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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
Iceland, but not Norway   -18 (12.9%)
Norway, but not Iceland   -11 (7.9%)
Both   -34 (24.3%)
None of them   -77 (55%)
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Total Voters: 140

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 132637 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #75 on: April 27, 2013, 06:14:03 am »

As politicus said above it can seem a bit redundant with two mainstream centre-right parties, at least after the Liberal Alliance emerged in 2008/2009 as the low-tax alternative. However, it should still be very possible for them to score 7-9 % of the votes, but the party has made a couple of mistakes which has so far sent them down to historically low figures around 3-5 %.
First of all, they seemed to panic too much about the emergence of the Liberal Alliance and instead of emphasizing other parts of their program, they went into a duel with LA about who wanted to lower taxes and cut public expenditure the most. A battle that they could never win as the Conservatives were part of the government and had been for several years, while the Liberal Alliance was free and had little restrictions on them.
Secondly, the party has created doubt about its right-wing credentials on the law and order and immigration policies. The current leadership and group of MPs have been called the most left-wing in the history of the party, and is dominated by social conservatives who have quite some reluctance in cooperating with the Danish People's Party. Party leader Lars Barfoed is probably also personally quite angry at them, as they withdrew support to him in 2006, which meant he had to resign as Minister of Consumer Protection and Family Affairs. One example of how this has cost them was the deal they made in the 2011 election with the Radikale Venstre (Social Liberal Party) that  the parties should cooperate more, and that any future government should base their policies on broad cooperation across the middle. A deal heavily criticized by the DPP and claims were maid that the two parties, Conservatives and Social Liberals, were starting to look alike. For voters who preferred a continuation of the 2001-2011 policies this was the clear proof that the Conservatives were moving away from right-wing views, so instead the chose to vote for the DPP and especially Venstre (the Liberals).

It's questionable whether Barfoed can rebuild the right-wing credentials, that he himself played a big role in destroying. They could be saved by personal scandals or very unpopular moves from Venstre, but otherwise I think they have to change their leader and move the party back towards the right. Maybe Brian Mikkelsen, a Minister throughout the 2001-2011 years, or the young Rasmus Jarlov, who is the party leader in the Copenhagen city council and will join the Folketing when/if the former Foreign Minister Per Stig Møller, perhaps the most prominent social conservative in the group, retires.
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politicus
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« Reply #76 on: April 27, 2013, 06:55:38 am »

Social Conservative means something completely different to Americans, so lets just call them centrists ;-)

Parties don't necessarily live forever and I don't think you can assume that the Danish Conservatives will survive in the long run. Their crisis is due to more than just a few policy-mistakes and mishaps, its a structural problem in the sense that there isn't any real need for the party anymore. They will hang in there for a decade or possibly two and then disappear into the dustbin of history.

Even assuming they have a chance (and they do in the short run) I don't agree that moving to the right is necessarily the best thing to do. Those positions are already taken by others, to quote myself (bad habit): "their problem is that they have nowhere to go". Building on an image as the more sophisticated, urban, cultured centre-right alternative to crude neo-liberalism might be their best chance.
  
Historically there has always been two wings in the party: a centrist, welfare-conservative and a low tax, tough on law and order right wing. What kept the party together was the defence-issue and patriotism, but this issue isnt polarized in Danish politics anymore so it doesn't really work as a unifier. One of the reasons the party has done badly is the countless feuds between those two wings throughout the party history, so moving to the right would likely trigger yet another "civil war" and I doubt they can survive that. The right wing may be displeased with certain policies at the momemt, but at least they are not in open rebellion as long as the party is low tax, pro-business and tough on law and order.

Most Conservative voters (and potential voters) are not anti-immigration, so I especially doubt it would help them to move to the right on this one. Most of their voters where quite dissatisfied when they had to accept DPP-type immigration and refugee policies during the AFR and Løkke governments. So I think the party is better of being the voice of "bourgeois decency", as its traditionally called, on this subject as well as others.

