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  The Great Nordic Thread
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Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1Iceland, but not Norway  
#2Norway, but not Iceland  
#3Both  
#4None of them  
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Total Voters: 153

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 151760 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #175 on: January 31, 2014, 11:23:40 am »
« edited: January 31, 2014, 11:38:25 am by Diouf »

Img


Minister of Enviroment Ida Auken leaves SF and joins Radikale (Social Liberals). She was probably the most popular SFer currrently, and has been a constant in the top 5 of the most popular ministers. Perhaps the biggest surprise defection so far. Interesting to see whether her mom, SF MEP Margrethe Auken, follows her. I wouldn't think so, but you can hardly rule out anything in SF currently.
The move was announced on Facebook, and her reasoning for joining Radikale is this: "I'm changing to the Radikale because I've been agreeing with them on value politics* for a long time now, because they have an international outlook, and realize that the economy and the environment must play together, not against each other". Ida Auken has arguably never focused much on solidarity, equality etc, and instead focused on the environment, the climate and international cooperation, but still this is a rather surprising move. The Radikale has been seen as the main culprit by many in SF, and their economy polices are far away from that of SF.

* Normally used for referring to things like immigration, law and order etc.


EDIT: Mom is not too pleased. "I'm sad and angry" Margrethe Auken says to Ritzau.
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politicus
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« Reply #176 on: February 01, 2014, 04:57:19 pm »

Kind of sad Auken chose to join the Social Liberals it would have been far more interesting if she teamed up with Uffe Elbæks The Alternative, which looks like it could evolve into something resembling the German Greens. But its obviously a safer career move.

The "green" wing in their parliament group is now reduced to ex-chairman candidate from the 90s 60+ Steen Gade, a bitchy theologian from Northern Jutland and Pia Olsen Dyhr, who has not yet declared her candidacy for the chairmanship, but said she will in all likelyhood leave the party if the left wing wins. So it looks like the party will fragment further.
Most pundits and political journalists think Olsen Dyhr will run and win, but I think the left wing will win - they got far more grassroot support and are the core of the party. Especially if Pertou  Mach runs. Choosing Jonas Dahl as a compromise candidate looks increasingly unlikely because the warring fractions don't seem to be interested in a compromise.

It might also be best for SPP to get a clear leftist platform and go back to basics, after all voters generally expect the chairman of a party named the Socialist Peoples Party to be a, ya know, socialist.
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politicus
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« Reply #177 on: February 01, 2014, 05:01:42 pm »
« Edited: February 01, 2014, 05:04:15 pm by politicus »

Ex Greenlandic Premier and Siumut deserter Hans Enoksen got his new Partii Naleraq approved by the election board today after getting the necessary 964 signatures. So he is now ready to challenge his successor and former boss Aleqa Hammond in the next election.
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Lurker
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« Reply #178 on: February 01, 2014, 05:27:51 pm »
« Edited: February 01, 2014, 05:29:56 pm by Lurker »

Why is there such poor "party loyalty" amongst Danish politicians? Seems like relatively prominent ones switch between the various parties in Folketinget all the time. That kind of stuff hardly ever happens elsewhere in Scandinavia.
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politicus
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« Reply #179 on: February 01, 2014, 05:58:45 pm »
« Edited: February 01, 2014, 06:16:20 pm by politicus »

Why is there such poor "party loyalty" amongst Danish politicians? Seems like relatively prominent ones switch between the various parties in Folketinget all the time. That kind of stuff hardly ever happens elsewhere in Scandinavia.

I don't thing it happens that often. I cant remember many prominent or semi-prominent ones outside of the SPP. Unless you count Pia Kjærsgaard leaving the dying Progressive Party back in 1995, but that was a split and not a jump  and Nasser Khader and Anders Samuelsens New Alliance, which was also a split more than a jump. Of course Khader then jumped to the Conservatives and became a bit of a joke.

Splits are more popular because we have 2% threshold, so its easier than in other Nordic countries.

Karen Jespersen, ex minister, left SD for the Liberals, but with her staunch anti-immigration/anti-Islam views she was clearly out of sync with her old party.

