Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 23, 2017, 03:43:06 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash, Come grasp the mighty avatar of our admin)
| | |-+  The Great Nordic Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 Print
Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
Iceland, but not Norway   -17 (13.6%)
Norway, but not Iceland   -10 (8%)
Both   -32 (25.6%)
None of them   -66 (52.8%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 125

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 121105 times)
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8101
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: 1.65


View Profile
« Reply #975 on: June 19, 2017, 08:34:05 am »
Ignore

The defectors have now been officially expelled from the Finns Party. After thinking about their name for a while, the defectors have decided that "New Alternative" is not that good of a name after all: they have founded a new party called "Blue Reform" in English (though the Finnish name, "Sininen tulevaisuus" literally means "Blue Future"). They now have to gather 5,000 signatures in order to become a registered party. I do not predict a bright future for them.
Named it after their balls because their wives had somebody else.
Logged

"If our country says no, it means no. No in referendums on the European Union. No in discussions on immigration. No to ever-increasing bureaucracy. Alas. (...) All of the Netherlands can say #metoo, considering what the party cartel has inflicted upon us all."
- Thierry Baudet (FFvD)

"Say I don't gotta dance, I make money move."
- Cardi B
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28658


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P

View Profile
« Reply #976 on: June 19, 2017, 09:09:18 am »
Ignore

You alt-right fascists really can't stay classy can you?

If recent political history repeats itself I guess the more deplorable faction of the True Finns will be more successful. Though it's pretty funny that anyone would think Finland is having some mass influx of immigrants.
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #977 on: June 24, 2017, 12:58:32 pm »
Ignore

Polling average half way through the term according to Ritzau:

Social Democrats. 26.7% 48 seats.
Social Liberals. 5.9% 10
SPP.  4.8% 9
Red-Green Alliance 8.9% 16
Alternative 5.5% 10
Red Bloc combined: 51.8% 93

Conservatives 3.9% 7
New Right 1.5% 0
Liberal Alliance 6.1% 10
DPP 18.4% 33
Liberals 17.9% 32
Blue Bloc combined: 47.8% 82

All Red Bloc parties have made small gains, which means that they are in a relatively clear lead. In the Blue Bloc, the Conservatives are slightly up, but their momentum stalled after a property tax deal that ended up quite far away from their wishes. The New Right are hovering a bit below the 2% threshold, which reflects some marked differences between different pollsters. The DPP, Liberals and the Liberal Alliance are all a few points down on their 2015 result. The DPP have rebounded since their EU expenses scandal, and are now again above the Liberals in the average. However, the OLAF investigation of their dealings have not yet been finalized, so a very negative conclusion and a potential court case could re-open their wounds.

Currently, most of the focus is on a case regarding Immigration Minister Inger Støjberg. In early 2016, she decided to remove all 16 and 17-year old wifes from their husbands in Danish asylum centres. Until then, all cases in these age groups had been considered individually, but her decision meant that even married couples on 17 and 19 years were split. Støjberg believed the administration had been somewhat lenient, and, crucially, again wanted to appear tough on migration and please the DPP by a symbolic change concerning very few people. The decision was illegal, which is proved beyond doubt, and the practice was changed after 6 months. The question is whether she deliberatedly acted illegally i.e. how much had civil servants warned her? The DPP supports her, which means she can stay in her post and no investigative commission can be started. However, this could be started once the majority changes, and Støjberg could face a sentence if proven to have deliberately acted against the law. Erik Ninn-Hansen was sentenced to a conditional 4-month sentence in the so-called Tamil Case, which ended up bringing down the government in 1993.

Tax reform and a new defence deal are some of the main issues expected on the agenda in the second half of 2017. The tax reform will likely be another round of humilation for the two small government parties, especially the Liberal Alliance, who will clearly not manage to get the top tax rate reduced, their raison d'être. There seems to be a quite clear majority in parliament for increasing the defence budget, but some parties, the Conservatives in particular, want huge increases.

In November, there will be local and regional elections in the whole country, which will probably reflect the above shifts in the polling since the last elections in 2013. The Social Democrats and DPP will probably try to once again show their strong relationsship by forming majorities in more places. I suspect they would like a few high-profile deals where they go together to oust a right-wing mayor. This would make it even more likely for DPP to get their first mayor, and could mean that the Liberals would have a even harder time holding on to their mayor posts.
Logged

Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #978 on: June 26, 2017, 02:17:52 pm »
Ignore


In November, there will be local and regional elections in the whole country, which will probably reflect the above shifts in the polling since the last elections in 2013.

