Is Pennsylvania "in play"..?

[zachman]

Few here are enthused by Bush, and the Kerry smear campaign hasn't worked here. I did overexagerate though, Bush should probably spend here until its clear he'll lose here.  Its the equivelent of Kerry spending in Washington.

[WalterMitty]

as ive pointed out before, new hampshire is a right wing state.  

pat buchanan can attest to that.

[© tweed]

as ive pointed out before, new hampshire is a right wing state.  

pat buchanan can attest to that.

but it is trending Dem...after going GOP every time 1968-1988, it is coming to us.

[Kghadial]

as ive pointed out before, new hampshire is a right wing state.  

pat buchanan can attest to that.

but it is trending Dem...after going GOP every time 1968-1988, it is coming to us.

I don't think the fact that it went republican from 68-96 means anything. We (dems) have only won once in that time period (Carter '76)  and that was the last gasp of the Democratic South.

However I would agree that has become more democratic. Simply because the national parties are becoming more and more  south versus north. New Hampshire may be a republican state, but those republicans are often apt to be the sort of old school Republicans of the Hoover/Dewey type.  The party has moved away from them. The question is if they will respond like southern dems have when the same thing happened to them.

That is why the republicans have been so succesful since 68. They have been able to cause southern dems to vote republican and keep northern republicans (and R leaners) from voting democratic. Clinton (and to a much lesser degree, Gore) was able to convince northern republicans to vote for him, vote for Perot, or stay at home.

I think Kerry can pull off convincing NH republicans , since they won't be put off by his new england self. Real question is if he can do the same thing to enough Pennsylvania republicans to get the state.

[zachman]

Its more of a partisan republican state, but Bush is seen as a fool here. In terms of social issues we are mostly libertarian, and on economic issues we are anti-tax and therefore Republican. The state is growing and most of that migration is coming from the rest of New England. We are definitely trending democratic.

[classical liberal]

The GOP has managed to take the conservative Dems and keep the liberal Reps.  I think that this year will be the "last gasp" of the Republican north.  Lincoln won with roughly the same states that Gore won, but liberal Republicans in IN and OH went with party over ideology, and NJ, DE, and MD dems already switched to being the liberal party.  That won't happen again after this year.

Also, suburbia has been trending liberal.  After being conservative strongholds for much of the late 20th century, the affluent suburbs are trending Dem.  Howard County, MD and DeKalb County, GA from '64-'88 are good examples of this trend.  I'm predicting a 5% shift from GOP to Dem in the formerly conservative suburbs this year, and another 5% in '08.

[The Vorlon]

Is your prediction map based on your personal opinions, or is is some sort of formula based on polls/results/voter reg, etc.?  

Yes... ,,,:)

actually, a moderately complex model, takes 2000 results, factors in state trends, plus changes in voter registration, then overlays in projected national popular vote.

[Rococo4]

Is your prediction map based on your personal opinions, or is is some sort of formula based on polls/results/voter reg, etc.?  

Yes... ,,,:)

actually, a moderately complex model, takes 2000 results, factors in state trends, plus changes in voter registration, then overlays in projected national popular vote.

I like your current map....looks good.  though I think NM will flop to the Republicans.  I see PA , NM and NM switching to Rep with NH going Dem

[ian]

Much to my own surprise, when I did my weekly prediction map update, I have (oh so marginally) swung Pennsylvania into the Bush column.  This, along with moving Washington State from Lean Kerry to Solid Kerry, were my only two changes.

There have been 7 polls I could find on Pennsylvania in the past 5 weeks, showing anything from Kerry +2 to Bush +4.  Most telling, however, is the shift in voter registration.  Since 2000, the state has gone from a modest +4 Democratic advantage in registrations to essentially parity.  Given that Gore won by just a tad over 4%, it is clear that Pennsylvania should be a barn burner..


[

I freely admit how close Pennsylvania is surprises me, I had expected Kerry to be able to run a fairly modest campaign to hold the keystone state - I was thinking Kerry +5 or 6 initially..

To the degree that the playing field gets bigger, this certainly hurts Kerry in the sense that McCain/Feingold has hurt the Democrats far more the the GOP, and the Bush cash advantage, in practical terms, is far larger in 2004 than it was in 2000.

Does anybody else have any states that they think are a "surprise" this time around, and why...?

Thank you for putting Arkansas as making a significant change to the correct side.  We're goin' Kerry!!!

