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  The Great Nordic Thread
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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1Iceland, but not Norway  
#2Norway, but not Iceland  
#3Both  
#4None of them  
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Total Voters: 153

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 152926 times)
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #100 on: May 01, 2013, 06:23:35 pm »

So Vilhelmsen hasn't taken the SPP to the left like she said she would, I take it?
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politicus
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« Reply #101 on: May 01, 2013, 06:35:01 pm »
« Edited: May 02, 2013, 06:54:22 am by politicus »

So Vilhelmsen hasn't taken the SPP to the left like she said she would, I take it?

Well, rhetorically she has and quite a few of the young so-called "workerite" right wingers have left the party for SD, but she has stayed in the government and is unable to influence its policy since SD and the Social Liberals don't care if SPP leaves. So it doesn't really matter what she says. SPP is approaching the threshold, so most observers think they will have to leave the government soon, but its probably too late for Vilhelmsen to regain her left wing credentials. She is seen as weak, indecisive and a light weight.
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Jens
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« Reply #102 on: May 02, 2013, 03:11:42 am »

I was in Fælledparken yesterday and witnessed anti-democratic hooligans attact women and children. They also tried to rip the red banners to pieces and threw things at the Lord Mayor of Copenhagen. 100 % assholes!
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politicus
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« Reply #103 on: May 08, 2013, 09:01:49 am »

New poll from YouGov with SD only 0,7% in front of the Red-Green Alliance, clearly within the margin of error. This is the closest the Red-Greens have been to overtaking SD.

Liberals and DPP have an outright majority. 60,1% for the right wing opposition and only 25,4% for the government.

SD 15,2%
Social Liberals 6,9%
Conservatives 4,5%
SPP 3,3%
Liberal Alliance 5,4%
Christian Democrats 0,4%
DPP 18,9%
Liberals 31,0%
Red-Green Alliance 14,5
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politicus
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« Reply #104 on: May 09, 2013, 04:47:46 pm »

I have been waiting for when the first new "genuine" SD party in Denmark would emerge. Now Allan Busk deputy leader of 3F (unskilled labourers union) in Aalborg (pop. 170.000) has launched a new, so far unnamed, SD party based on a network of Jutlandic union representatives. He got 2800+ votes at the last regional council election and is well known in the region, one of the SD left wings strongholds.

This is of course a challenge on a low level, but given the amount of anger among union representatives and SD left wingers combined with extremely bad polling this might trigger a snowball effect.

Busk says he "cant look his unemployed comrades in the eyes" and "doesn't have the patience to wait for Helle Thorning-Schmidt to be thrown out".
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politicus
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« Reply #105 on: May 26, 2013, 04:58:02 pm »
« Edited: May 27, 2013, 07:39:54 am by politicus »

First Icelandic poll since the election shows IP clearly in the lead and PP losing ground. Probably both right wing voters dissatisfied about SDG flirting with the leftists before forming the coalition and more centrist voters disappointed he went right after all. Perhaps also disappointment about the lack of clarity regarding debt reduction.
BF seems to be rewarded for being ready to enter a broad coalition and Pirates for being ready to support a PP minority government to keep IP out.
SDA isn't losing much despite all the internal bickering.

IP 28,4 (+1,7 since the election)
PP 19,9 (-4,5)
Left Greens 12,1 (+1,2)
SDA 11,7 (-1,2)
Bright Future 11,3 (+3,1)
Pirates 6,5 (+1,4)

Dawn 3,8 (+0,7)
Democracy Watch 1,6 (-0,9)
Right Greens 1,4 (-0,3)
Households Party 1,2 (-1,8)
Rainbow 0,8 (-0,3)
Sturla Jónsson 0,5 (+0,4)
Rural Party 0,5 (+0,3)
Peoples Front of Iceland 0,1 (-)
Humanists 0,0 (-0,1)




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« Reply #106 on: May 28, 2013, 03:40:29 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2013, 03:51:44 pm by Lurker »

The Progress Party (FrP) have just had their annual national convention. The party is of course trying to prepare for government, but they have been hit by some negative news in the past week (not that this will have much influence on the polls)

First of all, party leader Siv Jensen has launched a strong attack on The Norwegian Model.  She claims that it is not fit for our time, and should be replaced by a new model - called the Frp model, fittingly. Tongue She has been criticized for this, even by the other Bourgeois parties. Unfortunately, it seems that she has little idea what the concept of a "Norwegian model" actually entails.