It is very very early to look at polls regarding the local elections, and the official campaign does not start until October, but the below Copenhagen poll by Gallup for Berlingske still sets the scene for a quite interesting battle in Copenhagen.



Once the real campaign starts, I expect the Social Democrats to benefit from the Mayor-effect and a more expensive campaign, but it must be quite chilling for them to just be on par with the Red-Green Alliance. Even if the Red-Green Alliance becomes the biggest party, I still think it will end up with a Social Democrat Mayor. However, if the four "Green" parties gets a majority, it will likely mean that many new projects in Copenhagen would be set on hold or scaled down, e.g. a highway tunnel to CPH Airport and new big buildings on Amager, while there will be an even bigger move to promote cyclism ahead of cars, perhaps more roads closed for cars. Similarly, we will probably see a less tough policy and rhetoric on romas, migrants etc.
Logged

Lasitten
Full Member
***
Posts: 112
Finland


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #979 on: July 20, 2017, 03:07:57 am »
Ignore

First YLE (public broadcaster) poll after the split of the True Finns. And they're going down.



PS = True Finns
UV = "New Alternative"

I think we're going to see people hopping back to the True Finns from New Alternative.
Logged

Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #980 on: July 20, 2017, 06:54:44 am »
Ignore

It's pretty clear to most people that New Alternative/Blue Reform is nothing but a vehicle for the five ministers to hold onto their portfolios for another two years. After that Soini will most likely retire, so the new party's support, or lack of it, is not a major point of concern for him. The backbencher MPs who went along with Soini will be regretting their decision. Yet it will be hard for most of them to come back after the bitter statements they gave in June.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 06:56:26 am by Helsinkian »Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4610
United States


View Profile
« Reply #981 on: July 20, 2017, 07:30:34 am »
Ignore

Just learned that former Finnish PM Matti Vanhanen is apparently the son of race scientist Tatu Vanhanen. Is that true? Why don't people talk about this? What did people in Finland think?
Logged

Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #982 on: July 20, 2017, 07:34:16 am »
Ignore

Just learned that former Finnish PM Matti Vanhanen is apparently the son of race scientist Tatu Vanhanen. Is that true? Why don't people talk about this? What did people in Finland think?

It is true. It was discussed in the papers during his premiership.
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4610
United States


View Profile
« Reply #983 on: July 20, 2017, 07:35:27 am »
Ignore

Did he have to distance himself from his father's views or did he just avoid commenting on it?
Logged

Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #984 on: July 20, 2017, 07:40:16 am »
Ignore

In 2004:

Quote from: YLE
While adhering to his previous policy of not publicly engaging his father in public debate, Prime Minister Vanhanen emphasised his categorical opposition to xenophobia and racism, saying that they have no place in Finnish society.

“My own view has been very liberal in questions related to foreigners.”

Matti Vanhanen also said that Finland must be made attractive for those who come here from abroad.
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-5160989
Logged
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #985 on: August 04, 2017, 11:29:32 am »
Ignore

The Finns Party are going to nominate MP Laura Huhtasaari as their candidate for the presidential election in January. Like Halla-aho, Huhtasaari is known as a critic of immigration and the EU. Unlike Halla-aho, she is also known as a religious conservative (in the past she has, for example, denied the theory of evolution).

The following people are also certain candidates:

Sauli Niinistö, incumbent President; running as an independent, though he is supported by the National Coalition Party
Pekka Haavisto, MP, for the Greens; he was the second-round opposition to Niinistö in 2012
Matti Vanhanen, former Prime Minister, for the Centre Party
Merja Kyllönen, MEP, for the Left Alliance
Nils Torvalds, MEP, for the Swedish People's Party; the father of Linus Torvalds

The SDP is holding a primary between three candidates, none of whom are particularly charismatic. In 2012 they ran a former Prime Minister, yet finished below 7%, and it's been hard for them to find a candidate now. The Christian Democrats are yet to nominate a candidate.

Paavo Väyrynen, longtime Centre Party politician who has run for President thrice, is gathering 20,000 signatures to run as an independent candidate, having become disappointed with the Centre Party.

Blue Reform/New Alternative, the group that broke from the Finns Party, would also need to gather 20,000 signatures in order to run a candidate. It's unclear if they'll attempt that.