[ian]

Setyourselfonfire stated: "I live in Blue Earth County, in south central Minnesota. It voted for Bush rather marginally in 2000, with Nader taking 6%, more than twice of Gore's margin of loss. The sentiment here has moved to definately being more anti-Bush. The economic conditions in the outstate areas, especially the northwest, have gotten far worse, and this will definately hurt Bush. I think too many people overestimate the signs of the 2002 elections, since not a single Republican in a statewide race got over 50% of the vote. Only Attorney General Mike Hatch, a Democrat did with 54%. What I think happened is the media making a mountain out of a molehill with the Wellstone Memorial increased GOP turnout tilting some marginal races. The biggest issue though I think, is the Nader factor. Nader got 5% here in 2000, and he definately won't be doing that well this year. Also, the voters in suburban Hennepin and Ramsey counties are like the voters in suburban PA, NJ and NY, and while they voted very marginally for Bush in 2000, I think it'll flip and they'll vote for Kerry now because of Bush moving too far to the right on social issues. The most recent poll showed Bush: 41, Kerry: 43. Doesn't look like a resounding lead for Kerry, but keep these things in mind:
1) Undecideds break 2:1 against the incumbent
2) That was long before Kerry started campaigning here for Super Tuesday.
41 is a very weak showing for an incumbent, so I think it would closer to Kerry: 47, Bush: 42 if polled today. So I would have the state as leaning Kerry, although the GOP's going to try to win here and I'll have to put up with their nonsense. "

These are the most interesting posts.  I love hearing takes on things from a local.  We should have more of these.  *hint, hint*

[opebo]

Much to my own surprise, when I did my weekly prediction map update, I have (oh so marginally) swung Pennsylvania into the Bush column.  This, along with moving Washington State from Lean Kerry to Solid Kerry, were my only two changes.

There have been 7 polls I could find on Pennsylvania in the past 5 weeks, showing anything from Kerry +2 to Bush +4.  Most telling, however, is the shift in voter registration.  Since 2000, the state has gone from a modest +4 Democratic advantage in registrations to essentially parity.  Given that Gore won by just a tad over 4%, it is clear that Pennsylvania should be a barn burner..


[

I freely admit how close Pennsylvania is surprises me, I had expected Kerry to be able to run a fairly modest campaign to hold the keystone state - I was thinking Kerry +5 or 6 initially..

To the degree that the playing field gets bigger, this certainly hurts Kerry in the sense that McCain/Feingold has hurt the Democrats far more the the GOP, and the Bush cash advantage, in practical terms, is far larger in 2004 than it was in 2000.

Does anybody else have any states that they think are a "surprise" this time around, and why...?

Thank you for putting Arkansas as making a significant change to the correct side.  We're goin' Kerry!!!

I'm pretty sure those figures show Arkansas moving to the right with growing GOP membership and declining Dem.  So the state is in no danger of going for Kerry.

[TeePee4Prez]

A view from a Pennsylvanian...  I think PA will go Kerry by a 55-45 margin.  Though this will be a close election.  Suburban voters feel threatened with their jobs too and are socially liberal on most issues.  A lot of the socially conservative elderly voters in NE Philly will go Dem because of Medicare and Social Security.  Also, NE and SW Penn has been suffering from job losses.  Only the sparse valleys in Central PA will go GOP.  

[CTguy]

The Republicans have no chance of winning PA.  A few republicans on this site from PA have been hyping PA up to make their state sound exotic when in fact it's just a state filled with geriatrics that want their social security and are going to vote for Kerry even if Jesus comes down from the sky and endorses Bush as many Republicans believe he will.  Ahahaha.

[TeePee4Prez]

The Republicans have no chance of winning PA.  A few republicans on this site from PA have been hyping PA up to make their state sound exotic when in fact it's just a state filled with geriatrics that want their social security and are going to vote for Kerry even if Jesus comes down from the sky and endorses Bush as many Republicans believe he will.  Ahahaha.

Truth be told, I was actually undecided in 2000.  Now I'm voting Kerry with no going back.  I found even some Dems thought Gore was weak and he still won by 4 pts.  I'm looking between 6+ and 13+ Kerry for PA.  The right wing Pennsylvanians are probably gun nuts from the sticks in some desolate valley I never heard of.