Like the German FDP in the old days they have the strategic problem whether to be on the right or left of their big brother, with a wing representing each view. FDP chose to be to the right of CDU, but it has given them some problems and they lost certain groups. But the major problem in this is that Liberal Alliance is basically the Danish FDP while DPP has the reactionarians, national conservatives and the "hang them high"-crowd. Its not really a viable position IMO.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2013, 07:54:31 am by politicus »Logged

HansOslo
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« Reply #77 on: April 27, 2013, 09:05:11 am »

Perhaps the best thing simply would be for the party to simply merge with the Liberals? I can understand why they exist, in a historical context, as the culturally urban alternative to the Liberals. But now that the Liberals (as I understand) is just as much as a urban party, and caters to a lot of the same voters, it just doesn’t make any sense to have a 4 -5% party like the Danish Conservatives. I am not familiar enough with Danish politics, but isn’t the Liberals enough of a big tent party to absorb the Conservatives?
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Diouf
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« Reply #78 on: April 27, 2013, 09:13:06 am »

Social Conservative means something completely different to Americans, so lets just call them centrists ;-)

Parties don't necessarily live forever and I don't think you can assume that the Danish Conservatives will survive in the long run. Their crisis is due to more than just a few policy-mistakes and mishaps, its a structural problem in the sense that there isn't any real need for the party anymore. They will hang in there for a decade or possibly two and then disappear into the dustbin of history.

Even assuming they have a chance (and they do in the short run) I don't agree that moving to the right is necessarily the best thing to do. Those positions are already taken by others, to quote myself (bad habit): "their problem is that they have nowhere to go". Building on an image as the more sophisticated, urban, cultured centre-right alternative to crude neo-liberalism might be their best chance.
  
Historically there has always been two wings in the party: a centrist, welfare-conservative and a low tax, tough on law and order right wing. What kept the party together was the defence-issue and patriotism, but this issue isnt polarized in Danish politics anymore so it doesn't really work as a unifier. One of the reasons the party has done badly is the countless feuds between those two wings throughout the party history, so moving to the right would likely trigger yet another "civil war" and I doubt they can survive that. The right wing may be displeased with certain policies at the momemt, but at least they are not in open rebellion as long as the party is low tax, pro-business and tough on law and order.

Most Conservative voters (and potential voters) are not anti-immigration, so I especially doubt it would help them to move to the right on this one. Most of their voters where quite dissatisfied when they had to accept DPP-type immigration and refugee policies during the AFR and Løkke governments. So I think the party is better of being the voice of "bourgeois decency", as its traditionally called, on this subject as well as others.

Like the German FDP in the old days they have the strategic problem whether to be on the right or left of their big brother, with a wing representing each view. FDP chose to be to the right of CDU, but it has given them some problems and they lost certain groups. But the major problem in this is that Liberal Alliance is basically the Danish FDP while DPP has the reactionarians, national conservatives and the "hang them high"-crowd. Its not really a viable position IMO.

I don't neccessarily assume that they will survive in the long run, but I do think that retreating to the position they had before Barfoed became leader will give them a better chance of survival in the short and the long run.

The problem with the left-turn they made is that I think it will be very difficult to convince "the sophisticated, urban and cultural elite" away from the centre-left parties, mainly Radikale Venstre. And the young globalized business elite will remain in the Liberal Alliance.

I think the party was reasonably united under Bendt Bendtsen, who was probably slightly right-leaning. Lene Espersen was clearly a member of the right wing, but until the holiday scandal the party remained quite stable. Her leadership triggered Pia Christsmas-Møller to leave, but she had been marginalized for years anyway. And neither Christmas-Møller nor Seeberg's resignations seemed to hurt the party. Those voters advocating "bourgeois decency" to a large extent already left in the beginning of the cooperation with DPP. And althought, it might be difficult to keep the 10-11 % with Liberal Alliance around, they could arguably have stabilized themselves around 7-8 %.