Since Niinistö chose to run as an independent, he also needs the 20,000 signatures, but no-one doubts him getting those.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 11:42:19 am by Helsinkian »Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #986 on: August 07, 2017, 11:08:05 am »
Ignore

Something fishy in the state of Denmark



The political season in Denmark starts with another clash between DPP and the government. The DPP has lost confidence in the Minister of the Environment and Food Esben Lunde Larsen over his handling of fishing quotas. It emerged that Lunde Larsen had done his utmost to avoid putting into effect the December 2016 agreement on quotas, which would give more quotas to small and enviromently-friendly fishermen. The agreement was made by the Socialdemocrats, the DPP, the SPP and the Social Liberals without the government because the parties could not agree with the Minister.

The DPP might not care that much about green policies, but they like to talk as the protectors of the little man, which probably made them agree to this deal. Crucially the DPP's spokesperson on fisheries Ib Poulsen (in the picture) is a small fisherman, who has invested himself heavily in this case. The Liberals, on the other hand, have close ties to the big fishermen (and farmers) and their organizations. Both on a personal level where rich fishermen have made donations to Løkke's charities and one own a business with a Liberal MP, but also because they (and those who sympathize with them) make out a significant part of the party's base, especially in the rural and coastal parts of Jutland. The exact areas which Løkke has focused on winning back after a terrible 2015 result in many such areas. This has not only been visible in less restrictive rules for farmers and fishermen, but also in the massive move-out of state jobs from Copenhagen to other areas as well as liberalized building regulations in coastal areas.

Fishing quotas in Denmark have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few very succesful fishermen, partly due to them being more effective and partly because they have circumvented quota concentration rules by having their spouses, children and other relatives registrered as quota owners. This means that the fishing industry is now dominated by huge boats with many qoutas. And while employment in the industry has been relatively stable in recent years, they have been concentrated in ever fewer harbours, which are booming and/or heavily expanding (e.g. Thyborøn and Skagen) while many others are looking desolated or only host hobby fishermen.

While Lunde Larsen has had his responsibilities for fisheries removed, the DPP agreed to let him remain as a Minister with lesser responsibilities. Løkke has been very eager to keep Lunde in his post since he is very popular in the party's base in Western Jutland, and has become the symbol of a Liberal party somewhat returning to its farming roots. Also the DPP might not want to damage its relationsship to the Liberals too much. The fisheries portfolio has been taken over by Karen Ellemann, who now holds the unique title as Minister of Fisheries, Equality and Nordic cooperation.
Logged

ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2809


View Profile
« Reply #987 on: August 08, 2017, 03:30:23 pm »
Ignore

Honestly while I get that because of internal politics in Venstre Esben Lunde can't be removed from his other post, especially because of how much trouble he would make. I still think Lars Løkke should take those consequence and get rid of the idiot. Because this will not be last time he will create problems for the government.  Of course as a supporter of the opposition I'm more than happy that he keep him, especially because Lunde is a too big a idiot to get away with whatyever horrible idiocy he plans next, I fear minister like Ole Birk Olsen more, as he's competent enough to be harmful.
Logged
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #988 on: August 17, 2017, 05:30:11 am »
Ignore

Finland's Greens become the second largest party for the first time in polling history:



Meanwhile Sweden's Green Party wawers on the brink of the electoral threshold.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2017, 06:32:40 am by Helsinkian »Logged
Çråbçæk
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13175
Kiribati


View Profile
« Reply #989 on: August 17, 2017, 11:46:16 am »
Ignore

Finnish Greens are relatively centrist economically, right?
Logged

Personally, I think he should only get one testicle removed (moderate hero)
Such a solution would certainly be completely unacceptable for me. However, for the sake of moderate herosim, I might very well be willing to keep my scrotum. Smiley Indeed, does that sound fair? Smiley
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #990 on: August 17, 2017, 11:51:05 am »
Ignore

Finnish Greens are relatively centrist economically, right?

True, certainly compared with the Greens of some other countries. They have co-operated with the bourgeois parties in the past. My mother was an NCP supporter in her youth but started to support the Greens in her older age; she would have never supported the Left Alliance but she could vote for the Greens.

Culturally they are, nevertheless, pretty much SJWs.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2017, 11:53:01 am by Helsinkian »Logged
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #991 on: August 19, 2017, 07:36:22 am »
Ignore

Finland's Christian Democrats will not run their own candidate in the presidential election, but will rather support Niinistö.
Logged
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #992 on: August 30, 2017, 08:18:59 am »
Ignore

Compared to its population, Finland ranks high in the list of countries from where ISIS's foreign fighters originate. Whereas most countries prosecute returning ISIS fighters, and some strip them of citizenship, Finland does no such thing. Most of the returning ISIS fighters will be allowed to return to the society with no repercussions, since simply being a member of ISIS is not considered a crime if there is no hard evidence of crimes committed. Some of them are even treated as if they were victims and are given therapy.