Other have been from dying or hopeless parties:

Tove Videbæk/Bodil Konbek, the two rivals from each wing of the Christian Democracts joining SD and Conservatives and Tom Behnke going from the dying Progressive Party to the Conservatives.

SPP is a special case. The party is in a process of disintegration. And it has moved very far away from its roots and in the process attracted some people who are just not at home in a traditional socialist party. Most of the jumpers are young people attracted to the success of folksy ex-leader Villy Søvndahl back when he was popular in 2008-10. Søvndahl moved the party far to the right on immigration and law & order and in 2009 the party chose a programme not even mentioning socialism. Now that the party is no longer popular and it looks like its going back to its red roots, they have no reason to stay.

Found this quote:

"Der er ingen tvivl om, at det er blevet lettere at skifte parti for både politisk engagerede mennesker og for folkevalgte. Politik er i dag for mange i højere grad blevet et værktøj til at fremme et mål, end det er en kulturbestemt indstilling til tilværelsen.”

This trend with a shift from culture based world view to a means to an end may be slighly more significant in Denmark. But still I should think it was a general trend.

tl;dr: apart from SPP disintegrating there aren't that many IMO and most leave to start new parties, trying to get their politics represented + we have a 2 threshold, not 4% Wink

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politicus
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« Reply #180 on: February 01, 2014, 06:29:24 pm »

New Megafon poll has DPP in 2nd place ahead of SD after the unpopular DONG-sale.


SD: 18,8 pct. (31. jan.) - 21,7 pct (22. jan.) - 24,8 pct. (2011)
Social Liberals: 7,4 pct. (31. jan.) - 6,6 pct. (22. jan.) - 9,5 pct. (2011)
Conservatives: 4,5 pct. (31. jan.) - 4,6 pct. (22. jan.) - 4,9 pct. (2011)
SPP: 4,5 pct. (31. jan.) - 5,6 pct. (22. jan.) - 9,2 pct. (2011)
Liberal Alliance: 5,1 pct. (31. jan.) - 5,2 pct. (22. jan.) - 5,0 pct. (2011)
Christian Democrats: 0,4 pct. (31. jan.) - 0,6 pct. (22. jan.) - 0,8 pct. (2011)
DPP: 20,1 pct. (31. jan.) - 16,1 pct. (22. jan.) - 12,3 pct. (2011)
Liberals: 26,7 pct. (31. jan.) - 27,5 pct. (22. jan.) - 26,7 pct. (2011)
Red Green Alliance: 12,2 pct. (31. jan.) - 11,6 pct. (22. jan.) - 6,7 pct. (2011)
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ingemann
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« Reply #181 on: February 02, 2014, 04:43:18 am »

Kind of sad Auken chose to join the Social Liberals it would have been far more interesting if she teamed up with Uffe Elbæks The Alternative, which looks like it could evolve into something resembling the German Greens. But its obviously a safer career move.

Not to insult anybody, but I think everyone get why she didn't embraced the Alternative, it honestly it look at best like something like Ny Alliance, just with less clear politic and without a widely popular front man, in fact it doesn't even seem to have politic yet, just meta-politic of bringing something new to Danish politics. As for worst case it simply seem to be Retsforbundet anno 2014. While it may make a niche for itself in Danish politics, weirded thing have been seen, I think they will go the same way as most new parties in Danish politics.

Ida Auken clearly became Social Liberal because she wanted to have influence on Danish politics, and there the Social Liberals wasn't a bad choice.
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politicus
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« Reply #182 on: February 02, 2014, 01:34:50 pm »

Kind of sad Auken chose to join the Social Liberals it would have been far more interesting if she teamed up with Uffe Elbæks The Alternative, which looks like it could evolve into something resembling the German Greens. But its obviously a safer career move.

Not to insult anybody, but I think everyone get why she didn't embraced the Alternative, it honestly it look at best like something like Ny Alliance, just with less clear politic and without a widely popular front man, in fact it doesn't even seem to have politic yet, just meta-politic of bringing something new to Danish politics. As for worst case it simply seem to be Retsforbundet anno 2014. While it may make a niche for itself in Danish politics, weirded thing have been seen, I think they will go the same way as most new parties in Danish politics.

