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  The Great Nordic Thread
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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1Iceland, but not Norway  
#2Norway, but not Iceland  
#3Both  
#4None of them  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 153

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 152161 times)
politicus
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« Reply #600 on: September 06, 2015, 09:33:22 am »
« edited: September 06, 2015, 09:41:40 am by politicus »

Óttarr Proppé is the new lader of Bright Future elected with acclamation at the Congress yesterday, since no other candidates ran.

Img


So the former Best Party councillor, book store clerk and lead singer in punkbands like Ham and Rass are now in charge of the troubled party.
 
Brynhildur Pétursdóttir, who was the favourite of party co-founder Heiða Kristín Helgadóttir, never ran, but chose to back Proppé and instead became the new chairman of their Althing group. While the Liberal suburban Deputy Mayor Guðlaug Kristjánsdóttir chose to withdraw from the leadership race prior to the congress. She also lost the vote for chairman of the board 75-35 to Brynhildur S. Björnsdóttir. This means that the old Best Party people are now firmly in control of BF, whereas the more mainstream Social Liberals lost out.


The party decided:

- To encourage the government to take significantly more war refugees from Syria.
- Iceland should become a country where no fossil fuels are used (so only electrical cars etc.).
(there would probably be an exception for air travel, they are not that crazy)
- Iceland should stop all searching for oil outside the NE coast.

SDA and LG have also decided to stop oil investigation, but they approved it themselves while in government, so a bit hypocritical.

It looks like BF will try to out-Green the Left Greens with their total outfacing of fossil fuels proposal. EU membership was not even on the agenda at the previously enthusiastically Europhile party.
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« Reply #601 on: September 07, 2015, 05:39:44 am »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 07:53:39 am by politicus »

New Icelandic refugee poll:
http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/492-taep-90-vilja-taka-a-moti-flottamoennun-fra-syrlandi

How many Syrian war refugees should Iceland take in the next 12 months?

None 11.5
Max 50 19.4 (current quota)
Max 150 14.0
Max 250 10.7
Max 500 14.5 (government pro-refugee ministers estimate)
500-1000 9.0
1000-2000 6.5
More than 2000 14.8 (very high, 1600 is proportionally = Sweden)


Share that wants more than 2000:

BF 36%
Pirates 25%
LG 23%
SDA 19%
PP 7%
IP 2%


Share that wants none:

PP 18%
IP 12%
Pirates 10%
SDA 8%
LG 2%
BF 0%

So it seems BF is in accordance with their voters in wanting more refugees. The Pirate voters are very divided on this. 25% wants either zero refugees or only the current quota of 50, while 25% wants to take more than 2000! So this question could potentially stem the Pirate craze since they have a very pro-refugee policy.
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politicus
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« Reply #602 on: September 07, 2015, 09:37:21 am »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 12:32:11 pm by politicus »

The poll is actually not that pro-refugees. Only 44.8% wants to take more than 250 refugees. So still a majority for taking significantly less than mainland Scandinavia (even if Iceland has around 150 spontaneous asylum seekers a yar to top that up). Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson has the most sceptical voters and has said nothing yet, but he also has more of the most pro-refugee voters than IP (Liberals and what you might call Christian ethics rurals) and this group is strong in some (rural) local chapters and overrepresented among his MPs.

52% of PP voters either wants no refugees (18%) or just the current number (34%), while 41% of IP voters do the same (12% none/29% current number).

Surprisingly PP in Reykjavik voted for taking more refugees btw (citing Christian principles), the only negative vote in the city council was an IP councillor who abstained.
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Gunnar Larsson
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« Reply #603 on: September 07, 2015, 10:32:36 am »

New Icelandic refugee poll:
http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/492-taep-90-vilja-taka-a-moti-flottamoennun-fra-syrlandi

How many Syrian war refugees should Iceland take in the next 12 months?

