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  The Great Nordic Thread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1Iceland, but not Norway  
#2Norway, but not Iceland  
#3Both  
#4None of them  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 153

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 152057 times)
Lurker
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« on: April 18, 2013, 03:40:50 pm »
« edited: April 18, 2013, 03:42:47 pm by Lurker »

Actually, Rødt/ the Red Party hasn't increased their share of the vote at all. Their polling average for last month is at exactly the same as their 2009 result - 1,3%. The reason why some polls are showing them as getting one MP, must be due to them getting/polling slightly more votes  in a county (probably Oslo) where they could win a seat and losing votes in other places, thus getting fewer "wasted" votes.
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Lurker
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2013, 11:59:45 am »
« Edited: April 22, 2013, 12:12:15 pm by Lurker »

It can also be noted that for the past 40 years, only one representative from a party to SV's left has been elected to the Norwegian parliament - Rødt's ,then called RV, Erling Folkvord in '93.   One of many reasons for this is that SV  contains large ideological differences, from semi-social democrats to extreme leftists. This electoral history doesn't bode very well for Rødt's chances at establishing themselves as a credble alternative on the left (even though you would have expected their chances to improve with SV's years in government.)

A big problem for the the Party IMO (beside the obvious) is that  they have no prominent  or charismatic politicians  at the national level - no Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, to make a comparison with Denmark (she incidentally seems to be one of their big idols these days). I doubt that anyone from Rødt's leadership would have a name recognition of more than 4-5% at most, and outside of Klassekampen they are pretty invisible in the media.
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Lurker
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2013, 05:22:02 pm »

Does the Conservative Party still have a relevant role to play in Danish politics, or are they just a junior partner to Venstre? With the two parties being so simillar, aren't the Conservatives a bit 'redundant' nowadays?
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Lurker
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2013, 03:40:29 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2013, 03:51:44 pm by Lurker »

The Progress Party (FrP) have just had their annual national convention. The party is of course trying to prepare for government, but they have been hit by some negative news in the past week (not that this will have much influence on the polls)

First of all, party leader Siv Jensen has launched a strong attack on The Norwegian Model.  She claims that it is not fit for our time, and should be replaced by a new model - called the Frp model, fittingly. Tongue She has been criticized for this, even by the other Bourgeois parties. Unfortunately, it seems that she has little idea what the concept of a "Norwegian model" actually entails.

Most interestingly though, is the debate in the party on climate change - which have not been as fierce as the ones on Atlas, unfortunately. The party leadership has partly come around on the issue, and has made statements to the effect that humans does have a significant effect on the climate. However, climate change denial is still by far the prevailing view of the base of the party, and also amongst their politicians. There was a very interesting survey that showed how elected politicians of the various parties viewed the concept of human-caused climate change: http://www.ba.no/nyheter/article6671225.ece
It turns out that 9/10 FrP officials reject the concept. SV has the highest agreement, with 96% thinkin that climate change is caused by humans.
Venstre: 87% agrees.
Høyre: 50% agrees.
Arbeiderpartiet: 72% agrees.
Krf: 73% agrees.
Senterpartiet: 69% agrees.

Very interesting, IMO. I wonder what the equivalent figures would be in the other Scandinavian/Nordic countries?
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Lurker
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2013, 06:36:45 pm »

I see now that my wording in the last post might have been unintentionally misleading: the survey was of elected local politicians of the various parties, not MPs and prominent "national" politicians. I suspect that a survey of national politicians would show a much higher belief in AGW. Both due to higher educational levels, and that a national politician who don't believe in climate change would be more hesitant to state his true beliefs in fear of the consequenses.
- amongst FrP's national politicians though, I suspect there would still be a clear denier/sceptic majority.

The local politicians views are very close to the views of the parties' respective voters, IMO - at least the numbers fit pretty well with what has been my impression of their "bases".
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Lurker
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2013, 06:24:18 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2013, 06:27:33 am by Lurker »

Just to make sure I get this, how broad is the concept of the "Norwegian model"?

In Denmark we use "the Danish model" for the way our labour market is organized with employer and employee organizations negotiating agreements that are valid for everybody, a complicated labour market legal system with mediators and a labour court etc. + the government plaing a small role.

Is the Norwegian model used in the same narrow way or is it about the entire way Norwegian society is organized?

That description sounds very simillar to how "The Norwegian Model" (or "the Nordic model", for that matter) is used, though the term of course is open to interpretation, as these last days have shown. I think most people would agree that a universal welfare state, with a strong safety net, is a vital part of the "model".

You might enjoy this interview, where Jensen tries to explain what this debate is all about - Unfortunately, it is not exactly illuminating:
http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/valg-2013/artikkel.php?artid=10116928
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Lurker
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2013, 03:16:36 pm »

The decline and imminent fall of Gucci Helle has been a truly depressing sight. Going 2 miss u bb.

