The Great Nordic Thread

[ingemann]

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http://www.thelocal.dk/20160526/aarhus-city-blocks-plans-for-grand-mosque

[ingemann]

Not that it will probably make a big difference to their voters...

I think there's good chance they will gain new voters on this.

[ingemann]

http://www.thelocal.dk/20160608/supreme-court-strips-terrorist-of-danish-citizenship

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[ingemann]

http://cphpost.dk/news/government-unveils-new-2025-economic-strategy.html

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[/quote]

It's not meantioned in the article but they plan to fund it partly by raising the pension age in 2025, cutting the education support grants (while raising the amount students can loan interest free, until they finish their education or drop out).

[ingemann]

Thanks for your updates, Diouf. You mentioned student subsidies. How are they currently organized in Denmark?

Student in high school and tertiary education (any education leading) get subsidies if they're above 18.

Between 18-19 the students get a lower subsidies.

Between 18-19 if the amount of money you get depend on the parents income.

While above 20 they get a higher one.

If they live at home they get a lower one.

Beside that they can borrow money from the state at low interest, while they study.

If they earn more than (around) 12000$ a year, the amount of subsidies they can receive are lowered.

[ingemann]

Haha, based on your wording I see you've read Kitschelt and/or De Lange too... Anyway, a highly interesting development. The way I see it, the real impediment to such a coalition is that the Social Democrats and DF are perhaps too much moving toward each other electorally. They want to win over each other's white working-class and lower middle class voters, but, in doing so, they will inevitably lose voters who do not reside in the "sweet spot": SD lose economic left-wingers who are more progressive on the "new dimension" whereas DF lose economic right-wingers. And a big majority of Danish voters do not reside in the sweet spot, even if a plurality do. I especially get the impression that DF do not really understand that a lot of their voters are no economic left-wingers. So the problem for an SD-DF coalition is as follows: if these two parties lose too many seats (or do not win enough), a continuation of the current "deadlock" in bloc politics seems more likely.

However, it is true that the Danish environment seems open to such a coalition, especially in a context in which the blocs are becoming increasingly less relevant. The New Right could support an SD-DF coalition when it comes to DF's pet peeves, whereas SF and perhaps V will be willing to help out the coalition on an occasional basis when it comes to its economic policies. After all, V cooperated with other center-left governments too. In conclusion, I would say an SD-DF coalition is a real possibility because the ideological gap between both parties is becoming progressively smaller. However, they need to have the real desire to cooperate and actively break down "bloc politics" and it needs to be a logical option after the election (which means they cannot lose many voters), which requires DF to tread lightly in moving to the left economically (without pissing off white working-class voters and enlarging the ideological gap with SD).

That said, it could be that I look at this in an overly "polsci" way. Differences in party culture and rhetoric outside the realm of policy matter and are a factor that could make or break the willingness of both parties to cooperate. But I get the impression that both parties are warming up to each other to such a degree that if it does not happen after the next election, it may definitely happen afterwards.

When dealing with Danish politics, it's pretty important to focus on that every country are different, as you said. So while I get your analyse I think it lack some aspects.

DPP are not Wilders parties, they're not tool of a individual. It rose as phoenix out the ashes of the Progress Party, which had elements of that. So the party have traditional been run clique of political allies, who trust and respect each others. This mean that the party are not just some provocateur's tool to create chaos in the existing system. DPP want to be a staying power in Danish politics, they want to be mainstream, have power and most of all they want respect, and SocDem are the party they want that respect from the most.

Next Christiansborg are a pretty small place, there's only a 179 members and most especially the ones who matters have known each others for decades. As such personal relationships are important. Dahl can really not stand the PM, he dislike him both political and personal, and Løkke's negotiation tactics really don't work anymore, it worked until they all found out how much of a used car dealer he is. Dahl and Frederiksen on the other hand like each other and are pretty similar on a personal level both in how they work, but also in how they are. This mean that they work toward a more trusting relationship.

Danish immigration politics are also different than most places, because most of the hardliner parties, mean what they say. They think that "Third World immigration" (the polite way to say Muslims) are problematic for the Danish state, to large extent because they have statistics to prove it. This also mean that parties like SPP are not bleeding hearts and you find hardliners in all parties outside the Social Liberals and the Alternative, even in Unity List. But moreso pretty much every voter which are left in SocDem to some extent accept this premise (including a lot of Muslim who vote for the party), the few voters they will lose with it, will go to other parties on red side, likely SPP which are pretty much SocDem light including on immigration.