None 11.5
Max 50 19.4 (current quota)
Max 150 14.0
Max 250 10.7
Max 500 14.5 (government pro-refugee ministers estimate)
500-1000 9.0
1000-2000 6.5
More than 2000 14.8 (very high, 1600 is proportionally = Sweden)


Share that wants more than 2000:

BF 36%
Pirates 25%
LG 23%
SDA 19%
PP 7%
IP 2%


Share that wants none:

PP 18%
IP 12%
Pirates 10%
SDA 8%
LG 2%
BF 0%

So it seems BF is in accordance with their voters in wanting more refugees. The Pirate voters are very divided on this. 25% wants either zero refugees or only the current quota of 50, while 25% wants to take more than 2000! So this question could potentially stem the Pirate craze since they have a very pro-refugee policy.

To put the numbers in perspective, if Iceland had 33 million people, instead of 330 000, add two zeros, so the last option would correspond to more than 200 000 refugees. Also, the comparison with Sweden would be 1000, Sweden has 30 times the population of Iceland and had 30 000 Syrians refugees last year. I haven't seen any similar poll for any other country, but would guess that the numbers are fairly typical, or perhaps a bit more pro-refugee than other countries. I would interpret it as 30 % would like Iceland to receive no more refugees than the current level, 30-40 % would like a bit more and 30 % would like many more.

Would have been interesting if they had let those polled rank the importance of the question. I would guess that this would not be only issue in which pirate party voters can be found on both sides.

I am a bit surprised that the numbers for men and women are pretty similar, would assume that in general men are more anti-refugees. The age divide on other hand is fairly substantial..
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politicus
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« Reply #604 on: September 07, 2015, 11:03:01 am »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 11:41:30 am by politicus »

New Icelandic refugee poll:
http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/492-taep-90-vilja-taka-a-moti-flottamoennun-fra-syrlandi

How many Syrian war refugees should Iceland take in the next 12 months?

None 11.5
Max 50 19.4 (current quota)
Max 150 14.0
Max 250 10.7
Max 500 14.5 (government pro-refugee ministers estimate)
500-1000 9.0
1000-2000 6.5
More than 2000 14.8 (very high, 1600 is proportionally = Sweden)


Share that wants more than 2000:

BF 36%
Pirates 25%
LG 23%
SDA 19%
PP 7%
IP 2%


Share that wants none:

PP 18%
IP 12%
Pirates 10%
SDA 8%
LG 2%
BF 0%

So it seems BF is in accordance with their voters in wanting more refugees. The Pirate voters are very divided on this. 25% wants either zero refugees or only the current quota of 50, while 25% wants to take more than 2000! So this question could potentially stem the Pirate craze since they have a very pro-refugee policy.

To put the numbers in perspective, if Iceland had 33 million people, instead of 330 000, add two zeros, so the last option would correspond to more than 200 000 refugees. Also, the comparison with Sweden would be 1000, Sweden has 30 times the population of Iceland and had 30 000 Syrians refugees last year. I haven't seen any similar poll for any other country, but would guess that the numbers are fairly typical, or perhaps a bit more pro-refugee than other countries. I would interpret it as 30 % would like Iceland to receive no more refugees than the current level, 30-40 % would like a bit more and 30 % would like many more.

Would have been interesting if they had let those polled rank the importance of the question. I would guess that this would not be only issue in which pirate party voters can be found on both sides.

I am a bit surprised that the numbers for men and women are pretty similar, would assume that in general men are more anti-refugees. The age divide on other hand is fairly substantial..

Men are more anti-refugees in the poll "pretty similar" is an interpretation. Fx. 14% of men wants no refugees vs. only 9% of women.

I think your interpretation is flawed, you are lumping too many options together.

No refugees means no refugees, not keeping the current level. If you take seniors fx. there is a big group on 30% in favor of keeping the current level (more than any other group), while only 5% wants no refugees (lowest for any age group) - this is the generation where Christian ethics and "we have to help" norms are strong even among those that do not really like the thought of getting more foreigners in. While younger generations have higher numbers for zero refugees, but less support for the current level. It would be more legitimate to say zero in younger generations and I see no reason why zero doesn't mean zero when there is a current level option. It is more likely that there is a "shy zero" factor among the olds.