[klrbzzz]

Pennsylvania is in play like a ball out-of-bounds.  I have already painted PA red.

[Ben.]

Pennsylvania is in play like a ball out-of-bounds.  I have already painted PA red.

I think PA leans as far to the Dems if not more so than it did in 2000, and remember this time last year Bush had a eight piont lead in PA and whent on to lose it by 4.7%... but as in 2000 it iwll take alot of "shoe leather" and money but we should win the state...by about the same margin as in 2000...

[Rococo4]

I think it is in play for now....a little early to say a state like PA is out of play (you can say that for some states like Vermont or Utah)

voter registration is about even between the parties , so we'll see what happens.  Admitedly F. Kerry is favored in PA right now, but there is a ton of time between now and Nov. 2.  It is crazy for anyone to think a state like PA is already decided.

[Ben.]

I think it is in play for now....a little early to say a state like PA is out of play (you can say that for some states like Vermont or Utah)

voter registration is about even between the parties , so we'll see what happens.  Admitedly F. Kerry is favored in PA right now, but there is a ton of time between now and Nov. 2.  It is crazy for anyone to think a state like PA is already decided.

It certainly is not decided but in the end I would say that Kerry will win there as in the end I think Bush will win Florida and Missouri IMHO…

[CTguy]

I think it is in play for now....a little early to say a state like PA is out of play (you can say that for some states like Vermont or Utah)

voter registration is about even between the parties , so we'll see what happens.  Admitedly F. Kerry is favored in PA right now, but there is a ton of time between now and Nov. 2.  It is crazy for anyone to think a state like PA is already decided.

Voter registration doesn't really matter, do you know that democrats have a voter registration advantage in almost every southern state and until a few years ago Republicans had an advantage in most New England states.

Kerry will win PA by nearly a 10 point margin and if the Republicans don't get their act together and end up nominating that right wing freak instead of Specter they will lose their senate seat too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

my friend in Pennsylvania is reregistering as a Republican to vote for Toomey in the primary. There is no way both Toomey and Kerry will win Pennsylvania, and Kerry's going to win it. The only reason Santorum won is because his opponent was a pro-life/pro-gun Democrat from western Pennsylvania, and Philadelphia liberals and socially liberal suburban Republicans refused to vote for him. But with Hoeffel will do excellent in Philadelphia, and suburban Republicans will take him over that nutcase as well. Toomey will get slaughtered everywhere except the "T".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voter registration doesn't really matter, do you know that democrats have a voter registration advantage in almost every southern state and until a few years ago Republicans had an advantage in most New England states.

Voter registration does matter because... [realises that arguing with CTguy is a waste of brain cells]

[CTguy]

Voter registration doesn't really matter, do you know that democrats have a voter registration advantage in almost every southern state and until a few years ago Republicans had an advantage in most New England states.

Voter registration does matter because... [realises that arguing with CTguy is a waste of brain cells]

No, you should know being you come from a state that is 2 to 1 democrat and Bush won it in 2000 and will win it again since it's full of rednecks.  Oh wait you wouldn't because you're unintelligent.

[© tweed]

Voter registration doesn't really matter, do you know that democrats have a voter registration advantage in almost every southern state and until a few years ago Republicans had an advantage in most New England states.

Voter registration does matter because... [realises that arguing with CTguy is a waste of brain cells]

No, you should know being you come from a state that is 2 to 1 democrat and Bush won it in 2000 and will win it again since it's full of rednecks.  Oh wait you wouldn't because you're unintelligent.

a. Realpolitik is not from WV
b. he is not stupid, he follows god damn polynesian elections
c. your debating skills die at personal insults

[angus]

Okay, I can't stand it anymore.  I have to ask.  CTguy, you're really a Republican, right?  Trying to create the nastiest stereotype of a snooty New England Democrat imaginable in order to create sympathy for the GOP?  Stop that, man, because I think it's beginning to do more harm than good.  On the other hand, if you're serious, and I hope like hell you're not, then you've proven the point I've been trying to make.  Either way, Al is one of the most imformed posters on this forum.  A bit sarcastic maybe, but definitely not a fool.  Don't you think art garfunkel was just dead weight to Paul Simon?  Well, so do I.  But Paul was nice enough to let him cruise.  Kinda like the Democrats do with you, assuming you really are a Democrat.

[CTguy]

Anyone from another country should not be posting as if they are from this country.  They corrupt American politics.