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  The Great Nordic Thread
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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1Iceland, but not Norway  
#2Norway, but not Iceland  
#3Both  
#4None of them  
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Total Voters: 153

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 153118 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #250 on: May 28, 2014, 02:52:35 pm »


With other polls showing the Social Democrats back ahead, would Helle risk a snap election at all?

Well, it would probably be seen as a bit too opportunist if she called an election right now when it's not completely clear what will happen leaderwise in the Liberals. Soon it will be summer holidays; normally not a time for general elections. So then an election will not be before September when much of the current Liberal problems could be over. I haven't seen a poll yet which shows a lead for the left-wing parties combined this time. There was one after the last expenses scandal, but after a few weeks it was pretty much back to normal with big leads for the opposition. The same will not neccessarily happen this time, but the government can't be sure that such cases will in the end decide how people vote at a general election.

Generally, I believe that she will still try to wait as a long as possible. The government's (only?) hope is that the economy improves so much that their voters will return as their reforms will be viewed in a more positive light. Although the economy has been improving during the last year or so, they will probably hope that the situation will be even better in a year's time.
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« Reply #251 on: May 28, 2014, 03:12:35 pm »

DF biggest party in a national poll for the first time ever. In a poll by YouGov for MetroExpress, DF is the biggest party. This is not very surprising days after they won the EP elections clearly and with the Liberals tormented by the expenses scandals of their leader, but nevertheless quite significant. No suprise that it's a YouGov poll either; they have consistenly been showing the highest DF results.

DF 23.9% 42 seats
Liberals 21.3% 38
Social Democrats 17.6% 31
Enhedslisten/Unity List 11.9% 21
Social Liberals 8.7% 15
Liberal Alliance 6.7% 12
SF 4.8% 9
Conservatives 4.2% 7
Christian Democrats 0.9% 0

Government + supporting parties = 76 seats
Opposition = 99 seats

With a result like this, could Thulesen Dahl become Prime Minister, or is DF still controversial enough that Venstre would refuse to enter a coalition with them?
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politicus
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« Reply #252 on: May 28, 2014, 03:20:58 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2014, 05:03:27 pm by politicus »

DF biggest party in a national poll for the first time ever. In a poll by YouGov for MetroExpress, DF is the biggest party. This is not very surprising days after they won the EP elections clearly and with the Liberals tormented by the expenses scandals of their leader, but nevertheless quite significant. No suprise that it's a YouGov poll either; they have consistenly been showing the highest DF results.

DF 23.9% 42 seats
Liberals 21.3% 38
Social Democrats 17.6% 31
Enhedslisten/Unity List 11.9% 21
Social Liberals 8.7% 15
Liberal Alliance 6.7% 12
SF 4.8% 9
Conservatives 4.2% 7
Christian Democrats 0.9% 0

Government + supporting parties = 76 seats
Opposition = 99 seats

With a result like this, could Thulesen Dahl become Prime Minister, or is DF still controversial enough that Venstre would refuse to enter a coalition with them?

No. Allowing DF to lead a government would give them a chance to become the biggest party for a long time. Thulesen-Dahl is a capable and intelligent guy and might very well be succesful and the Prime Ministers party generally gains from its coalition partners. That would be very problematic for the Liberals.

And the Liberals and DF could never agree on an EU policy.

Regarding whether DF would be too controversial I think the Liberal leadership has crossed the Rubicon on that one some time ago (saying things like they have "a community of values" with DF etc.), but they would lose some of their more principled actual liberal members to Radikale Venstre or Liberal Alliance if they formed a government with DF.
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ingemann
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« Reply #253 on: May 28, 2014, 04:45:04 pm »

DF biggest party in a national poll for the first time ever. In a poll by YouGov for MetroExpress, DF is the biggest party. This is not very surprising days after they won the EP elections clearly and with the Liberals tormented by the expenses scandals of their leader, but nevertheless quite significant. No suprise that it's a YouGov poll either; they have consistenly been showing the highest DF results.

DF 23.9% 42 seats
Liberals 21.3% 38
Social Democrats 17.6% 31
Enhedslisten/Unity List 11.9% 21
Social Liberals 8.7% 15
Liberal Alliance 6.7% 12
SF 4.8% 9
Conservatives 4.2% 7
Christian Democrats 0.9% 0

Government + supporting parties = 76 seats
Opposition = 99 seats

With a result like this, could Thulesen Dahl become Prime Minister, or is DF still controversial enough that Venstre would refuse to enter a coalition with them?