Pirate Party voters include a large chunk of low income voters and they are the most anti-refugee (by far), so that likely explains most of the split from the creative class/higher middle class progressives.

The 1600 figure is a comparison made by a Swedish journalist in Iceland I normally trust, and is not solely based on Syrians, but total number of refugees.
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Gunnar Larsson
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« Reply #605 on: September 07, 2015, 11:38:53 am »

New Icelandic refugee poll:
http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/492-taep-90-vilja-taka-a-moti-flottamoennun-fra-syrlandi

How many Syrian war refugees should Iceland take in the next 12 months?

None 11.5
Max 50 19.4 (current quota)
Max 150 14.0
Max 250 10.7
Max 500 14.5 (government pro-refugee ministers estimate)
500-1000 9.0
1000-2000 6.5
More than 2000 14.8 (very high, 1600 is proportionally = Sweden)

[..]

To put the numbers in perspective, if Iceland had 33 million people, instead of 330 000, add two zeros, so the last option would correspond to more than 200 000 refugees. Also, the comparison with Sweden would be 1000, Sweden has 30 times the population of Iceland and had 30 000 Syrians refugees last year. I haven't seen any similar poll for any other country, but would guess that the numbers are fairly typical, or perhaps a bit more pro-refugee than other countries. I would interpret it as 30 % would like Iceland to receive no more refugees than the current level, 30-40 % would like a bit more and 30 % would like many more.

Would have been interesting if they had let those polled rank the importance of the question. I would guess that this would not be only issue in which pirate party voters can be found on both sides.

I am a bit surprised that the numbers for men and women are pretty similar, would assume that in general men are more anti-refugees. The age divide on other hand is fairly substantial..

Men are more anti-refugees in the poll "pretty similar" is an interpretation. Fx. 14% of men wants no refugees vs. only 9% of women.

I think your interpretation is flawed, you are lumping too many options together.

No refugees means no refugees, not keeping the current level. If you take seniors fx. there is a big group on 30% in favor of keeping the current level (more than any other group), while only 5% wants no refugees (lowest for any age group) - this is the generation where Christian ethics and "we have to help" norms are strong even among those that do not really like the thought of getting more foreigners in. While younger generations have higher numbers for zero refugees, but less support for the current level. It would be more legitimate to say zero in younger generations and I see no reason why zero doesn't mean zero when there is a current level option. It is more likely that there is a "shy zero" factor among the olds.

Pirate Party voters include a large chunk of low income voters and they are the most anti-refugee (by far), so that likely explains most of the split from the creative class/higher middle class progressives.

The 1600 figure is a comparison made by a Swedish journalist in Iceland I normally trust, and is not solely based on Syrians.

Of course it is all a matter of interpretation. However, I am pretty sure that it is hard to find a country where the difference between men and women are less than in this poll. No matter how you look at it the cumulative numbers of pro- or against are never more than a few percent, compare that with the differences between different age groups!

Similarly with regards to lumping together the different alternatives. My point is, people do not general think in terms of exact numbers, but rather is it more or less than today. You could also argue that a ten-fold increase is not "a bit more".. Over all, a clear majority want to increase the number of refugees.

The 1000 figure is based on
http://scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Artiklar/Antalet-asylsokande-okar-for-tredje-aret-i-rad/ + population numbers, i.e. official statistics.
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« Reply #606 on: September 07, 2015, 12:02:47 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 12:20:09 pm by politicus »

LLR now gives up sending Syrian refugees in Denmark back to Germany - and recognize the Dublin convention is de facto defunct by now and that "the European asylum system has collapsed".

DPP demands three things to accept this:

1) Reintroduction of border control.