Most interestingly though, is the debate in the party on climate change - which have not been as fierce as the ones on Atlas, unfortunately. The party leadership has partly come around on the issue, and has made statements to the effect that humans does have a significant effect on the climate. However, climate change denial is still by far the prevailing view of the base of the party, and also amongst their politicians. There was a very interesting survey that showed how elected politicians of the various parties viewed the concept of human-caused climate change: http://www.ba.no/nyheter/article6671225.ece
It turns out that 9/10 FrP officials reject the concept. SV has the highest agreement, with 96% thinkin that climate change is caused by humans.
Venstre: 87% agrees.
Høyre: 50% agrees.
Arbeiderpartiet: 72% agrees.
Krf: 73% agrees.
Senterpartiet: 69% agrees.

Very interesting, IMO. I wonder what the equivalent figures would be in the other Scandinavian/Nordic countries?
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politicus
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« Reply #107 on: May 28, 2013, 06:12:41 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2013, 06:25:33 pm by politicus »

Thats pretty low for Ap and very low for Høyre.

I dont have any polling, but I think those numbers would be higher for all similar parties in Denmark (apart from SV/SF, which would be similar). Questioning human causes is considered out of the mainstream here.

At the moment Villum Christensen MP from Liberal Alliance and Morten Messerschmidt MEP for DPP are the only national level politicians that are openly climate change deniers and I dont know any pols that are "only" human cause sceptics.

A few Liberal MPs are probably privately cc deniers, but its against party policy and DPP officially recognizes human causes, its part of their "respectability" line.
The most prominent Liberal cc denier was former Minister of Finance Thor Pedersen, but he is retired now.
I doubt any Conservative MPs are human cause sceptics.

The right wing argument here is more the Lomborg-argument, that it is too expensive and pointless to do anything and that the money could be used more wisely on other things.

I suppose the proces up to the Copenhagen summit and the fierce Lomborg debate can explain a lot of the difference. Perhaps also AFRs personal influence while PM.

I am sure the Icelandic SDA would also be higher than Ap, but the traditional Icelandic centre-right (ie the present government) could easily privately be similar to Norway. But both parties officially recognize human causes.
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« Reply #108 on: May 28, 2013, 06:36:45 pm »

I see now that my wording in the last post might have been unintentionally misleading: the survey was of elected local politicians of the various parties, not MPs and prominent "national" politicians. I suspect that a survey of national politicians would show a much higher belief in AGW. Both due to higher educational levels, and that a national politician who don't believe in climate change would be more hesitant to state his true beliefs in fear of the consequenses.
- amongst FrP's national politicians though, I suspect there would still be a clear denier/sceptic majority.

The local politicians views are very close to the views of the parties' respective voters, IMO - at least the numbers fit pretty well with what has been my impression of their "bases".
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« Reply #109 on: May 29, 2013, 04:20:51 am »

First of all, party leader Siv Jensen has launched a strong attack on The Norwegian Model.  She claims that it is not fit for our time, and should be replaced by a new model - called the Frp model, fittingly. Tongue She has been criticized for this, even by the other Bourgeois parties. Unfortunately, it seems that she has little idea what the concept of a "Norwegian model" actually entails.

To be honest, it is sort of an open question what the Norwegian (or Nordic) model actually entails.

As of now it seems like the debate mostly centers on which party that should be given credit for creating the Norwegian model.
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politicus
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« Reply #110 on: May 29, 2013, 05:34:03 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2013, 06:31:45 am by politicus »

Just to make sure I get this, how broad is the concept of the "Norwegian model"?

In Denmark we use "the Danish model" for the way our labour market is organized with employer and employee organizations negotiating agreements that are valid for everybody, a complicated labour market legal system with mediators and a labour court etc. + the government playing a small role.

Is the Norwegian model used in the same narrow way or is it about the entire way Norwegian society is organized?
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Lurker
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« Reply #111 on: May 29, 2013, 06:24:18 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2013, 06:27:33 am by Lurker »

Just to make sure I get this, how broad is the concept of the "Norwegian model"?

In Denmark we use "the Danish model" for the way our labour market is organized with employer and employee organizations negotiating agreements that are valid for everybody, a complicated labour market legal system with mediators and a labour court etc. + the government plaing a small role.

Is the Norwegian model used in the same narrow way or is it about the entire way Norwegian society is organized?

That description sounds very simillar to how "The Norwegian Model" (or "the Nordic model", for that matter) is used, though the term of course is open to interpretation, as these last days have shown. I think most people would agree that a universal welfare state, with a strong safety net, is a vital part of the "model".