While her polling is indeed terrible, I think people are still to early in concluding that the right-wing will win the next Danish general election - though obviously they are heavy favourites. Keep in mind, there are over 2 years until the PM needs to call an election. A lot can happen in that time.
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Lurker
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« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2013, 07:08:39 pm »

He was the leading voice in the successful campaign against the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 with his famous slogan "Holger og konen siger nej til unionen (Holger and his wife say no to the union)", it rhimes in Danish Wink

Though presumably only to the highly limited extent that anything can rhyme in Danish... Tongue

What is this Danish you speak off? I think you mean the sound of choking on too much food in your mouth. 

I recommend this brilliant clip, from the Norwegian comedy show Ut i vår hage. It pretty much tells you all you need to know about the state of the Danish language. (Almost entirely in English, so can be viewed by our non-Nordic friends as well). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-mOy8VUEBk
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Lurker
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2013, 06:04:27 am »

He was the leading voice in the successful campaign against the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 with his famous slogan "Holger og konen siger nej til unionen (Holger and his wife say no to the union)", it rhimes in Danish Wink

Though presumably only to the highly limited extent that anything can rhyme in Danish... Tongue

What is this Danish you speak off? I think you mean the sound of choking on too much food in your mouth. 

I recommend this brilliant clip, from the Norwegian comedy show Ut i vår hage. It pretty much tells you all you need to know about the state of the Danish language. (Almost entirely in English, so can be viewed by our non-Nordic friends as well). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-mOy8VUEBk

And perhaps even more about the state of the Norwegian humour Wink

Ouch. Tongue

In our defense, while there are many terrible Norwegians comedians, Eia/Tufte are often pretty good.

Of course, the comments section on that page is far funnier than the clip itself (as tends to be the case on youtube).
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Lurker
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2013, 11:20:30 am »
« Edited: December 18, 2013, 11:29:18 am by Lurker »

First Gentleman of Denmark, Stephen Kinnock is thinking of running for the UK parliament in the Aberavon constituency, a historically ultra-safe Labour seat where the incumbent is retiring.

Interesting timing: elections due in both the UK and Denmark in 2015 (probably sooner for Denmark). Maybe the couple have got Helle down as a one-term wonder.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/12/17/helle-thorning-schmidt-stephen-kinnock_n_4461847.html

Nah, not unless the polls change further in the government's favour. Early elections are rarely called if a government is trailing badly.

As for the last sentence in your post, I think that's probably correct. Though they have apparently often been a "long-distance" couple, so even if HTS were to win, it might not be much of a problem.
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Lurker
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2014, 05:27:51 pm »
« Edited: February 01, 2014, 05:29:56 pm by Lurker »

Why is there such poor "party loyalty" amongst Danish politicians? Seems like relatively prominent ones switch between the various parties in Folketinget all the time. That kind of stuff hardly ever happens elsewhere in Scandinavia.
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Lurker
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2014, 03:50:01 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2014, 03:53:09 pm by Lurker »

NATO's next Secretary General may be another Scandinavian, at least if we are to believe the Norwegian media. Apparently, Labour Party leader Jens Stoltenberg is the favorite to succeed Fogh Rasmussen, who is stepping down this year.
Obama is said to have recommended him for the post, according to the reports.

Nothing have been decided yet of course, but Stoltenberg is clearly interested in the position. If he does get this job, the Labour party will have to choose a new leader. The overwhelming favorite is Jonas Gahr Støre (54), who has served as both Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Health in the Stoltenberg II cabinet. Støre's background is somewhat unusual for a party leader: He is considered to be part of the Labour Party "right", like Stoltenberg, only joined the Labour Party in his mid 30's, and comes from a wealthy upper class family. Despite, this he apparently has strong support amongst all factions in the Labour Party, and no realistic challengers exist.

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Lurker
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2014, 06:22:30 pm »

Indeed. I think I have read somewhere that Støre was a supporter (maybe even a member) of Høyre when he was a young man. Støre is a great choice for AP. They will need him to attract the educated and urban middle class that is crucial to their electoral fortunes in 2017.
I was happy to see Stoltenberg leave as prime minister, but I think he could do a great job as NATOs Secretary General. He is obviously a very able man. Not to mention how Norway probably is one of the most enthusiastic and pro-American of the NATO-countries (Norwegian fighter aircrafts delivered about 25 % of the bombs dropped over Libya during the intervention there).