With regards to position, it seems that Barfoed has placed the Conservatives to the right for Venstre on economic issues and to the left for them on law and order and immigration. Their position  actually seems clearer now that under Bendt Bendtsen, but this has arguably caused some of the defections.
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politicus
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« Reply #79 on: April 27, 2013, 09:24:56 am »

Perhaps the best thing simply would be for the party to simply merge with the Liberals? I can understand why they exist, in a historical context, as the culturally urban alternative to the Liberals. But now that the Liberals (as I understand) is just as much as a urban party, and caters to a lot of the same voters, it just doesn’t make any sense to have a 4 -5% party like the Danish Conservatives. I am not familiar enough with Danish politics, but isn’t the Liberals enough of a big tent party to absorb the Conservatives?

The Liberals is a big tent, catch all party, but the problem is that the Liberals is a much bigger party, about three times as big, so the Conservative party culture would drown in the Liberal sea and given the very different party cultures Conservatives would see this as a loss of identity. Party culture and identity is often more important than policies.
Basically this idea has been dead ever since Eriksen proposed it in 1965.
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politicus
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« Reply #80 on: April 27, 2013, 09:32:59 am »

Diouf: I basically disagree that the Conservatives have turned left under Barfoed. They courted the Social Liberals during the campaign, sure, but their policy positions are not more left leaning than they were under Bendtsen, they are just a little clearer.


The current leadership and group of MPs have been called the most left-wing in the history of the party, and is dominated by social conservatives who have quite some reluctance in cooperating with the Danish People's Party.


By whom?
« Last Edit: April 27, 2013, 09:40:31 am by politicus »Logged

Diouf
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« Reply #81 on: April 27, 2013, 10:00:01 am »

Diouf: I basically disagree that the Conservatives have turned left under Barfoed. They courted the Social Liberals during the campaign, sure, but their policy positions are not more left leaning than they were under Bendtsen, they are just a little clearer.

But the deal with the Social Liberals was not just about courting them and the broad cooperation idea. Immigration was clearly stated as an area where the Conservatives wanted to make agreements wil the Social Liberals which inevitably means a left turn. Barfoed said about the deal: "I easily think we can get into step in the future in relation to integration and the labour market, and to secure humanism and brotherliness in what we do".
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politicus
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« Reply #82 on: April 27, 2013, 11:27:11 am »

Diouf: I basically disagree that the Conservatives have turned left under Barfoed. They courted the Social Liberals during the campaign, sure, but their policy positions are not more left leaning than they were under Bendtsen, they are just a little clearer.

But the deal with the Social Liberals was not just about courting them and the broad cooperation idea. Immigration was clearly stated as an area where the Conservatives wanted to make agreements wil the Social Liberals which inevitably means a left turn. Barfoed said about the deal: "I easily think we can get into step in the future in relation to integration and the labour market, and to secure humanism and brotherliness in what we do".

Sure, but this is just one area and immigration and integration is a field where most Conservatives have basically been dissatisfied with the ultra tough Liberal-DPP approach the whole time, especially considering the refugee policy. During VK they had to back the governments tough stance, and when it was pretty clear that the VK-government was doomed Barfoed changed the tune. But they still defend the 24 year rule and the core of the VK-immigration policy.

This is more about creating an edge to the Liberals, than about a left wing turn in general. Barfoed has been pretty Conservative Classic IMO with a touch of "bourgeois decency" (borgerlig anstændighed) regarding immigrants, refugees and civil rights.
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« Reply #83 on: April 27, 2013, 11:33:49 am »

Perhaps the best thing simply would be for the party to simply merge with the Liberals? I can understand why they exist, in a historical context, as the culturally urban alternative to the Liberals. But now that the Liberals (as I understand) is just as much as a urban party, and caters to a lot of the same voters, it just doesn’t make any sense to have a 4 -5% party like the Danish Conservatives. I am not familiar enough with Danish politics, but isn’t the Liberals enough of a big tent party to absorb the Conservatives?

The Liberals is a big tent, catch all party, but the problem is that the Liberals is a much bigger party, about three times as big, so the Conservative party culture would drown in the Liberal sea and given the very different party cultures Conservatives would see this as a loss of identity. Party culture and identity is often more important than policies.
Basically this idea has been dead ever since Eriksen proposed it in 1965.