As politicus says the big problem is DPP's EU policy, while DPP are not against EU (as they don't support Denmark leaving it), they're to critical and populist on the issue to gain support from a majority in parliament.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #254 on: May 28, 2014, 05:30:49 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2014, 04:07:31 pm by eric82oslo »

I like the fact that conservative Christians have no place in Danish politics. Tongue
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politicus
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« Reply #255 on: May 28, 2014, 06:41:34 pm »

I like the fact that conservative Christian have no place in Danish politics. Tongue

Somewhat true, since the Christian Democrats are not represented and the Conservatives are very secular.

All though there are two representatives of the right wing Lutheran Tidehverv movement in the DPP group and one of them - Christian Langballe - is a Minister.

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« Reply #256 on: May 29, 2014, 07:52:44 am »

I like the fact that conservative Christian have no place in Danish politics. Tongue

I think that it something most of the Scandinavian countries have in common. The Christian Democrats appeared in places like Italy and Germany because the traditional rightwing bourgeois parties had compromised by supporting fascists or Nazis, or simply by being associated with them. The same dynamics weren’t in place in Norway, Sweden or Denmark.

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politicus
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« Reply #257 on: May 29, 2014, 09:09:46 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2014, 09:16:03 am by politicus »

I like the fact that conservative Christian have no place in Danish politics. Tongue

I think that it something most of the Scandinavian countries have in common. The Christian Democrats appeared in places like Italy and Germany because the traditional rightwing bourgeois parties had compromised by supporting fascists or Nazis, or simply by being associated with them. The same dynamics weren't in place in Norway, Sweden or Denmark.



Christian Democrats do not necessarily equal Christian Conservatives - especially in Scandinavia  and if you do actually make that equation DK, Norway, Sweden do have conservative Christian parties.

The German catholic party Zentrum, which was the main ancestor of CDU, dates back to the German Empire. CDU became bigger because of bourgeois parties incriminating themselves by collaborating with the Nazis, but Christian Democrats would have existed as a strong party anyway.

As mentioned earlier Christian conservatives do have a place in Danish politics, as an important segment in the DPP - as seen in the partys growing homophobia and opposition to gay marriage.
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« Reply #258 on: May 29, 2014, 10:49:06 am »

I like the fact that conservative Christian have no place in Danish politics. Tongue

I think that it something most of the Scandinavian countries have in common. The Christian Democrats appeared in places like Italy and Germany because the traditional rightwing bourgeois parties had compromised by supporting fascists or Nazis, or simply by being associated with them. The same dynamics weren't in place in Norway, Sweden or Denmark.



Christian Democrats do not necessarily equal Christian Conservatives - especially in Scandinavia  and if you do actually make that equation DK, Norway, Sweden do have conservative Christian parties.

The German catholic party Zentrum, which was the main ancestor of CDU, dates back to the German Empire. CDU became bigger because of bourgeois parties incriminating themselves by collaborating with the Nazis, but Christian Democrats would have existed as a strong party anyway.

As mentioned earlier Christian conservatives do have a place in Danish politics, as an important segment in the DPP - as seen in the partys growing homophobia and opposition to gay marriage.

I agree. Christian Democrats are not necessarily Christian conservatives.  They can easily belong to other parties as well. You mentioned that DPP caters to a lot of the conservative Christian voters in Denmark. That is to some extent the case in Norway as well. People who place a great deal of emphasis on abortion and gay marriage usually vote for FrP or KrF.

But my point is that Scandinavia is distinct by the fact that Christian democratic parties are either marginal (as in Norway and Sweden), or gone altogether (as in Denmark). I seem to remember that there was a Christian Democratic party in parliament in Denmark, but that they disappeared during the late 1990s?
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« Reply #259 on: May 30, 2014, 03:22:58 pm »

The problem with transfering he whole Christian democratic Party to Denmark and comparing the different Christian movement in DPP and CD (Christian Democrats)/CPP (Christian People Party) are several.

Traditional the fundamentalist and low church elements in Danish Lutheranism have connected with liberal and socialist parties.

As for CPP have only reached out to a relative small and specifict segment in the Danish Lutheran movement; the crypto calvinist "Indre Mission" (Internal Mission) who make up around 6-10 percent of the Danish population, and among this movement only a minority have supported CPP, most have traditional voted Venstre, but some found Venstre too right and anti-solidaric, but was not willing to vote on the "Godless" Social democrats. Historical these people voted for for the Social Liberals, but when pornography and abortion was made legal in the late 60ties, these people became aware, that the Social Liberals no longer represented their interest, and CPP was established. This are a quite different history from Christian Democrats outside Scandinavia.