But the insanity doesn't stop there. Ministry of the Interior is now considering a proposal which would give affirmative action in social services to returning ISIS fighters, giving them preferential treatment in the allocation of public housing. The theory goes that this would prevent their radicalization in Finland. (Source in Finnish) The morons are, of course, ignoring the fact that such people are already radicalized.

A few years ago an MP of the Social Democrats even suggested that returning injured fighters from Syria should be given the same benefits as Finnish soldiers who have been injured while serving as UN peacekeepers. (Source in Finnish)
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 08:29:50 am by Helsinkian »Logged
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Finland
View Profile
« Reply #993 on: September 07, 2017, 03:13:02 am »
Ignore

Finland poll: Greens continue strong, Finns Party getting some traction, Blue Reform (defectors from the Finns Party) still not getting support:

Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #994 on: September 16, 2017, 04:53:46 am »
Ignore

Few Social Democrats want another dance with the Social Liberals

Despite the Social Liberals being the preferred government partner for Social Democrats throughout Danish parliamentary history, the parties now seem further apart than ever. This is reflected among the Social Democrat voters, where only a small share want another government with the Social Liberals. A Norstat poll for Altinget show that only 12% of the Social Democrat voters prefer this scenario. The most preferred scenario is a S-SF government (28%), while the most realistic scenario, a S government, is preferred by 22%. A S-DF government is also preferred by 22%, while 16% don't know. It could have been fun to have the "Große Koalition" option with V included as well, although it remains a very unlikely option.
Logged

Çråbçæk
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13175
Kiribati


View Profile
« Reply #995 on: September 16, 2017, 06:21:11 am »
Ignore

Could an S-SF government include Alternative as well, or are they seen as too dippy?
Logged

Personally, I think he should only get one testicle removed (moderate hero)
Such a solution would certainly be completely unacceptable for me. However, for the sake of moderate herosim, I might very well be willing to keep my scrotum. Smiley Indeed, does that sound fair? Smiley
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #996 on: September 16, 2017, 11:15:21 am »
Ignore

Could an S-SF government include Alternative as well, or are they seen as too dippy?

No, that's not really an option. With all their ideas about transparency and party democracy, the Social Democrats will not even consider them. It will likely make the whole governing process slow and cumbersome, and with a lot of focus on the internal difficulties. Also, they are politically quite a bit further away from the Social Democrats. The Alternative often votes together with the Red-Green Alliance, even if they approach politics from different perspectives. Economically they want radical reforms, shorter work weeks, citizen wages, way more green taxes etc, and on immigration, they are probably even more left-wing than the Social Liberals.

SF, on the other hand, has turned into what one commentator calls hjælpesocialister/helper socialists. They focus much more on changes to the status quo with more welfare spending, greener policies etc, than thinking of brand new great visions like the Alternative. They have moved rightwards on immigration rhetric, although if they actually vote for tough immigration policies, they will still break in two parts (again). And after their catastrophic government exit in 2014, there is no reason to think the Social Democrats want to give them another chance of government participation. So the Social Democrats alone in the government is by far the most likely outcome if there is a red bloc majority.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 11:20:36 am by Diouf »Logged

Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #997 on: September 21, 2017, 01:35:04 pm »
Ignore

Blue Bloc parties agree reduction of car and bridge taxes, will introduce road tax for foreigners




As the first step in the negotiations about a tax reform, the Blue Bloc parties today agreed on a traffic package which lowers car taxes, lowers the Great Belt Bridge toll, expands the motorway across Funen and introduces a road tax for foreigners driving in Denmark.