2) That refugees be housed in state run refugee centers until they can return.

3) More aid to refugee producing areas (that development aid be moved from Asia to Africa).
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« Reply #607 on: September 07, 2015, 12:19:24 pm »

LLR is also now in favor of "a common EU solution" despite his previous resistance to a common European refugee policy. Even if such a solution will not formally mean Denmark entering a common policy, it will de facto do so.
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« Reply #608 on: September 07, 2015, 01:13:28 pm »

DPP demands three things to accept this:

1) Reintroduction of border control.

2) That refugees be housed in state run refugee centers until they can return.

3) More aid to refugee producing areas (that development aid be moved from Asia to Africa).
Is this going to happen?
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« Reply #609 on: September 07, 2015, 01:20:46 pm »

DPP demands three things to accept this:

1) Reintroduction of border control.

2) That refugees be housed in state run refugee centers until they can return.

3) More aid to refugee producing areas (that development aid be moved from Asia to Africa).
Is this going to happen?

The shift from Asia to Africa is. I expect the rest will as well. He can't really afford to cross DPP in the middle of a turnaround on refugee policy (after de facto having promised fewer refugees during the election campaign).
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« Reply #610 on: September 07, 2015, 01:42:50 pm »

Good. I'm getting tired of Morten Messerschmidt's "Grænsekontrol nu!!!!!!!!" Facebook posts popping up in my news feed ten times a day Tongue This will get Denmark new sh*t with the EU, but every guy on the street could have anticipated the demand for border controls in any coalition with DF anyway.
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« Reply #611 on: September 07, 2015, 01:49:21 pm »

I personal expect that 2 won't happen (the Syrian refugees will never go home), but DPP will get something which make it look like a victory for them. As for increased border control this time I doubt it will get us in problems with EU, for three reasons; one is that border control is allowed in crisis, two is that Merkel have put Denmark in this situation and Denmark support her on some other points, so she won't complain, three is that this border control will likely be more intelligent than the last time., where it was meant to give Thorning trouble after she was elected.
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« Reply #612 on: September 07, 2015, 01:53:13 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 01:56:13 pm by DavidB. »

Interesting points Smiley

I suppose there will also be border control at the Øresund bridge, or is it only for the border crossings with Germany? Seems like Kjaersgaard is getting her way after all these years...
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« Reply #613 on: September 07, 2015, 02:00:18 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 02:07:29 pm by politicus »

I personal expect that 2 won't happen (the Syrian refugees will never go home), but DPP will get something which make it look like a victory for them.

That does not mean you can not put them in state run centers - outside of the normal refugee system - to begin with. So I am not so sure on that.

You could potentially also make a deal with the Greenlandic government about setting up asylum centers in abandoned settlements, or something similar. They are strapped for cash and might be willing to do it (even if Greenlanders generally hate the idea of being a "penal colony"). Kim Kielsen is a pragmatic guy - unlike Hammond.

DPP will need something that signals: "Those people will never be integrated in Danish society". Anything else will basically mean the rise of Danish Unity and a potential split by elements on the DPP right wing. They are already unhappy with the leadership moderating.
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« Reply #614 on: September 07, 2015, 02:04:18 pm »

If they only announce that they will send Syrian refugees to Greenland they will probably not even need border control anymore Cheesy Germany it is...
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« Reply #615 on: September 07, 2015, 02:16:21 pm »

Interesting points Smiley

I suppose there will also be border control at the Öresund bridge, or is it only for the border crossings with Germany? Seems like Kjaersgaard is getting her way after all these years...

There won't be at the Øresund Bridge, unless the Swedes set it up. Her comment about closing the Øresund Bridge some years back was not a joke, but humorous in nature. Let's remember that it was her who some years back, after a this citat by Mona Sahlin...