The religious aspects in DPP have very little in common with this. First of all the priests in DPP belong to Tidehverv a very small and elitary ecclessial fraction in Danish Lutheranism, which build individualism, nationalist and the thoughts of Kierkegaard. Before their connection with DPP, Tidehverv was traditional split between a pro-Social Democratic fraction and a pro-Conservative fraction, with the latter fraction in the thirties flirting with fascism. While the priest from Tidehverv have delivered much of DPP's intellectualism it have never really reached down to the common voters, which if they're religious at all are more likely to identify with the very liberal but somewhat nationalist Grundtvigianism.
So what Tidehverv have delivered to DPP are not voters, but an intellectual ballast, which the party needed.
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politicus
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« Reply #260 on: May 31, 2014, 03:19:51 pm »
« Edited: May 31, 2014, 06:13:50 pm by politicus »

The problem with transferring he whole Christian democratic Party to Denmark and comparing the different Christian movement in DPP and CD (Christian Democrats)/CPP (Christian People Party) are several.

Traditional the fundamentalist and low church elements in Danish Lutheranism have connected with liberal and socialist parties.

As for CPP have only reached out to a relative small and specific segment in the Danish Lutheran movement; the crypto Calvinist "Indre Mission" (Internal Mission) who make up around 6-10 percent of the Danish population, and among this movement only a minority have supported CPP, most have traditional voted Venstre, but some found Venstre too right and anti-solidaric, but was not willing to vote on the "Godless" Social democrats. Historical these people voted for for the Social Liberals, but when pornography and abortion was made legal in the late 60ties, these people became aware, that the Social Liberals no longer represented their interest, and CPP was established. This are a quite different history from Christian Democrats outside Scandinavia.

The religious aspects in DPP have very little in common with this. First of all the priests in DPP belong to Tidehverv a very small and elitary ecclessial fraction in Danish Lutheranism, which build individualism, nationalist and the thoughts of Kierkegaard. Before their connection with DPP, Tidehverv was traditional split between a pro-Social Democratic fraction and a pro-Conservative fraction, with the latter fraction in the thirties flirting with fascism. While the priest from Tidehverv have delivered much of DPP's intellectualism it have never really reached down to the common voters, which if they're religious at all are more likely to identify with the very liberal but somewhat nationalist Grundtvigianism.
So what Tidehverv have delivered to DPP are not voters, but an intellectual ballast, which the party needed.

While a few members of Inner Mission may have voted for the Social Liberals its members voted quite heavily for the old conservative party Højre (the Right) in the 19th century and after the turn of the century drifted towards the Liberals, representing their rural interests.

Inner Mission is pietistic, but I wouldn't call them crypto-Calvinist.

Anyway, the two most classical Christian Right types in the DPP parliamentary group come from Inner Mission. Its the couple Mikkel Dencker and Mette Hjermind Dencker.

As family policy spokesperson she is responsible for most of the party's anti-gay rhetoric linking gay marriage to people marrying dogs and goats, something their deputy chairman Søren Espersen called "figurative speech".

Ms. Dencker has also claimed that single parents, homosexuals, divorcees and children leaving home before they are 18 are unnatural.

As a sample on her rhetoric from November 2013:

”Do people whose life partner is of the same sex exist? Do people who live alone with their children exist? Do children who have never met their father, because they are created with insemination exist? Do children living together with multiple adults exist? The answer to all those questions is YES! It exists in todays Denmark. Is it natural? No! No matter how recognized, widespread and normal it will be, it will never be natural to live in a way that is against the order of nature”.

Espersens remark about Russian discrimination of gays as "that little gay thing" and DPP critique of Crown Prince Frederick (who is an IOC member) for criticizing Russia's discrimination of gays in connection with the Sochi Olympics is also part of the party's new anti-gay rhetoric.


On Tidehverv

I have posted on Tidehverv earlier and I think we more or less agree on this strange movement.

I would just like to add the characteristic of Tidehverv and their rhetoric from the poet, priest and national resistance icon Kaj Munk (murdered by the Germans in 1944):

"God is everything, I am nothing and you are an idiot!". That is basically how those guys still debate.