The Government, pushed by Liberal Alliance in particular, originally proposed a very significant car tax decrease on all cars. The car tax has been lowered twice during this government, so that it's currently 105% for a car's value up to 106 000 DKK, and 150% above it. The government proposed a flat 100% tax, which would obviously lower the taxes more on the bigger, most expensive cars. So like most other parts of the government's tax reform, the biggest advantages would be for the highest earners. This has been the dominating narrative, aided by the fact that the wealthy Conservative Minister for Commerce, Business and Growth, Brian Mikkelsen, in an interview about another part of the tax reform said that it would be good if you wanted to buy a Lamborghini.
DPP therefore obviously needed big changes to the proposal before they could reach an agreement. The final agreement means that taxes will now be 85% on a car's value up to 185 000 DKK, while the top car tax remains at 150%. Additionally, climate impact and security levels will affect taxes more than currently. This generally means that the price of micro cars and cars with poor fuel economy increase a bit, while a middle class family car will have its price reduced by around 10% (see the list with examples at the end). The government's proposal was expected to cost around 800 mio DKK (107 mio euro) a year, while the final agreement is only expected to cost around 200 mio DKK (27 mio euro) a year. Thereby, the DPP have more "free money" to demand on welfare spending in budget negotiations or on tax reductions for low earners.

The Great Belt Bridge toll is reduced gradually and will be 25% lower (60 DKK/ 8 euro for normal cars) in a handful of years and the motorway across Funen will be expanded from two to three lanes all the way (currently only the case on half of it). Finally, the government was pushed by DPP to make a system to introduce road taxes for foreigners. The model will be based on the German system where everybody pay a fee, but car owners in Denmark are compensated fully. The fee is expected to be around 1000 kr (135 euro) a year, and the hope is that it will be ready in 2020. I believe there is some doubt about whether the German model is in line with EU regulation, so this could affect the Danish proposal a lot as well.

Logged

Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #998 on: September 25, 2017, 09:06:08 am »
Ignore

Poll of the local elections on 21 November by KANTAR Gallup for Berlingske While the elections are only two months away, the campaign has not started yet, so it is still a very limited number of persons who have tuned in on the election. Local lists will probably not face as steep a fall. The Liberals can hope that their decline will be somewhat mitigated by incumbency effects. They have 48 of 98 mayors, and with a quite good economic situation and immigration as less of a topic locally, many might want to re-elect their current mayor. However, even if the Liberals manages to do a bit better than 19%, they could very well still face a significant decline in the number of mayors. The last local elections were held at the height of unpoularity for the Thorning-government in 2013, while the Red Bloc currently leads in most polls. Additionally, there is the joker of the DPP-Social Democrats cooperation. Both parties have been quite obvious in signalling that the parties could cooperate more at the local levels, although it remains to been seen to what extent this will materialize. A recent Jyllands-Posten count showed that DPP had made or expected to make electoral coalitions (to count several parties votes together for the initial seat distribution) with Blue Bloc parties in 66 of 98 municipalities, while such coalitions had been made with Red Bloc parties in only 4 municipalities. 18 local DPP associations expected to run on their own, while 10 did not know. These electoral coalitions are no assurance of cooperation after the election, but they usually give a very good hint. 8 of 10 electoral coalitions normally hold after an election, when a mayor is to be elected. This picture can probably be explained by the fact that the DPP has been used to working with the Blue Bloc parties in many places, and because there is likely to be more local Social Democrats who remain fairly left-wing on immigration and does not agree with its party leadership that DPP is now palatable partners.

Logged

Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 903
Denmark
View Profile
« Reply #999 on: October 04, 2017, 03:17:32 pm »
Ignore

Government accept DPP's demand to remove productivity demands from health care



As a part of the ongoing negotiations regarding the 2018 budget and the tax reform, the VLAK government and DPP today agreed to remove the productivity demands from the health care sector in 2018 and make a new system to measure performance from 2019.

The five regions are in charge of the health care sector and funded exclusively through state block grants. Since 1999, each of them has had to show a productivity increase of 2% a year if they are to get the full amount of the block grant. Governments have liked this rule for obvious reasons, but especially in the last year or two, many health care employees have complained that there are few areas left inwhich to increase productivity. A campaign that DPP largely adopted and in recent weeks the Social Democrats changed their mind on this issue. Thereby there was a majority for removing these demands, which made the DPP's hand strong in negotiations with the government. The demand is now removed in 2018, and the parties will agree on a new system from 2019 in the coming months. This system will be less rigidly focused on productivity and focus more on a number of different measures of the quality of the health care

The fact that there are regional (and local) elections in the end of November probably made it a bit easier for the government to agree to this change now. The government has focused a lot on economy, taxes in recent months, and this give them a slightly softer profile. Health care make up around 90% of the regional expenses, so to the degree that voters think about the regional elections, health care obviously dominates. However, local elections usually dominate the campaign since there are more issues in play, as well as the possibility for municipalities to raise or lower taxes and fees.
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines