thulelsen Dahl is likely to leave anytime soon.

He has no such status.

Well, he is the man behind the DPP's biggest victory ever, perhaps the most well-known and popular DPPer after Thulelsen Dahl and Kjærsgaard, he is a member of the DPP 4-man coordination committee, and he is such a charismatic speaker and influential figure that he often represents DPP in debates that has nothing to do with the EU at all.
I have a hard time seeing who else could be called the heir apparent in the DPP right now. I know that it could easily be ten years or more before Thulelsen Dahl resigns so other faces could easily emerge until then, but if you ask DPP members now who they imagine as leader after Thulelsen Dahl, I would think that a large majority would say Messerschmidt.

DPP is not run by its members and an heir would be appointed by the inner circle: Thulesen-Dahl, Søren Espersen, Peter Skaarup and chief of press Søren Søndergaard after consulting with Pia Kjærsgaard (who would probably still have the final word). Those people would never leave the party in the hands of someone like Messerschmidt, who in addition to the personal deficiencies Ingemann mentioned, is also too right wing and too prone to flirt with "extreme" positions, which would jeopardize the mainstreaming project (such as climate skepticism and a soft spot for Putin).

[politicus]

One more Danish pol has dropped out of her party today. Former MP Trine Pertou Mach has left SPP, which she classifies as "too right wing" and still "in the shadow of SD on value politics".

Pertou Mach was considered the only realistic left wing challenger to Pia Olsen Dyhr in the leadership election after Vilhelmsen, but chose to abstain due to "personal reasons".

[politicus]

His lacking leadership abilities might put into question his role as the heir apparent in the DPP. Not that Thulelsen Dahl is likely to leave anytime soon.

He has no such status.

Well, he is the man behind the DPP's biggest victory ever, perhaps the most well-known and popular DPPer after Thulelsen Dahl and Kjærsgaard, he is a member of the DPP 4-man coordination committee, and he is such a charismatic speaker and influential figure that he often represents DPP in debates that has nothing to do with the EU at all.
I have a hard time seeing who else could be called the heir apparent in the DPP right now. I know that it could easily be ten years or more before Thulelsen Dahl resigns so other faces could easily emerge until then, but if you ask DPP members now who they imagine as leader after Thulelsen Dahl, I would think that a large majority would say Messerschmidt.

DPP is not run by its members and an heir would be appointed by the inner circle: Thulesen-Dahl, Søren Espersen, Peter Skaarup and chief of press Søren Søndergaard after consulting with Pia Kjærsgaard (who would probably still have the final word). Those people would never leave the party in the hands of someone like Messerschmidt, who in addition to the personal deficiencies Ingemann mentioned, is also too right wing and too prone to flirt with "extreme" positions, which would jeopardize the mainstreaming project (such as climate skepticism and a soft spot for Putin).

Messerschmidt has made strides to become more mainstream in the party. He has changed from atheist and very right wing on economics to a classic DPP Christian Social Democrat.
As I have written already, there will probably not be a leadership election in the party any time soon and all kind of new faces could emerge, but the standard DPP members seem him as the logical heir right now.
You can run for leader with the support of 25 delegates, which Messerschmidt will probably always be able to get without a problem. He normally doesn't underestimate himself, so unless he was sure that he couldn't beat whichever candidate parts of the establishment would run with, then I couldn't see him backing down in such a situation.

While Messerschmidt is capable of playing the role as "Social Conservative" (what you call a "Christian Social Democrat") and a moderate I doubt he would be trusted as such by the people that matter.

Its a very top down party. A replacement for Thulesen-Dahl would be picked by the inner circle and presented as "the heir" I don't see a membership rebellion against this - the foot soldiers in DPP are used to obeying their leaders. If Messerschmidt tried to rebel he would be crushed + most of the former Social Democrats would distrust him as leader (even if they love him as EU-basher) and they make up a big chunk of the membership.