You might enjoy this interview, where Jensen tries to explain what this debate is all about - Unfortunately, it is not exactly illuminating:
http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/valg-2013/artikkel.php?artid=10116928
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« Reply #112 on: May 29, 2013, 11:32:39 am »

Venstre's Lykke Friis has retired from politics and has returned to the University of Copenhagen as a pro-rector. She had the same position before she entered politics in November 2009 when she was named Minister of Climate and Energy. In the 2011 election she ran for the first time and got a brilliant result; she received 30.910 personal votes, the sixth-highest number of all. She was widely expected to become Minister of European Affairs, or perhaps even Foreign Affairs if Venstre regains power after the next election.

She says that she has always known that she was not going to be a lifetime-politician and that she looks forward to go back to the University.

A big loss for Venstre as she was one of the most popular politicians in Denmark
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politicus
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« Reply #113 on: May 29, 2013, 11:50:35 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2013, 03:19:57 pm by politicus »

Given that Søren Pind has made himself "unappointable" (dunno if that's a word, but it should be Wink ) and Venstre will be going solo next time I think it was pretty clear that she was destined to become Minister of Foreign Affairs in a Venstre government. Which leaves Løkke with a problem. Who do you think he will chose? I don't see Pind getting it - not a diplomatic bone in that guys bony bod.
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« Reply #114 on: May 29, 2013, 12:51:36 pm »

Given that Søren Pind has made himself "unappointable" (dunno if thats a word, but it should be Wink ) and Venstre will be going solo next time I think it was pretty clear that she was destined to become Minister of Foreign Affairs in a Venstre government. Which leaves Løkke with a problem. Who do you think he will chose? I dont see Pind getting it - not a diplomatic bone in that guys boney bod.

Well, I would still see Pind as the most likely Minister of Foreign Affairs, although he is indeed quite divisive, both in the party and in the population. His criticism of the US and its drone usage has certainly not made it easier for him to get that job. Lars Løkke does seem to rate him quite highly. It's a tough call, but there are no other clear candidates.
Michael Aastrup Jensen, Gitte Lillelund Bech and Eva Kjer Hansen have dealt quite a lot with foreign policy, but neither of them really seem high-profile enough for such a role. If you want to go with the old diplomat type, then perhaps Bertel Haarder could be a option. He has been a Minister of seven or eight different things, including European Affairs and a MEP, but he is not really popular and to some extent a loose cannon. Ellen Trane Nørby is quite talented, popular and well-known, but she is perhaps considered too green for the job. She could be a good guess as Minister of European Affairs.
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politicus
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« Reply #115 on: May 31, 2013, 04:42:28 pm »

Life is good in the Nordic countries according to OECD.

Four Nordic countries are in top 10 on OECD's new Better Life Index comparing 11 parameters on housing, income, jobs, education, environment, civic engagement, health, life satisfaction, safety and work/leisure balance. Both Sweden and Norway are in Top 4. Finland is 12th right after NZ. Its remarkably that Iceland despite the crisis is number 9. Also 5 Anglophone countries in Top 12.

* 1. Australia

* 2. Sweden

* 3. Canada

* 4. Norway

* 5. Switzerland

* 6. USA

* 7. Denmark

* 8. Holland

* 9. Iceland

* 10. UK

* 11. New Zealand

* 12. Finland
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Diouf
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« Reply #116 on: August 06, 2013, 05:00:55 pm »

A recent poll shows the strongest results for the Danish People's Party in several years in the polls made by Greens Analyseinstitut.

Social Democrats           17.2 %
Social Liberals                8.3 %
Conservatives                3.8 %
Socialist's People's Party  6.1 %
Liberal Alliance               6.8 %
Christian Democrats         0.7 %
Danish People's Party      17.9 %
Liberals                         28.1 %
Unity List/Red-Greens      10.9 %
Others                           0.2 %

SD + RV + SF + EL = 42.5 %
V + DF + K + LA = 56.6 %
V + DF = 46 %
V + LA + RV + KF = 47 %
V + DF + K = 49. 8 %


SF seems to have regained some of the voters it lost to the Unity List. Perhaps this is because the party finally had a success as the government,just before the summer holidays, decided to phase in the reform of unemployment benefits in a slower way. This also means that there has been little internal critcism in the last few months and the subject of unemployment benefits is not discussed intensely any more in the media as it had been for months before the decision. DF holds on to many dissatisfied Social Democrats and has perhaps attracted some liberals too after a heavy discussion in the media about the Liberal's policy of 0% growth in the public sector in the coming years.

In other news, it now seems safe to say that the Conservatives and Liberal Alliance have switched positions on immigration policy over the last year or three. Today the Conservative leader Lars Barfoed said that he would not support any tightening of immigrations laws that goes beyond the status at the election in 2011. The three other right-wing parties all disagreed with that statement. It's not suprising that V and DF disagree, but that LA does as well seems the final indication that they are now to the right of the Conservatives on this issue. Quite significant as Liberal Alliance was founded as the New Alliance which had a very liberal immigration policy and had a clear goal of keeping DF out of power. Even when many of the left-wing members had left the party and it was reshaped as Liberal Alliance, it kept a very liberal immigration policy and even voted for some of the current government's policies just after the election. However, they have moved significantly right on this subject and now demands a narrower definition of asylum so fewer seekers will be granted asylums and that is should be easier to expulse foreign criminals.
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« Reply #117 on: August 06, 2013, 08:25:13 pm »

Out of curiosity - are there still parties on the right calling for the re-introduction of Danish border controls? It definitely didn't help marketing Denmark as a tourism location in Germany....
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« Reply #118 on: August 07, 2013, 06:24:09 am »

The decline and imminent fall of Gucci Helle has been a truly depressing sight. Going 2 miss u bb.
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« Reply #119 on: August 07, 2013, 07:39:04 am »

Out of curiosity - are there still parties on the right calling for the re-introduction of Danish border controls? It definitely didn't help marketing Denmark as a tourism location in Germany....

With Sylt's existence there's really no point in visiting Denmark. 
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« Reply #120 on: August 07, 2013, 08:45:33 am »
« Edited: August 07, 2013, 08:57:45 am by Diouf »

Out of curiosity - are there still parties on the right calling for the re-introduction of Danish border controls? It definitely didn't help marketing Denmark as a tourism location in Germany....

The Danish People's Party, who pushed it through in 2011, is the only party who actively and continuously campaigns to re-introduce the border control. However, as the recent history will show this is not just a right-wing thing. Furthermore, because it is not debated that often it is difficult to say exactly what the different parties think right now.

In 2009 at the European Elections the Social Democrats called for a re-introduction of the old-style border controls as a temporary measure while a newer and better form of control was build-up. However, the party seemed quite divided on the issue and it was not clear whether the Christiansborg Social Democrats agreed. When DF put forward the proposal in the Danish Parliament later that year. it was only supported by them and the Unity List. The latter supported it because they believed it would help fight human trafficking and show the EU that Denmark had its sovereignty on this issue.

Then in 2011, the Liberal-Conservative government needed DF's support for reforms of the unemployment benefits and the early retirement scheme. DF, however, would only accept these if the government agreed to re-introduce border controls. In the end a deal was made with the ambiguous name "Permanent customs controls (a strengthening of border controls) and it included the building of a new building at the border with permanent manning which should control 1-4/1000 of the cars and a general rise in the number of customs officers. This meant that DF could happily brag about a permanent border control with barriers, while the government stated that there was no permanent border control and that it was simply more money to fight crime. The SD and SF at first supported the measures, but then changed their mind and even demanded that the vote should be in the full parliament, where VKO did not have a majority, instead of in the committee, where VKO did have a majority. Whether this change of opinion was due to the EU's reaction and Thorning-Schmidt's affinity to the EU, or a tactical measure to portrait the government as weak and stumbling around is hard to tell. The Unity List's reactions to the measure was shortly put that they liked the proposal, for the same reasons mentioned above, but did not like the proposers so the voted against it. In the end the Government managed to convince the two former Conservative independents to vote for the measure so it narrowly passed.
At the 2011 election the Social Liberals, who had always been against border controls, campaigned heavily against it and used it as a symbol of a tired and insular government/majority. After the election the new government + the Unity List and the Liberal Alliance repealed the measure. I think that the Liberals and especially the Conservatives will be quite reluctant to re-introduce the measures in light of the media storm last time.


It certainly did not make Denmark a popular destination amongst politicians and newspaper editors, but I'm no so sure about Germany as a whole. Online polls at the time in Die Welt and Bild Zeitung showed that 84 and 77 % respectively approved of the measure. There are of course caveats with those kind of polls, but it doesn't seem like it has played much of a role amongst tourists. When owners of holiday houses and centres are asked, they say that the biggest German worry is the Danish Dog Law as they are unsure about which dog races are forbidden and which offences that will lead to the killing of the dog.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #121 on: August 07, 2013, 11:03:17 am »

Out of curiosity - are there still parties on the right calling for the re-introduction of Danish border controls? It definitely didn't help marketing Denmark as a tourism location in Germany....