EDIT: While Tidehverv are not conservative Christians in the usual sense they do share many Christian Right positions and Tidehverv nestor Søren Krarup did say that "gay people are handicapped" during the gay marriage debate.

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politicus
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« Reply #261 on: May 31, 2014, 03:40:18 pm »
« Edited: May 31, 2014, 03:46:43 pm by politicus »

Generally I prefer the labels Christian Democrats and Christian Right to Christian Conservatives when debating this topic. Christian Democracy is fundamentally a form of conservatism, but many Christian Democrats have policy positions on economics and environmental issues that are to the left of conservatives because our conservatism is based on different issues.

Of the Christian parties in Scandinavia only the new and very small "The Christian Party" in Iceland is Christian Right in the US sense. The others are more or less centrists with the Danish as the most left wing and the Swedish as the most right wing.

They are also of different age:

Norway 1933, Finland 1958, Sweden 1964 and Denmark 1970.
 
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politicus
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« Reply #262 on: May 31, 2014, 07:08:57 pm »

Anthropologist and MP in the Folketing Sara Olsvig (35) is  the new chairman for Greenlands main opposition part IA after a narrow 37-35 victory over temporary chairman Aqqaluaq B. Egede. Olsvig now leaves the Folketing. Her election is a victory of the Nuuk based well educated segment over the settlements.
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politicus
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« Reply #263 on: June 01, 2014, 03:25:23 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2014, 03:46:38 pm by politicus »

Danish Liberal leader and centre-right Prime Minister candidate Lars Løkke Rasmussen is scheduled to meet with his party's Executive Committee on Tuesday for a vote of confidence on his continued leadership after the expense scandal. But a growing number of local associations - especially in Jutland - and politicians demand his resignation. Observers think it will be difficult for Løkke to get the 70-75% support they think is necessary for him to continue as chairman with any authority and predict he will step down before the meeting - rather than face the humiliation of a defeat or a razor thin victory.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #264 on: June 02, 2014, 03:56:46 am »

In Sweden those who didn't belong to the state Church, the evangelicals, were traditionally supporting the liberals. Once the liberals became, well, liberal, the Christian Democrats eventually arose as a response.
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« Reply #265 on: June 02, 2014, 04:40:31 am »

In Sweden those who didn't belong to the state Church, the evangelicals, were traditionally supporting the liberals. Once the liberals became, well, liberal, the Christian Democrats eventually arose as a response.

When were the Liberals really liberal? I mean except maybe for a few years during Bengt Westerberg's reign.  Tongue
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« Reply #266 on: June 02, 2014, 05:39:46 am »
« Edited: June 02, 2014, 05:55:48 am by rosin »

It seems like the Danish liberal party Venstre has been dug down into a pretty deep hole by the expenses of the party's leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

In a brand new Megafon poll is Venstre down on 14,5%, less than 3/5 of the party's result at the 2011 election.
Moreover, this poll is the first one since the 2011 election, where the center-left bloc has a majority.

Full poll:



Edit: The leader board of Venstre plan an extraordinary meeting tomorrow. With this poll in recent memory, I don't think the meeting will be boring...
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« Reply #267 on: June 02, 2014, 10:15:43 am »

It seems like the Danish liberal party Venstre has been dug down into a pretty deep hole by the expenses of the party's leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

In a brand new Megafon poll is Venstre down on 14,5%, less than 3/5 of the party's result at the 2011 election.
Moreover, this poll is the first one since the 2011 election, where the center-left bloc has a majority.

Full poll:



Edit: The leader board of Venstre plan an extraordinary meeting tomorrow. With this poll in recent memory, I don't think the meeting will be boring...

How does this poll work? A+B+F+Red-Green only gets them to 47.9%...
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« Reply #268 on: June 02, 2014, 10:37:04 am »
« Edited: June 02, 2014, 10:46:52 am by rosin »

How does this poll work? A+B+F+Red-Green only gets them to 47.9%...

Well, as far as my calculation goes, ABFØ is at 50.8% and CIVO is at 47.8%. Then I guess that the 1.4%, which doesn't lead to any representation (0.8% for list K + 0.6% for others (øvrige)) has been shared equally to make the vote on the blocs total 100%.


EDIT: Ah, maybe you have used the numbers from the middle column. That is the numbers of the pollster's former poll, the new poll are the rightmost numbers
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« Reply #269 on: June 02, 2014, 10:43:40 am »

How does this poll work? A+B+F+Red-Green only gets them to 47.9%...