[politicus]

To illustrate what kind of a party DPP is here are some points from an article in Danish conservative daily Berlingske in January:

- All new members are being checked by the party elite, before being approved. All previous criticism of the party is ground for refusal (as is any criticism of Israel).

- Despite advocating unlimited freedom of speech no member is allowed to criticize the party and the party leadership in public. All criticism must be kept behind closed doors.

- Kristian Thulesen Dahl's right hand, parliamentary group chairman Peter Skaarup, get lists of all new members for review and appoint people to be examined more closely by organizational consultant, Steen Thomsen and party secretary Poul Lindholm - known as “the membership police”.

- If you want to run for office a new screening process starts. You need to fill in an extensive form with name, picture, criminal record, which private interests you have, why you have chosen to go into politics, which letters to the media you have written over the years, how many annual conventions you have been to, and not least which of the party's many internal courses you have participated in. All this to ascertain the person's loyalty to the leadership.

- Then you will be invited for an interview with the party's election committee including Peter Skaarup, Søren Espersen, Carl Christian Ebbesen and Steen Thomsen. If doing well in the interview, you can join the so-called 'candidate database' of authorized persons from which local constituencies can choose candidates from.

- Control of the members is manifested also when they want to communicate on social media. The rank and file are warned against putting “ill-considered comments” on Facebook or twitter.

- Members have received warnings or are excluded solely because of their appearance on social media.

- The five member Executive Committee may expel members without having to justify this in any way.

As a former municipal councillor and Deputy Mayor puts it:
 “All the people who make up the party leadership or board of directors are in practice approved by the Executive Committee first. People have simply been told that the Executive Committee thinks it is a bad idea, if you run. I experienced this myself”

- If any internal disagreement or trouble happens in a local DF-association, the leadership interferes. Either Steen Thomsen or Poul Lindholm - or 'Poul Blood' as he is called internally - are inserted as a “conductor” at the meetings of local associations to ensure that everything goes as the leadership wants.

- The control of the hinterland is also reflected in a number of dictating e-mails from the leadership and the party's press chief Søren Søndergaard. Like orders not to comment on certain issues in the media - typically anything related to immigration or Islam.

Political scientists Lars Bille is quote for saying that the level of internal control in DPP is unheard of among Danish parties, but “what comes closest is probably the Danish Communist Party in its heyday and SPP in the beginning (the early 60s)”

Not the sort of party where a successful membership revolt is likely to occur… Even one started by a rebellious member of the leadership. I just don't  see it happening.

[politicus]

After being ahead in the national polls for five months the Pirates are now also ahead in a Reykjavik municipal elections poll from Gallup, which is bad news for SDA because their strength in Reykjavik municipal politics is their last bastion and Mayor Dagur B. Eggertsson seen as a "saviour" by many (even if he was a flop as deputy leader back in the day). The Pirates only have one councillor in Reykjavik, anonymous Halldór Auðar Svansson, but are still gaining.

Pirates 27.5% (+21.6)
SDA 24.7 (-7.2)
IP 23.4 (-2.3)
Left Greens 11.0 (+2.7)
Bright Future 8.1 (-7.5)
PP 4.4 (-6.3)

There are currently 15 seats, but it will be increased to at least 23 next time. A 23 seat council would give:

Pirates: 7
SDA: 6
IP: 5
LG: 2
BF: 2
PP: 1

Reykjavik currently has a broad SDA, LG, BF, Pirates coalition, but if SDA (or IP) drops any further the three others could govern without them - which might be tempting as Reykjavik BF is fairly leftist and they could do more "activism" on human rights issues. Although the Pirates would need to come up with a qualified candidate for Mayor in this scenario. LG is very close to a third seat.

[politicus]

Rikke Karlsson is the niece of DPP Deputy Chairman Søren Espersen. So not an outsider. An interesting twist.

[politicus]

Very interesting discussion Will Karlsson stay in ECR?

Yes.

And Messerschmidt is furious because she is "sitting on his votes" (which is entirely correct).