Yes, that's true about Støre. There was a story about his background in Høyre a few years back. http://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/2008/09/17/547220.html

He doesn't seem to ever have been an active member of the party (guess it would have said if he was), but he did have talks with Kåre Willoch about working for him in 1987. In the end, Støre was offered the job but did not take it (for whatever reasons - Støre in 2008 said it was because he, deep down, felt he did not belong in Høyre, but that could well be spin of course).

 
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Lurker
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2014, 04:24:35 pm »

First Danish poll (from Gallup) after Lars Løkkes survival is quite good for the Liberals - all things considered. Its a Liberal-SD tie with DPP not far behind, but it looks like their Euro-wave might be declining.

The government and left wing is at 46,1% combined, while the centre-right is at 52,6% (or 53,3% if you include the Christian Democrats).

Its the first poll in a very long time where SF/SPP is above the Red-Greens. Actually SF is now only 1,1% below the election result. If SF survives the "getting into government and out again"-experience without losing voters this will be a major triumph for new SF-leader Pia Olsen Dyhr.

Conservatives and Liberal Alliance have been unable to profit from the Liberal crisis, which shows just how far the Conservatives are from their previous status as one of the two big centre-right parties. Since there is virtually no ideological difference between Cons and Libs these days, it should have been possible for them to capture at least 2-3 percentage points of critical Liberal voters.


SD: 22,4%

Social Liberals: 8,7%

Conservatives: 5,5%

SPP: 7,9%

Liberal Alliance 4,3%

Christian Democrats 0,7%

DPP: 20,9%

Liberals : 21,9%

Red-Greens: 7,1%

Where would you place Liberal Alliance? Isn't this the most right-wing party economically, despite having (some of) its "roots" in Radikale Venstre? Are LA interested in joining a centre-right govt after the next election?
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Lurker
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2014, 11:54:23 am »

A 36-year-old prime minister would be pretty damn impressive. Would probably be the youngest Head of Government of a democratic country?

Her quotes about private schools does make her a massive hypocrite though. It's stuff like that which leads to contempt for politicians. She seems to want one set of rule for herself and another set for everyone else.
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Lurker
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2014, 05:26:49 am »

Has there ever been any kind of serious discussion about a merger between the Conservatives and Venstre, in the parties themselves?
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Lurker
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2014, 04:56:47 am »

There's also another aspect to consider - as far as "old guard" is concerned - that Nordic politicians are generally much younger than their American counterparts. Relatively few stay in top-level politics after the normal retirement age, and many leave long before that.
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Lurker
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« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2015, 09:56:55 am »

Latest Norwegian poll from Norstat:

Centre Party 5.9
Greens 4.3
Labour 41.7    
Socialist Left 2.6
Red 1.8

Liberals 3.8
Christian Democrats 6.5
Conservatives 22.3
Progress Party 10.0

Others 1.1

Norway is starting to resemble Iceland in that the centre-right government seems stuck on a 30%+ level with no ability to bounce back (and after a populist party called the Progress Party has collapsed). Socialist Left below the threshold in the seventh poll in a row, but the Greens above. Liberals also just below 4%.

The thing that should worry Labour and the centre-left, as far as the 2017 general election is concerned, is the possibility of a significant numbers of "wasted" left-wing votes. If the results of this Norstat poll was only slightly altered, for instance, it could mean that over 8% of the vote would og to left(ish) parties below the treshold. And the recent introduction of a Norwegian Feministisk Initiativ could make this problem even worse, even if it's doubtful that they could get a significant share of the vote.

Of course, I realize that this is getting ahead of myself, and that the political landscape might have changed completely by 2017.
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Lurker
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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2015, 03:09:22 pm »

Maybe, though it's of course impossible to tell - few would have predicted that the Greens could surpass SV in polls in the first place. I would imagine that they could have the potential of someday reaching the heights of, say, their Swedish sister party. If this were to happen though, I feel they need to have more prominent spokesmen (the Norwegians Greens are still a tiny organization, despite strong growth, and only one of their leading politicians is a somewhat well-known figure nationally).

Furthermore, they might also need to reinvent themselves as less of a "one-issue party", if they are to "replace" SV's position in  Norwegian politics. It should also be noted - though you probably know this - that the Greens have been very careful not to align themselves with either bloc, even saying that they could potentially support a Conservative government. A clearer alignment with the red-green bloc might increase their chances of gaining a prominent position on the left (doing so would of course diminish their chances of winning votes from the centre-right, but I would assume that the vast majority of their support have been "stolen" from the left-wing parties at any rate).
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Lurker
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« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2016, 07:12:53 am »

The Social Democrats voted for this? Wow.

Shouldn't be that surprising. During the 2015 general election, their campaign posters featured slogans like "Stramme asylregler og flere krav til indvandrere". (Strict rules for asylum and more demands for immigrants, too translate it a bit awkwardly.)

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