Ida Auken clearly became Social Liberal because she wanted to have influence on Danish politics, and there the Social Liberals wasn't a bad choice.

All true and fairly obvious. Like I have stated earlier the "green" wing of SPP is already quasi-Social Liberal too begin with, so its no surprise that a career girl like her join them. If she had had another family background, she would likely have gone that road to begin with.

All I was saying that it would have been more interesting if she had had the guts to try develop The Alternative into something resembling the German Greens. I think The Alternative is a far more solid project than New Alliance since its based upon the idea that increased quality of life should be achieved without using more of scarce resources. This idea takes you in a particular direction and makes you choose particular solutions. like a steady state economy, and is therefore different than the wishy-washy centrism and "humanism" of New Alliance.

I agree that it might get the faith of Retsforbundet (which was not a bad party in my opinion), since idea based politics that doesnt fit nicely into the traditional left-right axis is a hard game to succeed in.

Still Retsforbundet was basically torn between liberalistic principles and the anti-speculation/communal land ownership, and later green and anti-EU, elements that appealed to leftists. I think this crowd will be more homogenous, which will help them.

Anyway: New inspiration is badly needed in the current situation where most traditional parties have ran out of fresh ideas regarding societys fundamental problems and are basically just letting the central administration develop "pragmatic" solutions.
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politicus
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« Reply #183 on: February 02, 2014, 01:49:54 pm »
« Edited: February 03, 2014, 09:35:11 am by politicus »

New ministers:

Social Liberals:

Martin Lidegaard, moves from Minister of Climate to the Ministry of Foregin Ministry which gets the European affairs back. They have given up on the silly idea of splitting foreign affairs in 4 parts and its now down to 2 with international trade going to the Ministry of Development.

Morten Østergaard, no. 2 in the Social Liberals hierarchy, moves from Research and Universities to Ministry of Taxes, making him a part of economic policy development and becomes one of the four members of the powerfull Economic Committee.

EU-parliamentarian Sofie Carsten Nielsen new Minister of Education and Research.

Rasmus Helveg Petersen from the Helveg Petersen political dynasty new Minister of Climate and Energy.

Manu Sareen new Minister of Welfare ("Social Minister")

SD:

All rounder Nick Hækkerup is new Minister of Health after Astrid Krag, as expected she didn't get to keep her portfolio despite the party swoop.

Political spokesperson Magnus Heunicke new Minister of Transportation.

Kirsten Brosbøl new minister of the Environment.

Mogens Jensen, best known as a great Nyrup Rasmussen impersonater is new Minister of Development and Trade.

The government is down from 22 to 20 ministers - 13 SDs and 7 Social Liberals.





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ingemann
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« Reply #184 on: February 02, 2014, 03:28:12 pm »

Kind of sad Auken chose to join the Social Liberals it would have been far more interesting if she teamed up with Uffe Elbæks The Alternative, which looks like it could evolve into something resembling the German Greens. But its obviously a safer career move.

Not to insult anybody, but I think everyone get why she didn't embraced the Alternative, it honestly it look at best like something like Ny Alliance, just with less clear politic and without a widely popular front man, in fact it doesn't even seem to have politic yet, just meta-politic of bringing something new to Danish politics. As for worst case it simply seem to be Retsforbundet anno 2014. While it may make a niche for itself in Danish politics, weirded thing have been seen, I think they will go the same way as most new parties in Danish politics.

Ida Auken clearly became Social Liberal because she wanted to have influence on Danish politics, and there the Social Liberals wasn't a bad choice.

All true and fairly obvious. Like I have stated earlier the "green" wing of SPP is already quasi-Social Liberal too begin with, so its no surprise that a career girl like her join them. If she had had another family background, she would likely have gone that road to begin with.

Yes I agree, clearly she only chosen SPP rather than the Social Liberals because of her mother's membership.

Quote
All I was saying that it would have been more interesting if she had had the guts to try develop The Alternative into something resembling the German Greens. I think The Alternative is a far more solid project than New Alliance since its based upon the idea that increased quality of life should be achieved without using more of scarce resources. This idea takes you in a particular direction and makes you choose particular solutions. like a steady state economy, and is therefore different than the wishy-washy centrism and "humanism" of New Alliance.