Is there any chance that the Liberal tent could rip and the Conservatives weave one of the tatters into their own tapestry?
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politicus
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« Reply #84 on: April 27, 2013, 11:59:48 am »

No, the Danish Liberals descends from the peasant movement and they still have the movement culture with a strong internal coherence despite incorporating both social liberals, and classical liberals, and having a wide range of professions among its supporters: academics, businessmen, craftsmen, workers and farmers. Their leaders used to be called chieftains and its still a party that is very loyal to its leadership.

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« Reply #85 on: April 28, 2013, 04:31:27 am »

Are there any Danish polls which display party support by demographic group (eg age, education etc) ?
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politicus
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« Reply #86 on: April 28, 2013, 10:59:57 am »

Are there any Danish polls which display party support by demographic group (eg age, education etc) ?

Not often, gender is the most commonly used background variable. Diouf and Jens are probably the best people to PM for references to places you might find those data.

This article (in Danish) gives the basics about who votes what, but its from 2011 and SD and SPP have lost a lot of support since then. Still its a starting point and perhaps you can read it with google translate.

http://www.cvap.polsci.ku.dk/valgkamp/presse/Social_baggrund_afg_r_igen_partivalg_-_CVAP_i_Berlingske.pdf/
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Diouf
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« Reply #87 on: April 29, 2013, 07:01:29 am »

Are there any Danish polls which display party support by demographic group (eg age, education etc) ?

There are two Danish articles here on age and workers.

http://www.altinget.dk/artikel/de-unge-flygter-fra-s

The tables in the bottom should be relatively easy to understand.
The first three tables deal with party choice of different age groups at the 2011 election, in April/June 2012 polls and October/December 2012 polls respectively. The last three tables are even more specific and shows party choice in relation to both gender and age; Mænd (men) and Kvinder (Women).

These tables shows some very significant, although not very surprising, figures. The Liberal Alliance was the second biggest party among young men with 15.3 % at the 2011 election. The Danish People's Party received 17.7 % among people above 65, and 19.9 % of men above 65. The Social Liberals (16.2 %) and the Red-Green Alliance (12.1 %) both fared markedly better among young women than among voters in general.

http://www.altinget.dk/artikel/arbejderne-flygter-fra-socialdemokratiet

There are two tables in the bottom of the article. The first one shows the party choice among the population as a whole at the 2011 election, October/December 2011 polls, January/March 2012. The second one shows the party choice of the workers, both skilled and unskilled.
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Lasitten
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« Reply #88 on: April 30, 2013, 12:07:17 pm »

The Center Party has raised as the number one party in the gallups from it's collapse in and after the elections 2011. Seems that the new leader was a good choice.



What's interesting is also that the National Coalition Party lost is number one position which is have kept almost continuous  from 2007. The mid-term examination of the cabinet program also seems to be heave burden for the parties in the cabinet, especially for the social democrats who seem to came down a lot.

The gallup in english.

The Left Alliance has a nice grown especially because of the fact that the leader of the party was  the one to demand for the re-evaluation of dividend taxation.
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« Reply #89 on: April 30, 2013, 12:40:03 pm »

I presume the Liberals are among the 1,1% for Others. That's pretty bad for the heirs to the good old Liberal Peoples Party. Why so low? 
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Lasitten
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« Reply #90 on: April 30, 2013, 01:03:31 pm »

I presume the Liberals are among the 1,1% for Others. That's pretty bad for the heirs to the good old Liberal Peoples Party. Why so low? 

The has been no strong tradition of really strong liberal party in Finland. The Finnish Liberal party was effectively killed when it lost its sole MP in the elections in 1995. After that has been only minor parties which haven't been able to get people elected. The newest try is this "The National Progressive Party" which doesn't seem be able to secure the needed 5 000 names. That's really funny because even the Communist Workers' Party – For Peace and Socialism was able to re-enter the party register it was dropped, because it was unable to secure any MPs in two elections.