Well, as far as my calculation goes, ABFØ is at 50.8% and CIVO is at 47.8%. Then I guess that the 1.4%, which doesn't lead to any representation (0.8% for list K + 0.6% for others (øvrige)) has been shared equally to make the vote on the blocs total 100%.

I was looking at last week's poll in the middle column! My mistake
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« Reply #270 on: June 03, 2014, 05:43:59 am »

Quote
New leader would improve Liberal vote


A new opinion poll undertaken for DR by the analysis institute, Epinion, reveals that 28 per cent of Danes would be more or much more likely to vote Liberal if Lars Løkke Rasmussen were no longer party leader.
The poll also shows that if it was solely based on right-wing voters, this figure would be as high as 36 per cent

A new leader would not mean fewer votes
On the other hand, only 13 per cent of Danes replied that they were less or much less likely to vote Liberal with a leader other than Løkke Rasmussen.
Here too, the picture is no better, with only 9 per cent of the right wing vote.
However, this does not alter Liberal Party political spokesperson Inge Støjberg’s support for her party leader.
“It doesn’t surprise me that many Danes are in doubt about voting Liberal after recent negative press,” she says, but insists that Løkke Rasmussen is still the right leader for the party.

Significant challenges

On election night, Løkke Rasmussen invited the party central committee to a crisis meeting to discuss the future of the party and also his own role.
Since then, an increasing number of party members have turned their backs on their leader, including former Minister for the Church and Integration, Birthe Rønn Hornbech, as well as current MEP Jens Rohde.

http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Andre_sprog/English/2014/06/02/130923.htm
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politicus
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« Reply #271 on: June 03, 2014, 06:11:41 am »

Quote
New leader would improve Liberal vote


A new opinion poll undertaken for DR by the analysis institute, Epinion, reveals that 28 per cent of Danes would be more or much more likely to vote Liberal if Lars Løkke Rasmussen were no longer party leader.
The poll also shows that if it was solely based on right-wing voters, this figure would be as high as 36 per cent

A new leader would not mean fewer votes
On the other hand, only 13 per cent of Danes replied that they were less or much less likely to vote Liberal with a leader other than Løkke Rasmussen.
Here too, the picture is no better, with only 9 per cent of the right wing vote.
However, this does not alter Liberal Party political spokesperson Inge Støjberg’s support for her party leader.
“It doesn’t surprise me that many Danes are in doubt about voting Liberal after recent negative press,” she says, but insists that Løkke Rasmussen is still the right leader for the party.

Significant challenges

On election night, Løkke Rasmussen invited the party central committee to a crisis meeting to discuss the future of the party and also his own role.
Since then, an increasing number of party members have turned their backs on their leader, including former Minister for the Church and Integration, Birthe Rønn Hornbech, as well as current MEP Jens Rohde.

http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Andre_sprog/English/2014/06/02/130923.htm

Lol at DR for translating hovedbestyrelse to central comitee!
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« Reply #272 on: June 03, 2014, 10:10:43 am »

Very interesting poll. I didn’t expect to see the Social Democrats do so well, or Venstre do so badly.

If Danish Peoples Party actually became bigger than Venstre in a real election, how would that change the dynamics on the Danish right?
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« Reply #273 on: June 03, 2014, 10:36:58 am »

Very interesting poll. I didn’t expect to see the Social Democrats do so well, or Venstre do so badly.

If Danish Peoples Party actually became bigger than Venstre in a real election, how would that change the dynamics on the Danish right?


I have no idea and if someone say they do, they're wrong.

DPP are between two point, the untouchable and the mainstream, last time such a party became the biggest was the SocDem in the early part of the century. So there are little precedence for how the voters and the Right will react to DPP being biggest. I doubt the Right would give DPP the PM position, on the other hand if DPP are the biggest party, it would look weird, as avoidance of responsability (from DPP side) and as an insult (from the other party in government) if they didn't became part of the government.
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« Reply #274 on: June 03, 2014, 11:43:19 am »

How does this poll work? A+B+F+Red-Green only gets them to 47.9%...

Well, as far as my calculation goes, ABFØ is at 50.8% and CIVO is at 47.8%. Then I guess that the 1.4%, which doesn't lead to any representation (0.8% for list K + 0.6% for others (øvrige)) has been shared equally to make the vote on the blocs total 100%.

I was looking at last week's poll in the middle column! My mistake

The one in red is from the 2011 election.
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