I think we run into a fundamental difference here, I think the Alternative are fundamental a party attempting to move into an already full political niche and the new thing they have to offered are ... well purely structural. I don't see a fundamental difference from SL, UL or SPP on environment, economical I have no idea what they offer yet, expect they don't call themselves socialists and structural they seem to offer the bottom up structure of UL and SPP. So I personal I see them as SL with the internal structure or UL. After SPP collapse I don't see that as a selling issue.

Quote
I agree that it might get the faith of Retsforbundet (which was not a bad party in my opinion), since idea based politics that doesnt fit nicely into the traditional left-right axis is a hard game to succeed in.

Still Retsforbundet was basically torn between liberalistic principles and the anti-speculation/communal land ownership, and later green and anti-EU, elements that appealed to leftists. I think this crowd will be more homogenous, which will help them.


I didn't have a problem Retforbundet, but the thing which killed them, was not their politic, but decentral structur which made cooperation and compromises almost impossible.

Quote
Anyway: New inspiration is badly needed in the current situation where most traditional parties have ran out of fresh ideas regarding societys fundamental problems and are basically just letting the central administration develop "pragmatic" solutions.

I agree that it's the fundamental problem in Danish politics, the problem are that I don't see the Alternative as the solution, the Chaos Pilot (a education founded by Elbæk) have never lived up to the promises of bringing the wild creativity of the artistic world (Elbæk's own words) into the private sector, most Chaos Pilots have ended up in the public or semi-public sector. Honestly I see Elbæk as mostly full of hot air, and the Alternative seem just one more hot air project. But while with the Chaos Pilots he only needed to convince a few "latte drinkers" (sorry don't hit me) in the public administration, here he will have to convince at least several procents of the voters which already have several green alternatives. I don't think he will succeed here, it's a relative niche he goes after and it's already full.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #185 on: February 03, 2014, 12:48:09 pm »

How will SF leaving the coalition affect the government? Will Social Democrats and Social Liberals continue a minority government, hoping for parliamentary support from SF in addition to Enhedslisten? Or will they now look for an additional partner, maybe DPP? While I understand that the government is not keen on new elections, will they really be able to avoid them?

And life sort of imitates art again... Borgen saw the SD and SL equivalents end up as a minority government when the Greens (their SPP) pulled out.
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« Reply #186 on: February 03, 2014, 12:55:08 pm »

How will SF leaving the coalition affect the government? Will Social Democrats and Social Liberals continue a minority government, hoping for parliamentary support from SF in addition to Enhedslisten? Or will they now look for an additional partner, maybe DPP? While I understand that the government is not keen on new elections, will they really be able to avoid them?

And life sort of imitates art again... Borgen saw the SD and SL equivalents end up as a minority government when the Greens (their SPP) pulled out.

Don't you mean Labour and Moderates? Wink
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Diouf
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« Reply #187 on: February 04, 2014, 05:19:27 am »

Img


Another SF MP leaves the party. As expected, Ole Sohn moves to the Social Democrats as well. He was a long time member of the Communist Party, and led it from 1987 to 1991. The picture above is from a greeting with Erich Honecker during the celebrations of DDR's 40 year anniversary. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, he joined SF in 1992. He played a key role in Villy Søvndal's plan to make the party ready for government, and after the 2011 election he was made Minister for Business and Growth. When Villy Søvndal resigned as a party leader in 2012, he announced that he was not running at the next general election and that he would make his post as a minister available for the new SF leader. Since then, he hasn't been very active, but in the last couple of weeks, he has returned with a harsh criticism of the left wing of SF, who in the end made the party pull out of the government. As mentioned earlier, he announced that he was still going to support everything the government proposed, so this move was quite inevitable.
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politicus
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« Reply #188 on: February 04, 2014, 05:42:08 am »
« Edited: February 04, 2014, 09:49:30 am by politicus »

Well, he is about to retire after the next election to run his publishing company, but still: good luck with the former Comrade in Chief SD!