DPP on the other hand may lose voters, but they're losing them anyway because of Messerschmidt (corruption are pretty much one of the tow death sins in Danish politics), and their voters are likely to accept cooperation with SocDem, because they also like her better than Løkke, and if they see DPP move toward SocDem as a way to keep the Social Liberal away from power they will support it.   

[ingemann]

Honestly while I get that because of internal politics in Venstre Esben Lunde can't be removed from his other post, especially because of how much trouble he would make. I still think Lars Løkke should take those consequence and get rid of the idiot. Because this will not be last time he will create problems for the government.  Of course as a supporter of the opposition I'm more than happy that he keep him, especially because Lunde is a too big a idiot to get away with whatyever horrible idiocy he plans next, I fear minister like Ole Birk Olsen more, as he's competent enough to be harmful.

[ingemann]

What is Messerschmidt up to? Always liked him.

After a leave of absense after having being discovered with his hand in the sweet EU cookie jar, he has slowly begun to return back into public, with him writing opinion pierce and being in radio and TV. DPP still treat him as persona no grata until they find out whether OLAF want him to end up before the courts. If he end up before the courts, he will likely be finished in Danish politics. But on the other hand scum like him (and that has nothing to do with his politics) have a tendency to float above water, so he may survive even that.

[ingemann]

First of all I want to congratulate the Conservatives. Next it's pretty impressive that less than two month after the Lars løkke Rasmussen last changed the government another minister leave the government.

Brian Mikkelsen are clearly leaving the sinking ship, because he see little chance for continue as minister after the election and have little wish to to spend the next few years as a common MP.

While he's well known as a good negotiator, he's also the man who have behind many of the internal conflict in the Conservative party. He's a loss as a negotiator, especially as the Conservative lack experienced negotiators, but as a internal troublemaker getting rid of him is a plus. I also suspect that the Conservative will find a new minister outside parliament, which may create some trouble with Naser khader.

[ingemann]

Agreement on Ghetto Plan. Red Bloc hold on to (narrowish) polling lead

All the bills in the government's Ghetto Plan have now been agreed upon. Some of the measures: 1-year olds in ghetto areas must go to a nursery for at least 25 hours a week. If children in ghetto areas do not pass a Danish test at the end of their first year of school, their advancement to the next grade will be postponed by a year. Parents will lose their child benefit for three months if their child is absent without reason for 15% or more of its classes. The share of children from ghetto areas in the yearly intake must not be higher than 30% for any nursery/kindergarten. Ghetto areas must make plans for how to reduce the share of council flats to 40% in 2030, to which they will then get financial support. Persons, who have been unemployed within the last six months, should not be offered housing in ghetto areas. Convicted criminals can be refused a council flat in these areas. Community boards shall communicate in Danish and follow democratic guidelines.

Most of these deals were made with DPP and the Social Democrats, but the Social Liberals and SPP voted for some of the less controversial ones.

Very informative NY Times article on the new Ghetto Plan (and the bias isn't even as bad as NYT normally is in articles about Europe,). Although they did manage to find one of probably 3 Social Democrat rebel MPs in this area; would perhaps have been more enlightening with one of the many, who are clearly and eloquently in favour, but Lykkeberg sort of makes their argument at the end.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/europe/denmark-immigrant-ghettos.html

They also overestimate the number of Muslims by 200.000 in Denmark, which is pretty massive overestimation in a country with 5,8 million people.

https://www.religion.dk/religionsanalysen/hvor-mange-indvandrer-lever-i-danmark

[ingemann]

So Riskaer Pedersen will probably mostly attract Liberal/RV/LA voters?

I think the most likely voters for Riskjær are the anti-establishment voters. So yes some voters who voted LA the last time likely will vote for him this time. But those voters would likely vote NB instead. So I think the most likely loser on him running will be NB and Alternative (but to lesser extent than the former)

Given that the government still hasn't called an election, would it be in late April at the earliest now? Or perhaps together with the EP elections?

The PM have call election 21 days before thhe election. In theory he could call it with a closer date, but that's purely theory and the courts would likely intervene if he tried that.

Personally I expect him to wait to the last possible date, so he can get the last pay check.

[ingemann]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53959492

Protesters against the burning of a Koran by far-right supporters in Sweden have clashed with police during several hours of rioting.