With Sylt's existence there's really no point in visiting Denmark. 

I prefer Amrum and St. Peter-Ording to Sylt, but anyway...
The Danish North Sea coast is much less crowded than the German one, the Kattegat beaches are quite nice, there is no German equivalent to Bornholm, and guess where LEGOLAND is.

It certainly did not make Denmark a popular destination amongst politicians and newspaper editors, but I'm no so sure about Germany as a whole. Online polls at the time in Die Welt and Bild Zeitung showed that 84 and 77 % respectively approved of the measure. There are of course caveats with those kind of polls, but it doesn't seem like it has played much of a role amongst tourists. When owners of holiday houses and centres are asked, they say that the biggest German worry is the Danish Dog Law as they are unsure about which dog races are forbidden and which offences that will lead to the killing of the dog.
There are of course the hard core holiday house & caravan camping German tourists that have been going to the same place in Denmark for the last 30 summers and will continue to do so, with or without border controls (as long as you make sure that they are not checked for the amount of beer they carry with them). But that demography will gradually die away.
In addition,  you have people wanting to explore a new region every year, some of which (like my family) have a rather European approach, while others have a strong Nordic focus. These people, especially the "Nordic" ones, are the interesting target group. Now, after the introduction of border controls, two of our acquaintances with Nordic focus  shifted their holiday plans away from Denmark, and went to Öland and Lithuania instead (ferries from Travemünde).

The issue here in Schleswig-Holstein is local pride (a concept that surely is not unknown to Denmark). As symbolic as the measure may have been, it came across as "You guys don't trust us that we can do the job well ourselves, and you don't want to do it together with us. If you want to be left alone, we leave you alone. There is other places we can go to."

Anyway, good to hear that most Danish parties will be reluctant to re-introduce the measure. However, if I understand the latest polling correctly, after the next elections it may be quite difficult to form a government without DF, so they may start a new 'blackmailing' attempt ..
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Diouf
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« Reply #122 on: August 07, 2013, 01:00:44 pm »


Anyway, good to hear that most Danish parties will be reluctant to re-introduce the measure. However, if I understand the latest polling correctly, after the next elections it may be quite difficult to form a government without DF, so they may start a new 'blackmailing' attempt ..

Well, right now it looks fairly certain that the next government will be a pure V-government if the right wing gets a majority. DF has made it quite clear that they do not want to participate in government after the next election; they often state that they don't want to end up as SF. Liberal Alliance is simply too extreme economically and wouldn't want to join either. The Conservatives are really trying to differentiate themselves from the other parties and probably realize that their last term in government was too long and didn't provide them with enough results. More than half of the Conservative parliamentary group are former ministers, but that might work both ways. They have tried government and doesn't need to go there again, or they have tried it and want to return. If another party is going to join the government it will be the Conservatives, but the chance is really low, I reckon.

The interesting part is the which kind of support the V-government would have to draw upon and which majority options it would have. The easiest thing for them would probably be if they could form a majority with DF alone, or with RV + LA + K. That could provide them with a stable platform, and I guess Lars Løkke Rasmussen might prefer the latter option as it would mean that his economic policies could largely be carried through. A majority alone with DF would allow them to carry through their immigration and justice policy with knobs on, but they would have difficulties agreeing on economic policy. However, right now neither of these options have a majority in the polls, and even if they did have it would be a very narrow one. So most likely V would have to deal with DF + at least one of the other three parties which would make every single negotiation hard.
An unknown quantity is the behaviour of S and SF after a lost election. SF will almost certainly backtrack to a markedly more left-wing position. The approach of S would probably depend a lot on their leadership; will Thorning-Schmidt stay and if not who will take over. If S continues approximately their current economic policies and is willing to cooperate a lot, then things could be a lot easier for a V-government.
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« Reply #123 on: August 07, 2013, 03:16:36 pm »

The decline and imminent fall of Gucci Helle has been a truly depressing sight. Going 2 miss u bb.

While her polling is indeed terrible, I think people are still to early in concluding that the right-wing will win the next Danish general election - though obviously they are heavy favourites. Keep in mind, there are over 2 years until the PM needs to call an election. A lot can happen in that time.
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« Reply #124 on: August 08, 2013, 03:49:20 pm »

The media is reporting that a cabinet reshuffle will take place tomorrow. Exciting to see how many changes will happen. Foreign Minister and former SF leader Villy Søvndal will be sacked according to most pundits, and the party might try to exchange that post for some ministries that they feel will be better for them such as Climate and Energy, Education, and Social and Integration.
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