Edit: I see he sold the company in December, so retirement I guess.
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« Reply #189 on: February 04, 2014, 10:20:16 am »

Comrades turned social-democratic are not necessarily the worst politicians - see Willy Brandt.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #190 on: February 04, 2014, 11:33:03 am »

Or Denis Healey.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #191 on: February 04, 2014, 12:29:40 pm »
« Edited: February 04, 2014, 12:31:19 pm by London Man »

How will SF leaving the coalition affect the government? Will Social Democrats and Social Liberals continue a minority government, hoping for parliamentary support from SF in addition to Enhedslisten? Or will they now look for an additional partner, maybe DPP? While I understand that the government is not keen on new elections, will they really be able to avoid them?

And life sort of imitates art again... Borgen saw the SD and SL equivalents end up as a minority government when the Greens (their SPP) pulled out.

Don't you mean Labour and Moderates? Wink

Yes, that's what I meant, the equivalents in the show to the two RL parties.
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politicus
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« Reply #192 on: February 07, 2014, 01:54:04 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2014, 07:53:46 pm by politicus »

All remaining 12 members of SPPs parliamentary group backs former Minister of Transport Pia Olsen Dyhr from the party's "green" right wing as new chairman of the SPP. So it looks like a shoe in for Olsen Dyhr who lost a chairmanship election back in 2005. Its a bit surprising that the left wing that has 7 members doesn't want to field an opponent, but all possible candidates have declined.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #193 on: February 07, 2014, 02:19:03 pm »

Playing a sort of sub-John Golding game?
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ingemann
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« Reply #194 on: February 07, 2014, 04:52:21 pm »

All reamining 12 members of SPPs parliamentary group backs former minister Pia Olsen Dyhr from the party "green" right wing as new chairman of the . So it looks like a shoe in for Olsen dyhr that lost a chairmanship election in 2005. Its a bit surprising that the left wing that has 7 members doesnt want to field an opponent, but all possible candidates has declined.

I really don't see any among them, who would be able to get the chairman post, and even if they did they would have to deal with losing the next election. Dyhr can at least blame the loss next election on others, as she was not the one which negotiated the government deal and didn't create chaos in the party.
 
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politicus
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« Reply #195 on: February 08, 2014, 08:46:12 am »
« Edited: February 08, 2014, 10:32:46 am by politicus »

All remaining 12 members of SPPs parliamentary group backs former minister Pia Olsen Dyhr from the party "green" right wing as new chairman. So it looks like a shoe in for Olsen Dyhr that lost a chairmanship election in 2005. Its a bit surprising that the left wing that has 7 members doesn't want to field an opponent, but all possible candidates has declined.

I really don't see any among them, who would be able to get the chairman post, and even if they did they would have to deal with losing the next election. Dyhr can at least blame the loss next election on others, as she was not the one which negotiated the government deal and didn't create chaos in the party.
 

I think everyone in SPP has already accepted that the next election is lost, so that's not really an issue and Olsen Dyhr is not a person that can get the disillusioned leftists back from the Red Greens.

You are right that there aren't any obvious leadership candidates on the left wing after Pertou Mach declined, but at this stage Olsen Dyhr is fairly isolated in the party. Her only allies in the party top are two 60+ - EU parliamentarian Margrethe Auken (mother of ex Environmental Minister Ida Auken) and Steen Gade (who will likely not run again) + ex group chairman Pernille Vigsø Bagge. Since the party will lose seats she is unlikely to get supporters elected. Before long the left wing will start to undermine her. Some journalist whose name I cant remember called it the Reds Taliban-stategy: Run to the hills and start reconquering every bit of territory until your opponents are only nominally in control, then eliminate them.

Basically I think SSP would be better of going back to their red roots straight away, its what a majority of the grassroots want and its their only chance to regain their position as the largest party on the left wing, which is pretty essential for their long term survival. Otherwise they will be squeezed between SD and the Red Greens and slowly die off.

Playing a sort of sub-John Golding game?