Quote
Jag har ofta fått den frågan men jag kan inte komma på vad svensk kultur är. Jag tror att det är lite det som gör många svenskar så avundsjuka på invandrargrupper. Ni har en kultur, en identitet, en historia, någonting som binder ihop er. Och vad har vi? Vi har midsommarafton och sådana ”töntiga” sake

(I have often been asked, but I can not think of what Swedish culture is. I think it's the little things that make many Swedes so envious of immigrant groups. You have a culture, an identity, a history, something that binds you. And what do we have? We have Midsummer Eve and such "cheesy" things)


...decided to make a speech where she said began mention a whole lot of good aspect about Sweden, and you know you have said some very stupid things about Swedish culture, when a Danish nationalist leader begins to defend Swedish culture.
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« Reply #616 on: September 07, 2015, 02:22:28 pm »

I personal expect that 2 won't happen (the Syrian refugees will never go home), but DPP will get something which make it look like a victory for them.

That does not mean you can not put them in state run centers - outside of the normal refugee system - to begin with. So I am not so sure on that.

You could potentially also make a deal with the Greenlandic government about setting up asylum centers in abandoned settlements, or something similar. They are strapped for cash and might be willing to do it (even if Greenlanders generally hate the idea of being a "penal colony"). Kim Kielsen is a pragmatic guy - unlike Hammond.

DPP will need something that signals: "Those people will never be integrated in Danish society". Anything else will basically mean the rise of Danish Unity and a potential split by elements on the DPP right wing. They are already unhappy with the leadership moderating.

I don't think that's a problem, while polls show that a significant want someone more hardline that DPP, I have a hard see a successful split off, like it or not DPP have become mainstream, and few are willing to vote for the kind of anarchists who likely happen if we see a split from DPP, and Danish Unity while I can see the potential threat from them, I think they lack something to ever rise, they're too unpragmatic to ever create a real alternative to DPP, and I doubt they will welcome the kind of people who leave DPP.
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« Reply #617 on: September 07, 2015, 02:26:26 pm »

I understand that her comment regarding an Øresund barrier wasn't entirely seriously, even though the idea of border control at this crossing isn't that strange, I guess.

Holy hell @ Sahlin's statement. Our Queen Máxima, originally from Argentina, said something similar when she was still a princess. It wasn't appreciated. Nonetheless, there might be some truth in it, even though I thoroughly appreciate Kjaersgaard's attempt to refute her claim. However, in my opinion, the very lack of a distinct Dutch/Swedish/[insert Western European country]ish identity stems from the ongoing war against these countries' traditions that has, especially in Northern Europe, mainly been waged by... social democrats, which is why Sahlin should probably be more ashamed than Máxima. I don't think this would have been an issue 50 years ago.
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« Reply #618 on: September 07, 2015, 02:37:49 pm »

I understand that her comment regarding an Øresund barrier wasn't entirely seriously, even though the idea of border control at this crossing isn't that strange, I guess.

Holy hell @ Sahlin's statement. Our Queen Máxima, originally from Argentina, said something similar when she was still a princess. It wasn't appreciated. Nonetheless, there might be some truth in it, even though I thoroughly appreciate Kjaersgaard's attempt to refute her claim. However, in my opinion, the very lack of a distinct Dutch/Swedish/[insert Western European country]ish identity stems from the ongoing war against these countries' traditions that has, especially in Northern Europe, mainly been waged by... social democrats, which is why Sahlin should probably be more ashamed than Máxima. I don't think this would have been an issue 50 years ago.

The Swedes do have a clear identity, culture, history etc which bind them together, through sometimes seem there's a Kulturkampf to destroy those things, just as there is in Denmark and all other countries. Of course such Kulturkampf exist all over the world and is natural, what's unique in Sweden and why people like Mona Sahlin will lose that battle is that while she tries redefine Swedish identity and culture, she deny that any such exist. When you choose that kind of battle you will always lose, because no one like that obnoxious and clueless elitists say they don't have any identity or culture.
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« Reply #619 on: September 07, 2015, 03:39:39 pm »

Honestly, I find all this talk of "cultural identity" frivolous to offensive. What is Swedish culture? Swedish culture is probably 90% the same as culture in any other rich country, they watch the Avengers and eat McDonalds like everyone else. Sure, they also like terrible fish shaped candy and terrible rotten canned fish and they like synths slightly more than is usual. None of that is ultimately that important though. If that's all that was under threat from immigration, I don't think anyone would care and rightly so. The main danger with immigration is that it will lead to cuts in welfare and a decline in living standards.