The liberals in the Finnish political parties are traditionally concentrated in the National Coalition Party and in the Green.
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politicus
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« Reply #91 on: April 30, 2013, 01:13:12 pm »

I presume the Liberals are among the 1,1% for Others. That's pretty bad for the heirs to the good old Liberal Peoples Party. Why so low? 

The has been son strong tradition of really strong liberal party in Finland. The Finnish Liberal party was effectively killed when it lost its sole MP in the elections in 1995. After that has been only minor parties which haven't been able to get people elected. The newest try is this "The National Progressive Party" which doesn't seem be able to secure the needed 5 000 names. That's really funny because even the Communist Workers' Party – For Peace and Socialism was able to re-enter the party register it was dropped, because it was unable to secure any MPs in two elections.

The liberals in the Finnish political parties are traditionally concentrated in the National Coalition Party and in the Green.

Okay, I didnt know LPP lost representation that early. They renamed the party to the Liberals in 2000, and I thought this party still existed. Is it dissolved now?
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Lasitten
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« Reply #92 on: April 30, 2013, 01:22:05 pm »

I presume the Liberals are among the 1,1% for Others. That's pretty bad for the heirs to the good old Liberal Peoples Party. Why so low? 

The has been son strong tradition of really strong liberal party in Finland. The Finnish Liberal party was effectively killed when it lost its sole MP in the elections in 1995. After that has been only minor parties which haven't been able to get people elected. The newest try is this "The National Progressive Party" which doesn't seem be able to secure the needed 5 000 names. That's really funny because even the Communist Workers' Party – For Peace and Socialism was able to re-enter the party register it was dropped, because it was unable to secure any MPs in two elections.

The liberals in the Finnish political parties are traditionally concentrated in the National Coalition Party and in the Green.

Okay, I didnt know LPP lost representation that early. They renamed the party to the Liberals in 2000, and I thought this party still existed. Is it dissolved now?

Yea, the Liberals as a political party were dropped from the party register in the 2007 and after this they're unable re-register their party. In the elections 2011 they had a deal with Pirate Party that the candidates would run in the list of Pirate Party. After the elections the Liberals changed itself to a political think tank and political organization and some of them started the National Progressive Party -project.  

You can understand the condition of Finnish "liberals" if they're not even able to get 5 000 names for their party...
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politicus
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« Reply #93 on: April 30, 2013, 01:26:30 pm »

I presume the Liberals are among the 1,1% for Others. That's pretty bad for the heirs to the good old Liberal Peoples Party. Why so low? 

The has been son strong tradition of really strong liberal party in Finland. The Finnish Liberal party was effectively killed when it lost its sole MP in the elections in 1995. After that has been only minor parties which haven't been able to get people elected. The newest try is this "The National Progressive Party" which doesn't seem be able to secure the needed 5 000 names. That's really funny because even the Communist Workers' Party – For Peace and Socialism was able to re-enter the party register it was dropped, because it was unable to secure any MPs in two elections.

The liberals in the Finnish political parties are traditionally concentrated in the National Coalition Party and in the Green.

Okay, I didnt know LPP lost representation that early. They renamed the party to the Liberals in 2000, and I thought this party still existed. Is it dissolved now?

Yea, the Liberals as a political party were dropped from the party register in the 2007 and after this they're unable re-register their party. In the elections 2011 they had a deal with Pirate Party that the candidates would run in the list of Pirate Party. After the elections the Liberals changed itself to a political think tank and political organization and some of them started the National Progressive Party -project.  

You can understand the condition of Finnish "liberals" if they're not even able to get 5 000 names for their party...

Yes, thats sounds truly miserable. Why the " " around the word liberals?
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« Reply #94 on: April 30, 2013, 01:32:38 pm »

Yes, thats sounds truly miserable. Why the " " around the word liberals?

Because in my eyes and as Ethelberth  pointed out most of these liberals who are not members of already existing parties are more libertarians than old-school liberals like the Liberal Peoples Party.
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« Reply #95 on: April 30, 2013, 01:39:29 pm »

The Left Alliance has a nice grown especially because of the fact that the leader of the party was  the one to demand for the re-evaluation of dividend taxation.