I looked him up, but must admit I didn't get this one. How did the Labour left undermine Golding?
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politicus
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« Reply #196 on: February 10, 2014, 09:42:22 am »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 09:48:53 am by politicus »

Peter Andersen. A 24 year old BA of Education student (and amateur poet and actor) has challenged Pia Olsen Dyhr for the SPP leadership "to get a debate in the party". So even though the entire leadership agreed on Olsen Dyhr the troubled party now has to go through almost a month of campaigning, and the protest vote on Andersen might be embarrassingly high.

EDIT: He didnt get the necesarry signatures to be a candidate. Nobody else declared their candidacy before the deadline this morning and Olsen Dyhr is thereby the new chairman of the troubled party.

In a Voxmeter poll this weekend SPP was down to 2,4%, dangerously close to the threshold. Further infighting could see them fall below it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #197 on: February 10, 2014, 11:57:53 am »

I looked him up, but must admit I didn't get this one. How did the Labour left undermine Golding?

They didn't: he undermined them (that is, I was thinking of tactics adopted rather than which faction actually uses them). My fault for the confusion: assumed there would be more about his antics on his wiki bio than there is actually is.

Mostly I was thinking of the fact that he persuaded his fellow right-wingers on the NEC to let the Left put whatever they wanted in the 1983 manifesto, so that they copped all the blame for the inevitable electoral horror story. Which they did.
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politicus
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« Reply #198 on: February 10, 2014, 12:28:43 pm »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 07:02:23 pm by politicus »

I looked him up, but must admit I didn't get this one. How did the Labour left undermine Golding?

They didn't: he undermined them (that is, I was thinking of tactics adopted rather than which faction actually uses them). My fault for the confusion: assumed there would be more about his antics on his wiki bio than there is actually is.

Mostly I was thinking of the fact that he persuaded his fellow right-wingers on the NEC to let the Left put whatever they wanted in the 1983 manifesto, so that they copped all the blame for the inevitable electoral horror story. Which they did.

Okay, in that case I think you are right. Since the Reds dont have a credible chairman candidate (at least not one willing to run) among their parliamentarians, they likely think they might as well let the most prominent Green lead the party into the inevitable defeat and then take over and try to rebuild it as a more classical left wing party.

EDIT: Anyway, as of today Pia Olsen Dyhr is the new chairman. She is 42, has a MA in Politcal Science, is chairman of the partys youth organization, ex deputy chairman of a third world development aid organization.
She is the daughter of a cleaning lady and an alkoholized father on early retirement, whom she grew up with. So she has working class and tough upbringing credentials, which on paper makes her a good fit to reconquer some of the lost voters. Still her main interests are: climate, enviromental issues, consumer interests and international cooperation. So greenie. Her husband is a trade union bureaucrat who left SSP for SD together with all the rest of the "workerites", and that might be a problem for her image as well.
 
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« Reply #199 on: February 21, 2014, 10:27:54 am »

Img


Wilke analysis of voter movement since the 2011 election. At the top it says which party did you vote for in the 2011 election, and at the left it says which party would you vote for tomorrow; i.e. 11.8 % of those who voted for the Social Democrats in 2011 would vote for DF tomorrow. The two columns to the right are don't remember, and didn't vote.

Unfortunately, the poll only includes 989 respondents which I believe is a bit too small for polls like this. This makes for a few weird results for the small parties; e.g. I sincerely doubt that 50 % of the 2011 Christian Democrats would now vote for the Liberal Alliance. However, in general the poll looks valid.

The Social Democrats and SF have both lost around 10 % of their voters to DF, which is the main reason why the right-wing parties have a big lead in the polls. Both parties, but especially SF, have also lost several voters to Enhedslisten. And then, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, SF has also lost a huge amount of voters (24 %) to the Social Democrats. Several politicians have made the same move since the election. Some of the voters probably share the "workerite"-sentiment of those politicians who felt that SF did not really want to be in government, but it is arguably also just due to a general feeling of incompetence and internal bickering in SF.

Venstre have continued eating the Conservatives; a process that also took place before the 2011 election, and accelerated during the campaign when the Conservatives made their now infamous pact with the Social Liberals. The other right-wing parties, the Liberal Alliance and DF, are also eating their part of the Conservative cake.   
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