Even issues like homophobia and misogyny, which are linked to culture, if you could someone take those things out of Arab and African culture, what's left would be harmless.   
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« Reply #620 on: September 07, 2015, 03:53:08 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 03:56:36 pm by politicus »

Honestly, I find all this talk of "cultural identity" frivolous to offensive. What is Swedish culture? Swedish culture is probably 90% the same as culture in any other rich country, they watch the Avengers and eat McDonalds like everyone else. Sure, they also like terrible fish shaped candy and terrible rotten canned fish and they like synths slightly more than is usual. None of that is ultimately that important though. If that's all that was under threat from immigration, I don't think anyone would care and rightly so. The main danger with immigration is that it will lead to cuts in welfare and a decline in living standards.

Even issues like homophobia and misogyny, which are linked to culture, if you could someone take those things out of Arab and African culture, what's left would be harmless.  

You have said that before, and it is a very American way of looking at things, that is not really politically relevant in Europe.

There are many things you can not make a 100% clear definition of, such as love and music, but we all know they exist anyway. That is the way most Danes or Swedes etc. have it with our national culture. We can not define it, but we know more or less what we are talking about and are attached to it (that is true for even those that deny they are).

Basically if you want to understand Europe you need to recognize that the cultural roots are deeper than in the more floating and changeable American culture.

Scandinavian societies are also build on a very high level of social trust, which gives us a lot of advantages and makes things run smoothly, and this is mostly based on cultural homogeneity. So to maintain it require either assimilation of immigrants or high (or rather deep) level of integration (on the level of our Jewish minorities).
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« Reply #621 on: September 07, 2015, 03:58:29 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2015, 04:00:45 pm by DavidB. »

Honestly, I find all this talk of "cultural identity" frivolous to offensive. What is Swedish culture? Swedish culture is probably 90% the same as culture in any other rich country, they watch the Avengers and eat McDonalds like everyone else.
Yes, before Americans spread their cultural contributions to Europe, of which McDonalds' haute cuisine and the Avengers are marvellous examples, we Europeans lived in a state of utter darkness and barbarism Roll Eyes

None of that is ultimately that important though.  
Who are you to decide? If it weren't European cultures you were talking about, this would be deemed highly offensive. Let's be clear, I don't care so much, but I'd like you to be aware of that.
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« Reply #622 on: September 07, 2015, 04:04:53 pm »

Well "culture" is all fluid and constantly changing. European culture is dynamic enough to survive in a changed form. This isn't like the Native Americans or Abroginals Australians, whose culture was obliterated along with them.
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« Reply #623 on: September 07, 2015, 04:05:24 pm »

It's not really an American way of looking at things. America very much has its own culture, probably a stronger more defined culture than anywhere in Europe, because it doesn't get as many outside influences. It's a culture of country music, Protestant Christianity, fried food, guns, and showy nationalism. I'm over it though. Most people who go to college are over it. I'm frankly surprised there are any educated people who aren't over their own petty local culture.

At first I figured you guys were just using this language as an argument tactic, like obviously everyone who is in favor of immigration thinks that Islamic culture is great, so you can pull the rug out from under them by forcing them to admit that Danish or Swedish culture or whatever must be great too.

If you really believe this stuff though, it's just weird. You sound like Edmund Stoiber dancing to polka music in lederhosen while most other people are living in the city like it's the 21st century.
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« Reply #624 on: September 07, 2015, 04:07:59 pm »

Wow the cluelessness is astonishing.
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