MA-PPP: Warren leads by 5

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Key finding: among voters undecided in the senate race, Obama leads Romney 66-15.

Yeah, there's just no way that I can realistically see Brown winning in November.

How is that? He won just a couple of years ago. And I don't watch this board as closely as lots of people do, but he's been leading every other poll I've seen lately? I'd say he's favored.

Demographics tend to be more accurate than polls, especially this far out.

How is this a question of demographics? 

Partisan demographics are demographics too.

Hasn't changed that much since 2009 has it? Or do you mean differences in turnout?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Key finding: among voters undecided in the senate race, Obama leads Romney 66-15.

Yeah, there's just no way that I can realistically see Brown winning in November.

How is that? He won just a couple of years ago. And I don't watch this board as closely as lots of people do, but he's been leading every other poll I've seen lately? I'd say he's favored.

Demographics tend to be more accurate than polls, especially this far out.

How is this a question of demographics? 

Partisan demographics are demographics too.

Hasn't changed that much since 2009 has it? Or do you mean differences in turnout?

Presumably he's anticipating turnout in certain Democratic areas such as the Merrimack Valley and South Coast to be higher than it was in early 2010, which I think is reasonable.

[colincb]

In Massachusetts, Dem turnout in a presidential election should be > Dem turnout in a non-presidential election SB > Dem turnout in a special election which is what Brown won.  Expect 800,000+ more voters from predominately Democratic urban areas in 2012.  Obama's going to win MA by 20-25% and possibly more, the Dems are going to win all 10 CDs barring an unforeseen upset, and it's tough to see enough vote-splitting for Brown to win especially since Warren is a better candidate than Moakley from what I've seen so far.

[Brittain33]

Yep, Brown needs tons of ticket-splitting to win. Turnout in the special election was very high but he still got about the same absolute number of votes as McCain got a year earlier when he lost by a big margin to Obama. There aren't a lot of people who didn't vote for Brown in that election who are going to vote for him this time.