What sort of system does Finland have in place regarding taxation of dividends, and what do the Left Alliance propose?

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politicus
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« Reply #96 on: April 30, 2013, 02:01:35 pm »

Yes, thats sounds truly miserable. Why the " " around the word liberals?

Because in my eyes and as Ethelberth  pointed out most of these liberals who are not members of already existing parties are more libertarians than old-school liberals like the Liberal Peoples Party.

Okay, I thought thats probably what you meant, but wasnt quite sure.

So basically the Finnish party system (minus the Swedes in SPP) is almost equal to the Danish party system just without Liberalism as a defining factor for the parties (we have no less than three liberal parties!) and therefore no equivalent of Liberal Alliance.

Left Alliance = Red-Green Alliance + SPP left wing
SD = SD + SPP "workerite" right wing
Greens = Social Liberals + SPP green wing
Christian Democrats = Christian Democrats
Center = Liberal "rural" or traditional wing  
NCP = Conservatives + Liberal "urban" or modern wing
True Finns = DPP
Libertarian fringe groups = Liberal Alliance (currently polling at 5%)
« Last Edit: April 30, 2013, 02:03:34 pm by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #97 on: April 30, 2013, 02:26:06 pm »

Historically, centre party had something common with RV (smallholders) and Conservatives with V (bigger farms).  Leftwing union has had also strong workerite wing, and still controls some labour unions.

Yes, but I was thinking about the current system. The "workerite" wing in SPP are right wingers who are almost indistinguishable from SDs and wouldn't fit in the Left Alliance.
Red-Green Alliance also has supporters in the union movement and several of their MPs are union representatives so thats comparable to the Left Alliance.

RV has long since lost its smallholder roots and is today a party for urban upper middle class "progressives" concerned with the environment and humanitarian issues but also liberal on economic policies, so I think its pretty close to the Finnish Greens.

"Traditional" Venstre is the more moderate mainly small town/rural wing of the party and I think that must be pretty close to the Finnish Center Party, but of course Venstre is an odd party that is difficult to compare to other party systems.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2013, 02:51:36 pm by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #98 on: May 01, 2013, 12:31:57 pm »

Wou, from the Guardian

Quote
Thorning-Schmidt became a target of both booing and a water pistol during a May Day parade in her country, where some believe that she has been leaning too far to the right to uphold the goals of her leftist Social Democratic Party.

Boos and whistles from protesters forced Thorning-Schmidt to abort her speech to thousands at the gathering in Aarhus, some 200 kilometers (125 miles) northwest of Copenhagen.

Then, as she was walking to her car, a man squirted water on her with a water pistol. Police spokesman Carsten Dahl said police had detained the 23-year-old man, but the premier was not injured.

A video about it and a best picture:
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« Reply #99 on: May 01, 2013, 12:43:08 pm »

Wou, from the Guardian

Quote
Thorning-Schmidt became a target of both booing and a water pistol during a May Day parade in her country, where some believe that she has been leaning too far to the right to uphold the goals of her leftist Social Democratic Party.

Boos and whistles from protesters forced Thorning-Schmidt to abort her speech to thousands at the gathering in Aarhus, some 200 kilometers (125 miles) northwest of Copenhagen.

Then, as she was walking to her car, a man squirted water on her with a water pistol. Police spokesman Carsten Dahl said police had detained the 23-year-old man, but the premier was not injured.

A video about it and a best picture:


Yeah, she didn't have the guts to speak in Fælledparken in Copenhagen where the SD leader normally speaks, but they boohed her in Jutland as well. Still I think it would have been much worse in Copenhagen. Demonstrators spoiled most of the prominent SDs speeches in the big cities and SPP leader Annette Vilhelmsen simply had to cut her speech short because of the yelling. Some protesters executed a Corydon-doll (our minister of finance) in front of parliament. People are angry, that's for sure.
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