Cars were set on fire and shop fronts were damaged in the clashes in the southern city of Malmö which have now been brought under control. There were several arrests.

Earlier in the day, the Swedish Government had banned Danish Politician Rasmus Paludan, head of the Stram Kurs (Hard Line) political Party from entering the country. He had planned to attend the Koran burning.

Interesting fact Rasmus Paludan have a Swedish father, so Swedish police have administrative banned a man with a right to Swedish citizenship if he so wish from entering Sweden.

[ingemann]

Don't see a general Denmark thread, but seems like this mini-scandal about Frederickson deleting text messages related to the mink slaughtering investigation is getting more serious? Ministry of State refuses to answer questions the commission investigating this.

Danish posters, how serious is this actually?

It’s potential serious. If the Social Liberal wanted a excuse to change from left to right this would be a perfect excuse to let the government fall. But they would be massacred in the election which would follow. The good point for the government in this is that outside the Social Democrats themselves there’re zero sympathy for fur industry on the left, so it would be hard for Unity List and the Social Liberals to explain to their voters why they let the government fall over this.

The main problem is that there’re nobody between the PM and this scandal. So there’re nobody who can be sacrificed.

But in the end I suspect this scandal will cool down after the municipality election especially if the Social Democrats end up doing well.

[ingemann]

Don't see a general Denmark thread, but seems like this mini-scandal about Frederickson deleting text messages related to the mink slaughtering investigation is getting more serious? Ministry of State refuses to answer questions the commission investigating this.

Danish posters, how serious is this actually?

It’s potential serious. If the Social Liberal wanted a excuse to change from left to right this would be a perfect excuse to let the government fall. But they would be massacred in the election which would follow. The good point for the government in this is that outside the Social Democrats themselves there’re zero sympathy for fur industry on the left, so it would be hard for Unity List and the Social Liberals to explain to their voters why they let the government fall over this.

The main problem is that there’re nobody between the PM and this scandal. So there’re nobody who can be sacrificed.

But in the end I suspect this scandal will cool down after the municipality election especially if the Social Democrats end up doing well.

Interesting. Let's say Frederiksen gets the knife; does this necessitate some big government shake-up, or is there someone from S who could step in immediately and be confirmed ala Schallenberg/potentially Andersson? If so, who would that be? Just the deputy PM?

This is where it get a little complex, it’s important to understand that the whole deputy PM doesn’t really exist, it’s fundamental a made up title by the social liberals when they were in government in the 90ties and their leader had a important ministry but with little prestige, so they needed to put on some air and made up the title and the media adopted it instead of ridicule it, so usual it indicates nothing except the guy or gal being called it are the second most important person in the government … but in this case Nicolai Wammen who get called this would be the most likely person to take over. He’s competent and well liked both in the party, among the other parties, in the civil service and in the general population, he’s not a perfect PM as he is too technocratic, but if Frederiksen was run down by a car tomorrow there’s no doubt he would take over as PM.

Whether he change any other ministers depend on himself, I suspect that he would mostly keep the same ministers around but a few would change ministeries. But after a short period he would likely put a new minister team together before the election.

[ingemann]

How deeply emebedded is anti-immigration stances among the grassroot of the Social Democrats in Denmark ? Is it primarily just a party leader thing or is it something the grassroots members also belive ?

It’s again complex, while a lot of party member is a lot more soft on the issue than the MPs and electorate, the issue is a lot less important to the party members than it is to the general electorate (general hawks) and to the media (universal doves). Even the doves in the party cares a lot more about all the other things this government have delivered, and no matter how much a dove a individual Social Democrat is, they’re all enjoy seeing the Social Liberals losing influence. There’s also the element that when the new course was laid, Tesfaye travel to  across the country and talk with the members, he interviewed both doves and hawks and wrote a book about the the history of the party’s history on the issue. Both doves and hawk felt they were listen to and both sides likes Tesfaye (who is very much a hawk). The party also  made sure to put the issue into a Social Democratic ideological context, which also weakened any internal opposition and made the issue a lot more edible not only for the doves in the party but also for the socialist left outside the party.

So even if the doves takes over, they will likely become hawks, in fact Mette Frederiksen the PM was original very much a dove and was still seen as something of a dove when she was elected leader of the party.

The big irony is that the media see the doves/hawks as the big internal fault line in the party, while the real internal fault line is really more economic in nature between people who prefer to make deals with the center-right or with the left.