[politicus]

There is also the aspect that it is bit strange why DPP is still a member of MELD. All the remaining member parties are very small and parties with no current MEPs, while the Finns Party and Lega Nord have left MELD.

Apart from DPP MELD currently includes:

REKOS from Austrian, the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria, the former Vlaams Belang leader Frank Vanhecke, the French MPF (de Villiers), LAOS, the Polish SP and the Slovak National Party.

So basically all loser parties, which makes you think that there is some economic advantage to this with better possibility of milking/manipulating the system without too much control, because politically it doesn't make sense for a well-established and strong party like DPP to "hang around" those losers.

[politicus]

Despite Danish parties getting government funding there is a strong tradition for seeing them solely as private associations entitled to organize themselves whichever way they want. The prevailing view is that disgruntled party members can just form a new party if the old one is too repressive. I don't see that changing. The idea of government regulation of how parties organize (apart from demanding proper accounts and audits etc.) is alien to Danish political culture.

[politicus]

Besides, do we even want these parties to allow crazy grass-rots take over their party. I'm not sure how that would actually be beneficial to anyone.

At least for DPP more party democracy would not just open up the conflict between ethno-nationalists (+ a few soft racialists) and assimilationists, but also the cleavage between former Social Democrats and economic right wingers on welfare and taxes. The party would likely develop actual factions over this. There are also a couple of additional issues:

- Isolationism vs. military activism: Originally DPP only wanted to use the military for defending Danish territory, not stationed in far-away lands to help foreigners. Many average members are still skeptical about any "activist" foreign policy. Even when justified as fighting terrorism.

- Climate: The outright climate skeptics would become vocal, while some (mainly female, I think) would want a less anti-Green line. Their animal rights advocacy has attracted some soft Greenies and their female social- and healthcare workers segment is not anti-green.

- The official lip service to Christian values, and especially the influence of the "black priests" and tolerance of homophobia would collide with many of their "church-alienated" and very secular members, this seems to be one of the things young DPPs are actually irritated of about the party (at least in Copenhagen).

- Israel/Zionism. Important to some of the leading families because of their resistance movement roots and essential to Deputy Chairman Søren Espersen because of his Jewish marriage, but the former Social Democrats seems often to have sympathy for the Palestinians. DPP have actively tried to block anyone who ever wrote negatively about Israel to become member, but it might still pop-up.

So it wouldn't just be crazy activists trying to hijack the party, other cleavages would open up as well. It has attracted a high number of "I would be on the left if it wasn't for foreigners and crime"-types and has some frustrated right wingers who thinks it has become much too Social Democratic. They would start fighting and might toss in some non-immigration related value issues.

[politicus]

The "Unit for Political Structures and Financing" under the European Parliament's Financial General Directorate will now investigate whether the funds given to MELD and FELD have been used for "non-designated purposes".

DPP MEP Jørn Dohrman has supported Karlsson's critique of the lack of info about the funds. Dohrman is the nephew of Helge Dohrman, who was Pia Kjærgaard's trusted ally under the factional battles in the Progress Party back in the day, so part of "the families", like Karlsson. The fourth MEP Anders Vistisen supports Messerschmidt 100%.

[politicus]

True to their consensus tradition the Faroese Union Party has settled on just one candidate for both chairman and deputy chairman despite their deep internal cleavages. So the election at the party convention on Saturday will be a formality.

Current deputy chairman Bárður á Steig Nielsen will be the new leader. He is an economic neoliberal and generally seen as a traditionalist (= cultural conservative and unionist). His deputy will be the economist Magni Laxafoss, who so far is the only MP that has declared he will vote in favor of gay marriage. Laxafoss is an economic right-winger, but a Social Liberal.

They both support an auction based fishing quota system - like the current centre-left/libertarian coalition. So there will be a shift in the party's position on this central area. A new fishing quota system will be impossible to revert if UP and the government agrees on a compromise.